David M. Legler U.S. CLIVAR Office U.S. Climate Variability and Predictability Program

1. Strategic Themes for US CLIVAR US CLIVAR Summit July 2009 David M. Legler U.S. CLIVAR Office U.S. Climate Variability and Predictability Program www.usclivar.org legler@usclivar.org

2. Need for Themes • Encourage new ideas/thoughts from you! • Identify most important (ie prioritize) scientific challenges US CLIVAR wants to address • Stimulate strategic (multi-year) thinking and planning • Encourage integration across US CLIVAR, & (where it makes sense) with other programs • Who cares? • Agencies: agency strategic plans, funding cycles • PIs: does US CLIVAR have any focus or interests that intersect my own? Should I get involved in/pay attention to US CLIVAR? • Other Programs (e.g. WCRP, Carbon Cycle, etc): What are US CLIVAR’s “implementation” activities? Do we share any interests? How can we better coordinate plans, and activities?

3. Current U.S. CLIVAR Themes (formerly Foci) I Drought II Decadal Variability/Predictions Science Themes Are Increasingly Being Motivated by Interactions with Service and Decision Making Communities

4. 2007 2009 2011 Drought • Activities (2-page summaries from Panels): • Physics/Mechanisms of drought-relevant processes: DRICOMP, some field campaigns • Attributing of causes of drought: ongoing activities in data assimilation; IESA; analyses of past droughts, etc • Predictability of drought: Drought Working Group experiments, links to Int’l modeling efforts • Observations: unclear….motivation for improved ocean and soil moisture observations? • Strategy (scope unclear, not formalized…) • Future activities (TBD…Working Group input…) What do we do to build on past successes? DRICOMP Drought WG - predictability What more?

5. Decadal Variability/Predictions • Activities (2-page summaries from Panels): • Physics/Mechanisms of “decadal” processes: ongoing analyses of observed/simulated decadal variability; some field campaigns (KESS, CLIMODE) • Attributing causes: Distinguishing natural from anthropogenic factors (Decadal Predictability Working Group), ongoing agency-sponsored research, AMOC • Predictability: Decadal Predictability Working Group diagnostics, AMOC • Observations: unclear… • Strategy (still early, not formalized except in AMOC Strategic Vision document….) • Future activities (analysis of CMIP5 runs? AMOC activities, further Working Group input…) Decadal Predictability WG 2009 2011 2013

6. What is a US CLIVAR Theme? Needs further input • Compelling topical area/challenge of coupled climate scientific research (motivated in part by needs of users and services communities) • Investment of time and energy is anticipated to hasten progress and provide some early payoffs • Sufficiently focused… • Intersects aims and interests of two or more Panels • Addresses mandates or missions of CLIVAR agency programs • Reflects readiness of research community to get involved and realize rapid initial payoff • Provides opportunities to engage communities and programs that need to work with CLIVAR to address key scientific frontiers • Guides/catalyzes US CLIVAR-lead activities for a minimum of 3-5 years (sufficient time to allow new activities to bear fruit)

7. Needs further input Planning • Guided by a set of questions • Guided by a Strategic vision (motivation, scope, overview of strategic directions) encapsulated in a 5-10 pg brief • Guiding questions addressed/assessed as a concluding action Implementation • Leverages funded research activities • Builds upon current capabilities and tools (eg models, observational networks, etc) • Employs US CLIVAR Working Groups and Panels. • Works closely with agencies to identify research gaps and seeks modest/limited agency support for additional research

8. Charge to Panels on Themes • Wed/Thurs: Develop and discuss potential Themes • Thurs evening Plenary Present top choices (3 max) • Thurs PM: Executive will determine overall top 3 candidates • Friday AM breakouts by 3 candidate Themes: develop further the strengths, possible scope, intersections with Panels, possible activities (e.g. Working Groups) • Friday Friday late AM: Breakout reports • SSC Meeting Friday late AM: Identify new theme(s)

9. Example Areas for ThemesMany of these are too broad, don’t restrict discussion to just these • Climate and (marine?) ecosystems • S/I Prediction of Tropical SSTs, including ENSO • Climate Analysis of the Earth System • Arctic climate changes/relationship to global system • Carbon cycle diagnosis/prediction (with Carbon Cycle Science Program?) • Extremes • Climate and Aerosols (some activities underway within WCRP) • Risk Assessment

10. Next Steps (post Summit) • Develop prospectus for new Working Group(s) for consideration (later this year) • Identify partnerships/linkages that need be established/nurtured… (USCPO and agencies can help) • Summit 2010 to center around new theme …

11. Discussion • What more can/should CLIVAR lead with regards to Drought? Scope of our efforts? • What follow-up activities will Panels take on? • Do we need another Working Group? • Do we just let other activities (Siegfried’s list) continue and revisit Drought later… • Themes • Sufficient motivation? • Attributes of a good Theme? • Desired outcomes clear?

14. What a US CLIVAR Theme Isn’t • A means to stimulate and coordinate routine ongoing research activities without focus and without an expressed intent of desired outcomes

15. Theme Life-Cycle? • Theme Identified • Working Group(s) to initiate focused activities and hold community workshop • Strategic Plan to carry on beyond WG