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ALTERNATIVE STRATEGIES FOR ACCOMMODATING FUTURE AVIATION DEMAND

Association of Bay Area Governments. Bay Conservation Development Commission. ALTERNATIVE STRATEGIES FOR ACCOMMODATING FUTURE AVIATION DEMAND. Prepared for: Regional Airport Planning Committee. November 20, 2009. Presentation Topics. Airport Traffic Redistribution

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ALTERNATIVE STRATEGIES FOR ACCOMMODATING FUTURE AVIATION DEMAND

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  1. Association ofBay Area Governments Bay ConservationDevelopment Commission ALTERNATIVE STRATEGIES FOR ACCOMMODATING FUTURE AVIATION DEMAND Prepared for: Regional Airport Planning Committee November 20, 2009

  2. Presentation Topics • Airport Traffic Redistribution • Potential Passenger Recapture by External Airports • Air Traffic Control Technologies • Demand Management

  3. Critical Study Questions • What Are the Capacity Limits of the Primary Bay Area Airports? • When Are These Limits Likely to Be Reached? • What Strategies Offer the Greatest Potential to Allow the Region to Efficiently Accommodate Future Aviation Demand? • Redistribution of Traffic Between the Primary Airports • Secondary Airports • Out-of Region airports to be reviewed today • New ATC Technologies • Demand Management • High Speed Rail • GA Reliever Airports

  4. Airport Redistribution Scenario

  5. Purpose for Redistribution Scenario • If New ATC and/or Demand Management Cannot Successfully Mitigate the High Levels of Demand and Delay Forecasted for SFO in 2035, it is Likely that Some Traffic Would Shift to Other Primary Airports • Traffic Most Likely to Shift Would be Domestic O&D Passengers Forecast SFO Traffic Mix 2035 7.7.M 30.0M 26.7M /1 Includes domestic to international connecting passengers

  6. Based on the Unconstrained Forecasts, Average SFO Delays will Exceed 20 Minutes by 2035 SFO Average Delays Minutes Annual Operations (000) Notes: “Midpoint” = the average of 2020 and 2035 operations

  7. The Build-Up of Delays at SFO Will Encourage a Shift of Demand to OAK and SJC • Excessive Delays at SFO will Produce Added Costs to Airlines and Passengers • Heavy Congestion and Delays at SFO will Create Incentives for Airlines and Passengers to Make Greater Use of Available Capacity at OAK and SJC • The Degree of Traffic Redistribution will Depend on Airline Decisions to Expand Services at Competitive Fares at OAK and SJC • However, Airline Decisions are Based on Expected Profitability—Not on Best Accommodating Future Bay Area Aviation Demand

  8. When SFO was Heavily Delayed in the 1990’s, OAK and SJC Increased Their Shares of Bay Area Regional Demand • Throughout the 1990’s, SFO was One of the Most Heavily Delayed Airports in the U.S. • These Delays Contributed to Service Expansion and Increased Traffic Shares at OAK and SJC • OAK Increased its Share of Bay Area Domestic O&D Passengers from 20% in the Late 1990’s Up to a Peak of 33% from 2003 to 2006 • SJC Share Gains were Less Pronounced (from approx. 22% up to 26% in 2002) • The Share Gains Experienced at OAK and SJC Occurred Gradually, and Lagged the Onset of Serious SFO Delays by Several Years

  9. SFO OAK SJC However, the Share Gains Experienced at OAK and SJC Have Been Completely Eroded by Recent Developments Primary Airport Shares of Bay Area Domestic O&D Passengers CY 1990 – CY 2009 The 2007 Entry of Southwest Airlines, Virgin America and JetBlue Produced a Major Increase in SFO’s Share of Bay Area Domestic Passengers Source: ACI-NA Airport Traffic Statistics; Airport Data

  10. We Expect that a Future Redistribution of Bay Area Traffic will Largely Mirror What has Occurred in the Past • Excessive Congestion and Delays at SFO will Lead to Slowing of Growth • Airlines and Passengers will Find OAK and SJC Relatively More Attractive, Leading to Increases in Domestic Services and Traffic Shares at Both Airports • Airline Decisions which will Drive Redistribution between the Primary Airports Cannot Be Predicted with Any Degree of Certainty • For the Redistribution Scenario, We have Assumed that Both OAK and SJC Return to Their Historic Peak Shares of Bay Area Domestic Traffic • OAK Peak Historic Share: 33% • SJC Peak Historic Share: 26%/1 /1 Excludes CY2001 due to the impacts of 9-11.

  11. We Expect Redistribution to Produce a Meaningful Shift in Airport Utilization by Bay Area Domestic Passengers SFO Share of Bay Area Domestic O&D Passengers OAK Share of Bay Area Domestic O&D Passengers SJC Share of Bay Area Domestic O&D Passengers 2035 Unconstr. 2035 w/ Redistr. 2035 Unconstr. 2035 w/ Redistr. 2035 Unconstr. 2035 w/ Redistr. 2009E 2009E 2009E Source: SH&E Analysis

  12. The Redistribution Scenario Reduces SFO Passenger Demand from 64M to 60M in 2035, Shifting Over 4 Million Passengers to OAK and SJC Forecast Airport Passengers2035 Millions of Passengers

  13. After Redistribution, SFO’s Share of Bay Area Domestic O&D and Total Passengers will Decline 2035 Airport Passengers Shares Unconstrained Forecast vs. Redistribution Scenario Domestic Local Passengers Total Passengers

  14. External Airports Analysis

  15. In Addition to Internal Airports, Three Nearby External Airports Were Also Analyzed for Their Ability to Reduce Passenger Demand at the Primary Bay Area Airports Sacramento Sonoma Bay Area Airports Napa Travis Primary Airport Internal Secondary Airport External Secondary Airport Gnoss Field Buchanan Stockton Byron Oakland Livermore SanFrancisco Moffett Field Half Moon Bay San Jose South County Monterey

  16. The External Airports Vary Widely in their Current Size and Air Service Levels • Sacramento International Airport • 10,000,000 passengers in 2008 • 138 daily nonstop departures to 28 destinations • Southwest Airlines provides 59% of daily seats • Monterey Peninsula Airport • 427,000 passengers in 2008 • 17 daily nonstop departures to 6 destinations • Served by United, American, US Airways and Allegiant • Stockton Metropolitan Airport • 59,000 passengers in 2008 • 3 weekly nonstop departures to Las Vegas • Served by Allegiant

  17. General Approach for Estimating External Airports Recapture from Bay Area Airports • Coordinated with Each Airport to Collect Latest Studies • Market demand studies • Leakage analyses • Air passenger surveys • Forecasts • Air service targets • Forecast New Nonstop Service Potential at External Airports • Quantified How Many Passengers the New and Expanded Services Could Recapture From the Primary Bay Area Airports • Estimated the Corresponding Reduction in Aircraft Operations at the Primary Bay Area Airports

  18. According to a Sacramento Leakage Study, 26% of Catchment Area Passengers Use a Bay Area Airport Airports Used by Passengers Originating in the Sacramento Catchment Area2005 Note: Based on 17-county primary and secondary air service areas. Source: Sabre, Sacramento International Airport Catchment Area Analysis, May 2005.

  19. For Sacramento, We Evaluated the Feasibility of New Nonstop Services to 12 Destinations, Largely Transcontinental and Transborder Markets Potential New Nonstop Markets from Sacramento

  20. In 2035, New Services at Sacramento Could Recapture 612,000 Passengers from the Primary Bay Area Airports Estimated Sacramento Passenger Recapture from the Bay Area Airports 2020 and 2035 Passengers Over Half of the Passenger Recapture Would be from OAK Note: Individual airport passengers may not add to totals because of rounding.

  21. 73% of Monterey’s Catchment Area Passengers Use a Bay Area Airport Airports Used by Passengers Originating in the Monterey Catchment Area2004 2008 Monterey Catchment Area O&D Passengers = 1.6M Source: SH&E, Monterey Peninsula Airport Leakage Study, November 2004.

  22. Seattle Portland 1,000 Miles Salt Lake City Denver LosAngeles LasVegas High Density Local Markets Airline Connecting Hubs (#) = Bay Area O&D Market Rank San Diego Phoenix We Evaluated New or Additional Nonstop Services from Monterey to High- Density, Short-Haul Markets and Airline Connecting Hubs Candidate Markets for New Nonstop or Additional Services from Monterey Monterey’s Existing Nonstop Services Monterey * Less than daily service, operated 2 times weekly with 150-seat aircraft (300 weekly seats).

  23. In 2035, Expanded Monterey Air Services Could Recapture Nearly 1M Passengers from Bay Area Airports, Primarily from SJC Estimated Monterey Passenger Recapture from the Bay Area Airports2020 and 2035 Passengers (Millions) 71% of the Passenger Recapture Would be from SJC

  24. Approximately 37% of Stockton’s Catchment Area Passengers Use a Bay Area Airport Airports Used by Passengers Originating in the Stockton Catchment Area 2007 Stockton Catchment Area O&D Passengers = 890,000 Source: Stockton Metropolitan Airport, Draft Master Plan Update, October 12, 2009 California Regional Air Service Plan, Execution Plan Final Report Appendix A/B, May 30, 2007

  25. Seattle Portland 1,000 Miles Salt Lake City Stockton Denver LosAngeles LasVegas High Density Local Markets Airline Connecting Hubs San Diego Phoenix Two Scenarios for Air Service Development at Stockton Stockton’s Existing Nonstop Services • Medium Growth Scenario • Allegiant adds additional weekly frequencies to LAS in 2020 • Allegiant adds a second destination in 2011 • High Growth Scenario • In addition to Medium Growth assumptions, Stockton attracts services to additional destinations by Allegiant and/or mainline regional carriers * Increasing to 4-5 weekly departures in February 2010.

  26. Since More than Half of Stockton’s Traffic Leaks to Sacramento, Stockton’s Recapture Would Only Reduce Bay Area Passenger Demand by 34,000 to 97,000 in 2035 Estimated Stockton Passenger Recapture from the Bay Area Airports2020 and 2035 Passengers Medium Growth High Growth

  27. Total Passenger Recapture by the Three External Airports Could Reduce Demand at the Bay Area Airports by 1.7M Passengers Reduction in Bay Area Airport Passengers as a Result of Passenger Recapture by the External Airports2035 Passengers 1,705,000 47% 997,000 26% 612,000 27% 97,000 Note: Stockton based on High Growth forecast. Airport totals may not add to Total due to rounding.

  28. AircraftOperations 15,600 Annual Operations 7,400(20) Avg. Daily Operations 9,200 3,900(11) 5,600 4,300(12) 1,000 Aircraft Demand Could be Reduced by 15,600 Annual Operations Reduction in Bay Area Airport Operations as a Result of Passenger Recapture by the External Airports2035 Note: Stockton based on High Growth forecast. Airport totals may not add to Total due to rounding.

  29. In 2035, Combined Recapture by the External and Internal Airports Could Reduce Passenger Demand at the Primary Airports by 4.3M and Aircraft Operations by 39,000 Reduction in Aviation Demand at the Primary Bay Area Airportsas a Result of Air Passenger Service Expansion at the Secondary Airports2020 and 2035

  30. Expansion by External and Internal Airports Could Reduce Activity at the Bay Area Airports by Only 3-4%, and SFO Activity by Less than 3% Reduction in Bay Area Airport Activity as a Result of Passenger Recaptureby the Internal and External Airports2035 -2.6% -2.7% -4.8% -3.3% -8.9% -5.2% Passengers Aircraft Operations

  31. Next Steps for Alternative Airports Scenario • Review Recapture Estimates with Individual Airports • Assess Impact of Combined Internal and External Airport Alternatives on Bay Area Airports: • Runway Capacity and Delays • Air Quality Emissions and Green House Gases • Noise Emissions

  32. New ATC Technology Scenario

  33. Air Traffic Control Technologies Will be Assessed as Potential Tools for Allowing the Region to Better Accommodate Future Aviation Demand The Regional Airport System Analysis Update Will: • Identify a Set of Promising and Realistic ATC Technologies to Reduce Future Airport Congestion at SFO, OAK and SJC • ATC Technology Working Group has Identified Likely ATC Improvements at SFO, OAK & SJC • Estimate the Impacts of Improved ATC Technology on Airport Capacity and Delays

  34. Future Runway Capacity Conditions at Bay Area Airports • Baseline Airfield Capacity/Delay Analysis was Conducted for SFO, OAK & SJC for 2007, 2020 & 2035 • SFO Will Reach Capacity Between 2020 and 2035 • OAK Will Reach Capacity Shortly After 2035 • SJC Has Adequate Capacity Well Beyond 2035

  35. SFO: Baseline and Forecast Average Weekday Operating Profile Average Weekday Aircraft Operations by HourBaseline 2007 and Base Case Forecast 2020 and 2035 Hourly Operations 2035 VFR Capacity = 100 2035 IFR Capacity = 61 Notes: 2007 capacities = 95 VFR and 56 IFR; 2020 capacities = 99 VFR and 61 IFR

  36. OAK: Baseline and Forecast Average Weekday Operating Profile Average Weekday Aircraft Operations by HourBaseline 2007 and Base Case Forecast 2020 and 2035 Hourly Operations 2035 VFR Capacity = 85 2035 IFR Capacity = 54 Notes: 2007 capacities = 105 VFR and 55 IFR; 2020 capacities = 88 VFR and 54 IFR

  37. SJC: Baseline and Forecast Average Weekday Operating Profile Average Weekday Aircraft Operations by HourBaseline 2007 and Base Case Forecast 2020 and 2035 Hourly Operations 2035 VFR Capacity = 103 2035 IFR Capacity = 59 Notes: 2007 capacities = 92 VFR and 54 IFR; 2020 capacities = 98 VFR and 59 IFR

  38. How ATC Improvements Can Increase Airport Capacity • Reduce required aircraft separations • Wake Vortex Advisory System (WVAS) • Airport Surface Detection Equipment (ASDE-X) • Increase precision of aircraft tracking • Required Navigational Performance (RNP) • Increase precision of ATC spacing of aircraft • Center-TRACON Automation System (CTAS) • Extend the weather envelope when procedures can be used • Enhanced Simultaneous Offset Instrument Approach (SOIA) • Cockpit Display of Traffic Information Assisted Visual Separation (CAVS) • IFR Paired Approaches

  39. ATC Technology Initiatives with Potential Capacity Benefits at All Bay Area Airports 2020 • Center-TRACON Automation System (CTAS) • Reduce approach separation variations • Airport Surface Detection Equipment (ASDE-X) • Enhance taxiway flows and reduce runway conflicts under non-visual conditions • Required Navigational Performance (RNP) • Permit more flexible and efficient arrival/departure routes. Increase departure airspace capacity. 2035 • Cockpit Display of Traffic Information Assisted Visual Separation (CAVS) • Reduce aircraft separations in non-visual conditions • Significantly reduce the problems caused by IFR weather today • Wake Vortex Advisory System (WVAS) • Reduce wake vortex separations under certain wind conditions

  40. ATC Technology Initiatives with Specific Capacity Benefits at SFO and OAK 2020 - SFO • Enhanced Simultaneous Offset Instrument Approaches (SOIA) • Reduce minimum ceiling to 1,600 ft from 2,100 ft today • Will enable SOIA operations to be conducted more frequently increasing arrivals during marginal weather conditions 2035 - SFO • Development of Paired Approach Instrument Procedures • Use of Automated Dependent Surveillance – Broadcast (ADS-B) coupled to aircraft flight management systems and Cockpit Display of Traffic Information (CDTI) to allow paired approaches to continue under instrument weather conditions 2020 - OAK • Remove Instrument Landing System hold point on Runway 11 • Move ILS antenna or use RNP to reduce the existing large separations between landings and takeoffs under non-visual conditions during Southeast Plan operations • Should dramatically reduce the excessive delays that occur today under IFR conditions when landing from west to east

  41. 1 O 2 Scale NM Simultaneous Offset Instrument Approach Procedure to Runway 28R at SFO Comparison of SOIA, ILS 28R Geometry to Non-SOIA Runway 28 L/R Parallel Approaches 5,000 cloud layer SOIA glide slope 2,100 S M Bridge 15 NM Stabilized Approach Point (SOIA) SAP DARNE MAP (SOIA) 3,000 ft. separation San MateoBridge Precision Runway Monitor (PRM) No Transgression Zone (NTZ) 2,000 feet wide OKDUE SOIA No Transgression Zone PRM NTZ ILS 28R ILS 28L 28R ILS 28L ILS SOIA

  42. Continuous Descent Approach (CDA) • The study will also evaluate the potential environmental benefits of CDAs • Widespread use of CDAs requires most all of the new ATC/ATM technologies potentially available in 2035 or later • CDAs do not increase airport capacity; however they offer environmental benefits such as reduced fuel burn, reduced emissions, and lower noise farther away from airport runways

  43. There are a Number of Barriers to Full Implementation of New ATC Technologies • Aircraft equipage • Airlines’ need for financial payback on aircraft equipment investments • Lengthy certification process for new technologies (~ 7-10 years) • Pilot/controller training and acceptance Political Pressure will be Needed to Accelerate Deployment of Key Technologies for the Bay Area

  44. Next Steps • Assess the Impact of New ATC Alternatives on Bay Area Airports: • Runway Capacity and Delays • Air Quality Emissions and Green House Gases • Noise Emissions

  45. Demand Management Scenario

  46. There is Growing Recognition that Demand Management Mechanisms Must be Available to Airports to Meet Future System Demand Potential Demand Management Mechanisms • Slot Controls (DCA/LGA) • FAA Negotiated Caps (ORD/JFK/EWR) • Perimeter Rules (LGA/DCA/Love Field) • Passenger Caps (Orange County) • Direct Negotiations Between the Airport and the Airlines • Limits on Available Gates (LAX) • Minimum Aircraft Size Rules • Peak Period Pricing (BOS) • Explicitly Permitted at Congested Airports by New U.S. DOT Rates and Charges Policy Focus of Analysis is Not to Define a Specific Program, but Rather to Estimate the Potential Capacity and Delay Benefits that Demand Management Could Produce

  47. The Demand Management Scenario will be Focused on SFO, Since OAK and SJC are not Forecast to Incur Serious Delays

  48. New U.S. DOT Policy Permits Congested Airports to Use Pricing Tools to Increase Efficiency and Reduce Delay Airport Demand Management Programs Such as Peak Period Pricing Can Reduce Congestion and Delay by Creating Financial Incentives to: • Spread Flight Activity More Evenly Across the Day • Increase Aircraft Size (Upgauging)

  49. Current Operations at SFO Peak During the Late Morning and are Well Above the Airport’s IFR Capacity Weekday Scheduled Operations at SFO by Hour August 2009 2007 VFR Capacity = 95 2007 IFR Capacity = 56 Source: OAG Schedules

  50. By 2035, Late Morning Demand Will Exceed SFO’s Maximum VFR Capacity while IFR Capacity Will Be Exceeded Throughout the Day Average Weekday Aircraft Operations by HourBaseline 2007 and Base Case Forecast 2020 and 2035 Hourly Operations 2035 VFR Capacity = 100 2035 IFR Capacity = 61 Time of Day

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