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Part I How the electoral system works

Vital Issues Seminar 26 February 2009 Indonesia’s elections 2009: how the system works and what the parties stand for Dr Stephen Sherlock Dr Greg Fealy. Part I How the electoral system works. Indonesia is now a well functioning presidential democracy.

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Part I How the electoral system works

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  1. Vital Issues Seminar 26 February 2009 Indonesia’s elections 2009: how the system works and what the parties stand forDr Stephen SherlockDr Greg Fealy Part I How the electoral system works

  2. Indonesia is now a well functioning presidential democracy • Best functioning democracy in Southeast Asia (compare Thailand, Malaysia, Burma) • 1999 – will the election be free & fair and without violence? Will the military withdraw from politics? • 2004 – will direct presidential election succeed? • 2009 – refining & developing the system • Now in second stage of democratic governance reform – eg. Anti-corruption Commission, Constitutional Court

  3. 2009 – Year of voting frequently • There will be 5 (possibly 6) elections in 2009. • 9 April – Legislative elections • National Parliament (DPR) • Regional Representative Council (DPD) • Provincial “Parliaments” (DPRD-I) • District “Parliaments” (DPRD-II) • 8 July – Presidential elections (1st round) • 8 September – Presidential elections (2nd round) • Third parliamentary election (1999, 2004, 2009) • Second direct presidential election (2004, 2009)

  4. 9 April Elections DPR DPD DPRD – I DPRD – II Election results 2.5% threshold (seats) 20% threshold (president) Cow-trading (dagang sapi) 8 July 1st Round 50% threshold 20% in 66% provinces October MPR (DPR + DPD) inaugurates President & VP October DPR & DPD inaugurated 8 Sept 2nd Round 50% threshold 2009 elections cycle: parliamentary & presidential – 5 year fixed term 2014

  5. Year of voting: A mammoth undertaking • 171,068,667registered voters • East Java 29,294,127 West Papua 509,580 • 33 provinces • 489 districts (kabupaten/kota) • 77 electoral districts (daerah pemilihan) • 600,000 voting stations • 11,868 candidates in DPR • Administered by the independent General Elections Commission (KPU)

  6. 4 April – DPR (House of Representatives) • 560 Members (increased from 550) • Elected by proportional representation (PR) • Multi-member electoral districts (3 to 10 seats per district) • Parties win seats in proportion to their vote • Electoral districts cannot cross provincial boundaries • Large provinces have a number of districts – eg W. Java 11 districts with 6 to 10 seats (total = 91 seats) • Medium-sized provinces have fewer districts – eg Sth Sulawesi 3 districts with 7 to 9 seats (total = 24 seats) • Small provinces have 1 district – eg Maluku 1 district with 3 seats (total = 3 seats)

  7. Changes to the electoral system will have huge political effects • New regulations have changed the way the campaign is being fought • Will alter the composition of the DPR • Affect the way coalitions are formed for presidential candidates • Constitutional Court decisions on the electoral law have changed the rules of the game

  8. From “closed list” to “open list” PR • Gradual reform since 1999 election • In 1999 “closed list” system meant voters could only vote for a party. • Parties listed their candidates in strict order – ie those at the top would be elected. • Widely criticised for allowing domination by parties • MPs ignored their constituency • Many candidates bought their position on the party ticket • In 2004, voters could also vote for a candidate – but only if they also voted for the party (ie. invalid if they only chose a individual) • In 2004, only one seat was won through individual vote • Even though 52% of voters supported an individual

  9. 2009 electoral law moved further towards “open list” system • Voters could vote for candidate or party • Candidates who received 30%+ of a quota in personal votes would be put into a count for the allocation of seats • eg. if a party won 3 seats and had 2 candidates with 30%+, those 2 candidates would take up seats and the 3rd allocated to the candidate on No.1 on party list • Greatly increased the chances of election on personal votes, but still weighting for party list But…

  10. Constitutional Court ruled the law to be unconstitutional • Declared party list weighting to contrary to the Constitution • Candidates with the largest number of votes should be allocated seats • This system will greatly increase the no. of voters who vote for an individual • But it still leaves open the question of what to do with “party only” votes • Govt seems to be leaving to question to the KPU

  11. Const. Court ruling – the political effects • Campaign strategies completely changed - shifted from party focus to candidate focus • Previously dominated by national leaders, now by local candidates • candidates have demanded their money back from the party – position on party list no longer a valuable commodity • Candidates of same party competing against each other • reporting each other to election oversight body on alleged campaign violations • Govt. shifting decision-making responsibility to KPU has created uncertainty

  12. Other changes: Threshold for winning parliamentary seats • Only parties that win 2.5% of the total vote nationally are allocated seats • A party may win more than 2.5% in several electoral districts but not win seats because below national threshold • This regulation would remove all but one of the minor parties in the current DPR • Crescent Star Party (PBB) won 2.6% in 2004

  13. Affirmative action for women candidates • New electoral law says party lists must contain 30% female candidates • The sanction for non-compliance is weak • But all parties have complied • 1 in 3 candidates in a list should be female – ie not all women in “unwinnable” districts – “zipper” • “Zipper” rule was expected to increase chances for women candidates by placing them high on the party list • But Const. Court ruling has eliminated the effect

  14. Presidential election system • Candidates must be nominated by a political party or coalition of parties • Party or coalition must receive 20% of DPR seats or 25% of votes to nominate a candidate • Only Golkar & PDIP are likely to receive this level of support • Small parties will have to join with one of the 2 big parties or form a larger coalition • This will limit the number of candidates • In 2004 there were 6 candidates • In 2009 there could only be 4 candidates

  15. Party C Party B Party L Party F Party K Party J Party P Party E Party O Party A (eg. Golkar PDIP) Party N Party H Party M Party D (eg Dem) Party G (eg PKS) Coalition building for presidential candidates 20% threshold 1 2 3 4

  16. Presidential elections: factors in coalition-building • Big party in DPR with low-profile leader (eg Golkar) needs a ticket with high profile candidate (2004 Wiranto poor result) • PDIP may be tempted to think it has both • High profile candidate with small party (eg SBY) needs a ticket with a big party to meet 20% threshold • One of the two candidates must have strong financial backing (eg Kalla for SBY) • Balance of nationalist-Islam (eg SBY-Kalla, Megawati-Hasyim Muzadi, Wiranto-Salahuddin Wahid)

  17. Regional Representative Council (DPD) • Two legislative chambers, but not a bicameral system. • DPD has advisory powers only. • Can draft bills on regional matters to submit to the DPR • Can submit its opinions to the DPR on bills and on government policy on regional matters • But does not pass reject or amend bills • DPD an unusual combination of strong legitimacy from direct election but weak powers

  18. DPD – how it is elected • 128 seats • 4 seats per province, regardless of size • W. Java – population 36 m (9m/member) • N Maluku – population 1m (250,000/member) • DPD Members must be “individuals” – ie independents, not party representatives • “single non-transferable vote” (SNTV) system • Voters vote for one candidate from provincial list

  19. DPD – how it is elected (cont.)

  20. Regional legislative elections (DPRD) • Elections for provincial & district legislatures also occur 9 April (ie. 4 votes) • Elections for governors & district heads (Pilkada) held separately (E. Java this month) • Each province has assembly according to population – 35 to 100 seats • 11m or more – 100 seats (E.W.C. Java) • 9-11m – 85 seats (Banten) • 1m or less – 35 seats (W. Papua, N.Maluku)

  21. Presidential election system cont.. • Candidates must stand as a presidential-vice presidential joint ticket • Internationally, the pair will usually be from the same party, or close coalition • But all parties are small + threshold law • So candidate pairing is the process by which parties build coalitions • But this cannot happen until after DPR election • Result is speculation until close before election

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