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Incumbency effects and the personal vote under mixed-member electoral rules. The case of Hungary

Incumbency effects and the personal vote under mixed-member electoral rules. The case of Hungary. Zsófia Papp Centre for Social Sciences Hungarian Academy of Sciences Winners and Losers in the Elections of Eastern Europe Workshop 2 March 1 8, 201 4. Theoretical background.

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Incumbency effects and the personal vote under mixed-member electoral rules. The case of Hungary

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  1. Incumbency effects and the personal vote under mixed-member electoral rules. The case of Hungary ZsófiaPapp Centre for Social Sciences Hungarian Academy of Sciences Winners and Losers in the Elections of Eastern Europe Workshop 2 March 18, 2014

  2. Theoretical background The electoral connection • Representation (constituency orientation) • Personal vote • Personal voting as a form of accountability Explained by…. • Institutional incentives (electoral rules) • MP career (local and party background, previous electoral and legislative experience)

  3. The personal vote Students of personal vote assume that a certain proportion of votes cast for a candidate can be explained with variables beyond party affiliation, fixed characteristics of the voter and the trends in economics as well. These factors are derived from the qualifications, abilities, personal characteristics and the record of the candidate.

  4. Tentative research questions • Are incumbents more likely to be re-elected, in case party affiliation is controlled for? (dependentvariablefromEastPac) • To what extent does former legislative and electoral experience influence the vote percentage of SMD candidates? (dependent and independentvars) • How do electoral margins influence member attitudes and behaviour in parliament? (independentvars)

  5. EastPac variables available • vote percentage in SMDs • the ID of the electoral districts • party list position (only available for 2010) • dual candidacy • whether the candidate wins the seat • constituency level party vote (only available for 2010) Unit of analysis: the constituency

  6. Additional data • PARTIREP 2009 (parliament: 2006-2010, focus and style of representation, constituency service) • Comparative Candidate Survey 2010 (parliamentarians and candidates: 2010, focus and style of representation, campaign strategies) • OTKA dataset on parliamentary party candidates (local political background and party leadership positions of candidates from 1998 to 2014)

  7. Thank you!

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