NRC Committee on the Assessment of the National Weather Service's Modernization Program

1. NRC Committee on the Assessment of the National Weather Service's Modernization Program Dr. Louis W. Uccellini National Centers for Environmental Prediction Director “Where America’s Climate, Weather, Ocean and Space Weather Services Begin” February 9, 2012

2. Outline • Short Term Activities (FY12-13) • New Building • Computer Upgrade • AWIPS II Conversion • Longer Term Activities • Support O2R (NCEP models running on research computers) • Expanding applications of multi-model ensembles (MME) • Expansion of operational models from space weather to ocean/coastal • Streamlining implementation process • Summary

3. Major Thrusts for 2012 Major Tactical Efforts • Once in a Lifetime • Move to NCWCP • Once in a Career • AWIPS2 Transition • Once in a Decade • Central Computer System (CCS) Transition and Acquisition (Bridge/New Contract) All occur in FY2012!

4. NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction • Four-story, 268,762 square foot building in Riverdale, MD will house 800+ Federal employees, and contractors • 5 NCEP Centers (NCO, EMC, HPC, OPC, CPC) • NESDIS Center for Satellite Applications and Research (STAR) • NESDIS Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB) • OAR Air Resources Laboratory • Includes 40 spaces for visiting scientists • Includes 468 seat auditorium/ conference center, library, deli, fitness center and health unit

5. History of Construction • Groundbreaking March 2006 • Construction start May 2007 • Construction halted December 2008 - NCWCP construction 80% complete • In May 2009, the developer filed a claim in Federal Court to recover “damages” from the Government • In June 2009, the developer filed for bankruptcy with the County Court • The Federal Court dismissed all remaining claims filed by the developer on February 9, 2011 • These actions cleared away all remaining legal obstacles for the restart of work on the NCWCP project • Work restarted April 6, 2011

6. Move Schedule • February 2, 2012 – data center setup began! • August 2012 – begin phased move-in • Front offices • Non-operational groups • August 2012 – dual operations • October 2012 – complete move • September/October 2012 – ribbon-cutting ceremony February 2, 2012 February 2, 2012 Data Center at NCWCP

7. Computer Upgrade

8. Weather and Climate Operational Supercomputing System WCOSS Milestones Overview FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 Bridge Contract with IBM – Current Systems New Contract/Task Orders with IBM – New Systems Operations Major Milestones Transition activities

9. WCOSS OverviewWeather and Climate Operational Supercomputing System • Current Systems under the Bridge contract • Two IBM Power/P6 systems • Gaithersburg, MD • Fairmont, WV • New systems under the new ID/IQ contract • Two IBM systems • Architecture and size TBD • Undergoing task order contract actions • Reston, VA • Orlando, FL

10. NAWIPS to AWIPS II Conversion Status You are here You are here Multi-panel Display Product Generation NSHARP Baselined

11. Longer Term Activities

12. Supporting O2RNOAA Models/Computer Resources • Recent changes supporting operational code on 5 computers in U.S. • Three organizations in India running NCEP CFS and GFS models • Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM) • India's National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF) • Indian National Center for Ocean Information Services • Focus on seasonal-daily monsoon predictions

14. R&D HPC Overview Gaea Zeus Fairmont, WV Total capacity: 24,084 cores 333 TFlops NCEP allocation 44.8%: 10,790 cores 149 TFlops Next Major Event: Feb 2012 – System acceptance Oak Ridge, TN Total capacity: ~77,800 cores 1.1 PFlops NCEP allocation 6.2%: ~4,800cores 68.2 TFlops Next Major Event: Jan 2012 - Full processor replacement NCEP Utilization of NOAA R&D HPC - NCEP HPC RAC - v2012.01.10.v1

15. NOAA Seamless Suite of ForecastProducts Spanning Climate and Weather:Expanding Applications of MME Outlook Guidance Threats Assessments Forecast Lead Time Forecasts Watches Warnings & Alert Coordination Benefits NCEP Model Perspective Forecast Uncertainty Years Seasons Months EUROSIP Climate Forecast System 2 Week North American Ensemble Forecast System Climate/Weather Linkage 1 Week Ocean Model HYCOM Wave Watch III Global Forecast System Short-Range Ensemble Forecast Days GLOFS Bays Chesapeake Tampa Delaware North American Forecast Hours Hurricane – GFDL, WRF Rapid Update Cycle for Aviation Minutes NARRE Health Maritime Aviation Agriculture Recreation Commerce Ecosystem Hydropower Environment Fire Weather Life & Property Emergency Mgmt Energy Planning Space Operations Reservoir Control

16. NOAA’s NWS Model Production SuiteExpansion into Space Weather and Coastal Prediction Oceans HYCOM WaveWatch III Forecast Climate NOS PORTS GLOFS Chesapeake Tampa Delaware ADCIRC CFSv2 MOM4 NOAH Sea Ice Hurricane GFDL HWRF Coupled 1.7B Obs/Day Coupled (Future) Satellites + Radar 99.9% Dispersion ARL/HYSPLIT Regional NAM WRF NMM Regional DA Global Forecast System Global Data Assimilation Hybrid Severe Weather WRF NMM/ARW Workstation WRF Short-Range Ensemble Forecast Space Weather (Future) North American Ensemble Forecast System Regional DA WRF: ARW, NMM ETA, RSM Air Quality GFS, Canadian Global Model ENLIL NAM/CMAQ Rapid Update for Aviation 16 16 NOAH Land Surface Model

17. NOAA’s NWS Model Production SuiteContributions from Outside of NCEP Oceans HYCOM WaveWatch III Forecast Climate NOS PORTS GLOFS Chesapeake Tampa Delaware ADCIRC CFSv2 MOM4 NOAH Sea Ice Hurricane GFDL HWRF Coupled 1.7B Obs/Day Coupled (Future) Satellites + Radar 99.9% Dispersion ARL/HYSPLIT Regional NAM WRF NMM Regional DA Global Forecast System Global Data Assimilation Hybrid Severe Weather WRF NMM/ARW Workstation WRF Short-Range Ensemble Forecast Space Weather (Future) North American Ensemble Forecast System Regional DA WRF: ARW, NMM ETA, RSM Air Quality GFS, Canadian Global Model ENLIL NAM/CMAQ Rapid Update for Aviation 17 17 NOAH Land Surface Model

19. Streamline Implementation Process

20. NOAA Research and Development Funnel • NOAA is working on: • Research to Operations Policy (complete) • An overarching view of NOAA's research and development that provides criteria for research location • A better understanding of how to apportion resource allocations Reference - “Research Location in NOAA: Physical and Social Sciences”. March 2006, 72 pp.

21. Schematics in the Model Transition Process EMC and NCO have critical roles in the transition from NOAA R&D to operations Other Agencies & International Effort Service Centers Field Offices EMC NOAA Research NCO EMC ASI, COLA, ARCS Observation System Life cycle Support Service Centers User OPS Test Beds JCSDA CTB WRF DTC JHT Operations R&D Delivery Operations to Research Transition from Research to Operations Launch List – Model Implementation Process Concept of Operations Requirements Criteria Forecast benefits, Efficiency, IT Compatibility, Sustainability

22. Applying the “Funnel” to the Transition Process 1. Large “volume” of R&D, funded through AOs, Agency Labs… 2. Smaller set of R&D products suitable for operations. 3. Systematic transition steps Research-to-Operations (R2O). Deliver skill-optimized forecast products founded on CTB-based innovation and& customer feedback; Bring in customer requests 4. Systematic transition steps Operations-to-Applications (O2A). 5. Delivery of products to the diverse community and customer feedback 2 R2O NOAA is well positioned to provide an operational infra-structure for the transition processes N C E P 1 R&D Community CTB CPC O2R 3 EMC/ GFDL CFS OPERATIONS 4 R2O O2A User Community 5 CTB role: facilitate transitions for the CPC specific product range (6-10 day, week 2, monthly, seasonal)

23. Streamlining Implementation Process EMC NCO

24. Streamlining Implementation Process EMC NCO

25. Streamlining Implementation Process • Net Result • Saving time(months/year) • Making process simpler by eliminating confusion/barriers to the outside (cited by UCAR Review) • Allowing for an increase in implementations per year

26. Summary • Intense focus on FY12 tactical issues • Building move • Computer upgrade • AWIPS II conversion • All activities noted above have major strategic importance • NCEP supporting O2R to accelerate R2O • We still have work to do/resources to allocate to address full role of NCEP in Roadmap plans (HFIP, NextGen)