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Wildlife in a Changing Climate ESRM 150 6 December 2010 Josh Lawler School of Forest Resources, University of Washington

Wildlife in a Changing Climate ESRM 150 6 December 2010 Josh Lawler School of Forest Resources, University of Washington. Climate Change. IPCC 2007. IPCC 2007. IPCC 2007. Average global temperatures have risen 0.74 °C in past 100 years. IPCC 2007. Temperature trends 1979-2005.

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Wildlife in a Changing Climate ESRM 150 6 December 2010 Josh Lawler School of Forest Resources, University of Washington

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  1. Wildlife in a Changing Climate ESRM 150 6 December 2010 Josh Lawler School of Forest Resources, University of Washington

  2. Climate Change

  3. IPCC 2007

  4. IPCC 2007

  5. IPCC 2007

  6. Average global temperatures have risen 0.74 °C in past 100 years IPCC 2007

  7. Temperature trends 1979-2005 IPCC 2007

  8. IPCC 2007

  9. Future climate projections

  10. Temperatures predicted to rise 1.1 – 6.4 °C over the next 100 years (IPCC) IPCC 2007

  11. SRES A2 2020-2029 2090-2099 IPCC 2007

  12. Projected % change in precipitation 1980-1999 to 2090-2999 (IPCC) IPCC 2007

  13. IPCC 2007

  14. Climate Change Impacts • “We are not talking any more about what climate models say might happen in the future. We are experiencing dangerous human disruption of the global climate and we are going to experience more.” • – John Holdren, Past President, American Association for the Advancement of Science (Harrabin, BBC, 8/31/06)

  15. Physical effects of climate change

  16. Grinnell Glacier, Glacier National Park, Montana 1938 1981 110 glaciers have disappeared From GNP in the past 150 years Remaining 37 glaciers estimated to be gone by 2050 (Glacier National Park, www.nps.gov/glac) Key et al. 2002. Glacier retreat in Glacier National Park, Montana. In: Williams & Ferrigno (eds.) Satellite image atlas of glaciers of the world, Chapter J, Glaciers of North America. USGS Prof. Paper 1386-J.

  17. Trends in snow pack UW Climate Impacts Group

  18. Projected changes in April 1st snowpack UW Climate Impacts Group * Measured as SWE Historic = 1916-2006 average

  19. Sensitive watersheds Hamlet 2007

  20. Data from Westerling et al. 2006

  21. Area burned is projected to double by 2040 and triple by 2080. Probability of more than 2M acres burning in a single year: historic 5% 2080 33% UW Climate Impacts Group, Littell 2009

  22. Sea-level Rise Global: 0.2 - 0.6 m by 2100 (IPCC 2007) Puget Sound: 0.15 – 1.27 m by 2100 (UW CIG) Photo: Dr. W. Glamore

  23. Sea-level Rise +5 meters

  24. Ecological effects of climate change

  25. Earlier spring events

  26. Projected Climate-Induced Changes in Biota

  27. Modeling Shifts in Biota Climate projections Biotic distributions Bioclimatic models GCMs

  28. Historical Climate – MC1 Simulation (With Fire) Ron Neilson, USFS

  29. HADCM3-A Ron Neilson, USFS

  30. Environmental Change Research Group, Dept. of Geography, Univ. of Oregon. Climate data: CRU CL 1.0 (New et al. 1999); CRU data interpolation: P. J. Bartlein (Univ. of Oregon); HadCM2 (Mitchell and Johns 1997). Soil data: CONUS-SOIL (Miller and White 1998); Vegetation model: BIOME4 (Kaplan 2001), modified by S. Shafer (USGS).

  31. Environmental Change Research Group, Dept. of Geography, Univ. of Oregon. Climate data: CRU CL 1.0 (New et al. 1999); CRU data interpolation: P. J. Bartlein (Univ. of Oregon); HadCM2 (Mitchell and Johns 1997). Soil data: CONUS-SOIL (Miller and White 1998); Vegetation model: BIOME4 (Kaplan 2001), modified by S. Shafer (USGS).

  32. Environmental Change Research Group, Dept. of Geography, Univ. of Oregon. Climate data: CRU CL 1.0 (New et al. 1999); CRU data interpolation: P. J. Bartlein (Univ. of Oregon); HadCM2 (Mitchell and Johns 1997). Soil data: CONUS-SOIL (Miller and White 1998); Vegetation model: BIOME4 (Kaplan 2001), modified by S. Shafer (USGS).

  33. Environmental Change Research Group, Dept. of Geography, Univ. of Oregon. Climate data: CRU CL 1.0 (New et al. 1999); CRU data interpolation: P. J. Bartlein (Univ. of Oregon); HadCM2 (Mitchell and Johns 1997). Soil data: CONUS-SOIL (Miller and White 1998); Vegetation model: BIOME4 (Kaplan 2001), modified by S. Shafer (USGS).

  34. stable expansion contraction Northern Flying Squirrel (HADCM3 A1B)

  35. stable expansion contraction Douglas Squirrel (HADCM3 A1B)

  36. stable expansion contraction Northern Goshawk (HADCM3 A1B)

  37. Species change lower (B1) mid (A1B) mid-high (A2) 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 275 % change

  38. Faunal change in the national parks

  39. “to conserve the scenery and the natural and historic objects and the wildlife therein and to provide for the enjoyment of the same in such manner and by such means as will leave them unimpaired for the enjoyment of future generations.” - U.S. National Park System Organic Act

  40. Everglades NP North Cascades NP Species Change in National Parks Max = 61% Mean = 22% (sd= 9%) Min = 8% % Change Parks

  41. Species Change in National Parks % Change Parks

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