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1. Kathleen Dunmore
Three Dragons
13 October 2010 Modelling demand for older persons accommodation
3. Who moves into retirement housing 40% of movers into private newbuild retirement housing are couples and 60% are single people.
(London 84% and 16%)
75% of movers into social retirement housing (new and existing) are single people.
Often “distressed moves”
Movers are getting older 38% over 80, some over 100
Source RHG
4. Where do they come from
Movers into private retirement housing come from owner occupation
15% of movers into social rented retirement housing are owner-occupiers
For every 10 owner-occupiers who move into private retirement housing between 4 and 6 move into social rented retirement housing.
23% of movers into social rented retirement housing are already in specialist accommodation - CHURN
Source CORE England
5. What types of properties do they vacate In London, movers to new private retirement housing
66%+ from larger family house
34% from a 1 or 2 bed property
Most poorer owner occupiers cannot afford to buy outright in Inner London – but they can move to outer suburbs or beyond
Also look to social rented and shared ownership provision
Source RHG
6. POPPI - Population x age group, household type, health and frailty
CORE - Turnover of social rented older persons housing and characteristics of movers
EAC - Stock of retirement housing by tenure
NHBC - New supply of retirement housing
Secondary data
7. Building a model Taken from ORS SHMA data
27K sample
13.5K aged 50+
Over 1,500 in each 5-year band aged up to 75
1.4K aged 75-79; 1.1K aged 80-84; 0.8K aged 85+
Not necessarily representative – but provides good indicative evidence base
Housing circumstances
Housing history and expectations
Housing preferences Primary Data
8. Housing options considered by age of household 30-50% of 50-74 yr olds would consider a bungalow
10-20% of older households would consider retirement housing
Willingness to move diminishes with age – though need to do so may increase
Source ORS SHMA data Figures reported in the HSSA show that affordable housing delivery has varied from 193 units in 2001/02 to 563 units in 2005/06, averaging 343 dwellings pa
Market Housing has ranged from 3,268 units in 2005/06 up to 3,814 units in 2006/07, averaging 3,541 dwellings paFigures reported in the HSSA show that affordable housing delivery has varied from 193 units in 2001/02 to 563 units in 2005/06, averaging 343 dwellings pa
Market Housing has ranged from 3,268 units in 2005/06 up to 3,814 units in 2006/07, averaging 3,541 dwellings pa
9. Drivers to Moving Home Children leave family home
Home now under-occupied
Disposable income possibly increased
Continued ties to area (work, etc)
Retire from paid employment
Ties to area released – other factors become more important (quality of life, etc)
Income likely to reduce
Health deteriorates
Property type becomes more important
Loss of partner
No longer able to provide mutual support
Require more permanent care & support
Life cycle triggers
Change in circumstances
Companionship
Practical considerations
Health
Not an option for all but attractive to about 10% of older households
10. Housing Products General needs housing
Market and affordable housing
Encourage households to vacate family housing
Need a pull factor – what makes the offer better than the existing home
Smaller dwellings (or at least fewer bedrooms), easy maintenance, good quality, etc
When some support required
Market – retirement flats, LSE housing
Social – Sheltered Cat 1/2
Significant support required
Extra care
Meet need from
Working empty nesters (50-70)
Fit elderly (60-80)
Frail elderly (75+)
11.
By age 50 70% of owner-occupiers are under-occupying a family property
More than two-thirds of all households who are under-occupying housing are home owners
But- what housing choices do they have and can they afford to move?
Source: 2001 census
12. Current Supply
Mismatch with tenure
In London more than 80% of stock social rented
but
56%+ of older households are owner-occupiers
Source EAC and clg live table 109
13. Conclusions Within plan policy period demand for retirement housing will exceed current supply
There is already a mismatch by tenure between demand and supply
But affordability is linked to income as well as capital.
Minimal provision for working empty nesters and the fit elderly – what would they aspire to live in – and where?