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Application of NOAA/NWS/NCEP Model Products for Atmospheric Transport and Dispersion

Application of NOAA/NWS/NCEP Model Products for Atmospheric Transport and Dispersion. Jeff McQueen, Dusan Jovic, Binbin Zhou, Marina Tsidulko, Perry Shafran and Jun Du June 26, 2007. NWS/NCEP Support of DOD Dispersion Modeling.

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Application of NOAA/NWS/NCEP Model Products for Atmospheric Transport and Dispersion

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  1. Application of NOAA/NWS/NCEP Model Products for Atmospheric Transport and Dispersion Jeff McQueen, Dusan Jovic, Binbin Zhou, Marina Tsidulko,Perry Shafran and Jun Du June 26, 2007

  2. NWS/NCEP Support of DOD Dispersion Modeling • Provide Ensemble Products to Drive DTRA Hazard Prediction Assessment Capability (HPAC) uncertainty estimates • Enhanced NCEP model products • Testing a High Resolution Ensemble System • Developing probabilistic verification capabilities • Evaluate WRF-NMM turbulence field performance • IHOP, DIPOLE case studies • Evaluate NCEP Model PBL performance • Add PBL height verification to NCEP FVS • Real-time high resolution WRF-NMM support • 2006 Torino Olympics nests, 2005 Inauguration nest

  3. Additional NCEP products for AT&D • On-Demand Homeland Security/Fire Wx Nests • On-demand real-time High Resolution WRF 3km Grid Runs • 26 pre-defined nests • Real-Time Mesoscale Analysis system (RTMA) • 2-D Variable data assimilation at the surface • hourly analyses at 5 km resolution • Analysis Of Record • Downscaled from NDAS analysis to provide high resolution climatology than 32 km Regional Reanalyses

  4. North American Model (NAM-WRF) North American Model (NAM) WRF run 4x/day at 12 km to 84 hours

  5. HRW Homeland Security Nests (26) WRF-NMM Model @ 4 km

  6. HiResWindow Fixed-Domain 4 km Runs • FOURroutine runs made at the same time every day • 00Z : ECentral & Hawaii • 06Z : Alaska & Puerto Rico • 12Z : ECentral & Hawaii • 18Z : WCentral & Puerto Rico • Everyone gets daily high resolution runs if & only if hurricane runs are not needed • To be implemented in Q4FY07 http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/nestpage/

  7. PT PDT PD Ps = PD + PDT + PT WRF-NMM Hybrid Vertical Coordinate SystemNative output to be available to tightly couple with HPAC

  8. HPAC multi-model simulationsFor Torino 2006 Olympics • WRF & MM5 Plumes • near Torino Olympics • Blue lines: HPAC • uncertainties w/ constant • large scale variances • Feb. 22, 2006 00Z release • (Case 5)

  9. Ensemble Covariance Productsuse to define plume uncertainty in HPAC Binbin Zhou, EMC http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/SREF_avia/TEST/web/html/variance.html EKE=0.5*(UUE+VVE+WWE) N UUE = 1/N ∑( Umij - Uij )2 N VVE = 1/N ∑( Vmij - Vij )2 N UVE = 1/N ∑( Umij - Uij )( Vmij - Vij ) N WWE = 1/N ∑( Wmij - Wij )2 Ensemble mean sensible heat flux Ensemble mean latent heat flux U and V spread

  10. Met Ensembles for ATDHREF 12 km • 10 WRF members configured for Eastern U.S. • 12 km DX, 48 hour forecasts, 2x/day (06 & 18 Z) • 5 WRF NMM members (1 control, 2 breeding pairs) • Physics: YSU PBL, Kain-Fritsch Convection, RRTM radiation • 5 WRF NMM members (1 control, 2 breeding pairs) • Physics: MYJ TKE, Betts-Miller-J convection, GFDL radiation • Synoptic diversity: LBC & Breeding • Breeding: 12 hour forecast differences to drive IC perturbations • LBC – 3 hrly : • GENS 1-4 ET members for 2 NMM perturbed pairs • GENS 5-8 ET members for 2 ARW perturbed pairs • GENS Ctl for NMM and ARW control • Test Output Files on pressure and native vertical levels

  11. Met Ensembles for ATDHREF 12 km mean/spread 10 m Winds 850 mb Winds 10 m wind NMM-Ctl

  12. HREF Verification • SREF-32km 21 member (solid lines) vs HREF-12km 9 member (dashed lines) at 24 and 48 forecasthours BIAS and RMSE

  13. Dispersion Ensemble Configurations1. One HPAC run (Ens. Median/variance)2. One HPAC run for each member3. One HPAC run for main clusters Mean AQFS Cluster SREF/HREF Cluster analysis can chose a smaller set of members statistically different from one another that correspond to the daily weather pattern.

  14. NCEP’s FVS Verification System • Input observations are from NCEP operational PREPBUFR files which include 1) radiosonde & dropsonde Z, temp, wind & moisture; 2) surface land & marine P, temp, wind, moisture observations; 3) ACARS & conventional aircraft wind, temp [moisture], and 4) Profiler winds. • Verified Fields include temperature, wind and moisture fields on pressure and shelter levels. • Recently added sensible weather (eg: Visibility) , wind shear, and PBL height • Grid verification of cloud cover using AFWA cloud cover products New FVS On-line System Web-based MYSQL Database

  15. NAM-WRF PBL evaluationusing TEXAQS06 profilers NAM PSD Longview Profiler SHV Raob Use of profilers as ground truth for raob derived Zi

  16. PBL Verification System Model output Observations Eta TKE PBL PBL height RAOB Profiler Mix Layer Ht WRF Ri PBL/no fluxes Aircraft Ri PBL/fluxes GFS PBL calculation Grib Format BUFR format RiCR= 0.25 Forecast Verification System Statistics

  17. NAMY Mean PBL height for July-August 2006 provided by ETA (black), WRF/NMM (green) and estimated with RAOBS data for Western US Mean PBL height for July-August 2006 provided by ETA (black), WRF/NMM (green) and estimated with RAOBS data for Shreveport LA

  18. SREF-21 Eta-KF SREF-CTL WRF ETA-BMJ Statistical Consistency (August 2006)48 hour Forecast Winds • Ratio: Mean Squared Error / Variance • best ~ 1 (Buizza, et al. 1999) • SREF-21 improved • WRF subset yields lowest statistical consistency compared to Eta subsets

  19. Future Work • Evaluate 12 km Relocatable HREF System • Add pbl & LSM diversity to initial condition diversity system • Compare against SREF, GENS & other ensemble systems • Add clustering algorithm to choose most diverse members • High Resolution Testing • Test the addition of a 4 km nest to HREF NMM control • Evaluate with DCNET and URBANET data • Provision of Products • Provision of ensemble median, wind variance and length scales to MDS for SCIPUFF sensitivity testing • Complete evaluation of WRF turbulence & PBL fields for coupling with HPAC w/ PSU • Improved PBL and probabilistic verification package

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