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Modelling demand for older persons accommodation

Modelling demand for older persons accommodation. Kathleen Dunmore Three Dragons 13 October 2010. Themes. Who moves to retirement housing? What is potential demand across the range of older households Are we supplying the right products

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Modelling demand for older persons accommodation

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  1. Modelling demand for older persons accommodation Kathleen Dunmore Three Dragons 13 October 2010

  2. Themes • Who moves to retirement housing? • What is potential demand across the range of older households • Are we supplying the right products • Is there an affordability problem – and if so for whom Review of evidence Questions that need answers

  3. Who moves into retirement housing 40% of movers into private newbuild retirement housing are couples and 60% are single people. (London 84% and 16%) 75% of movers into social retirement housing (new and existing) are single people. Often “distressed moves” Movers are getting older 38% over 80, some over 100 Source RHG

  4. Movers into private retirement housing come from owner occupation 15% of movers into social rented retirement housing are owner-occupiers For every 10 owner-occupiers who move into private retirement housing between 4 and 6 move into social rented retirement housing. 23% of movers into social rented retirement housing are already in specialist accommodation - CHURN Source CORE England previous tenure movers to social rented retirement housing social rent O/O 20% 15% private rent 12% Other 30% Housing for older people 23% Where do they come from

  5. What types of properties do they vacate • In London, movers to new private retirement housing • 66%+ from larger family house • 34% from a 1 or 2 bed property • Most poorer owner occupiers cannot afford to buy outright in Inner London – but they can move to outer suburbs or beyond • Also look to social rented and shared ownership provision Source RHG

  6. Building a model • POPPI - Population x age group, household type, health and frailty • CORE - Turnover of social rented older persons housing and characteristics of movers • EAC - Stock of retirement housing by tenure • NHBC - New supply of retirement housing Secondary dataNos. and trends All available at LA, County and Regional level

  7. Building a model • Taken from ORS SHMA data • 27K sample • 13.5K aged 50+ • Over 1,500 in each 5-year band aged up to 75 • 1.4K aged 75-79; 1.1K aged 80-84; 0.8K aged 85+ • Not necessarily representative – but provides good indicative evidence base • Housing circumstances • Housing history and expectations • Housing preferences Primary DataConsumer preferences

  8. Housing options considered by age of household 30-50% of 50-74 yr olds would consider a bungalow 10-20% of older households would consider retirement housing Willingness to move diminishes with age – though need to do so may increase Source ORS SHMA data

  9. Drivers to Moving Home • Children leave family home • Home now under-occupied • Disposable income possibly increased • Continued ties to area (work, etc) • Retire from paid employment • Ties to area released – other factors become more important (quality of life, etc) • Income likely to reduce • Health deteriorates • Property type becomes more important • Loss of partner • No longer able to provide mutual support • Require more permanent care & support Life cycle triggers Change in circumstances Companionship Practical considerations Health Not an option for all but attractive to about 10% of older households

  10. Housing Products • General needs housing • Market and affordable housing • Encourage households to vacate family housing • Need a pull factor – what makes the offer better than the existing home • Smaller dwellings (or at least fewer bedrooms), easy maintenance, good quality, etc • When some support required • Market – retirement flats, LSE housing • Social – Sheltered Cat 1/2 • Significant support required • Extra care Meet need from Working empty nesters (50-70) Fit elderly (60-80) Frail elderly (75+)

  11. Under-occupancy among over 50s By age 50 70% of owner-occupiers are under-occupying a family property More than two-thirds of all households who are under-occupying housing are home owners But- what housing choices do they have and can they afford to move? Source: 2001 census

  12. Current Supply Mismatch with tenure In London more than 80% of stock social rented but 56%+ of older households are owner-occupiers Source EAC and clg live table 109

  13. Conclusions • Within plan policy period demand for retirement housing will exceed current supply • There is already a mismatch by tenure between demand and supply • But affordability is linked to income as well as capital. • Minimal provision for working empty nesters and the fit elderly – what would they aspire to live in – and where?

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