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Application of NOAA/NWS/NCEP Model Products for Atmospheric Transport and Dispersion

Application of NOAA/NWS/NCEP Model Products for Atmospheric Transport and Dispersion. Jeff McQueen, Dusan Jovic, Binbin Zhou, Marina Tsidulko, Perry Shafran Jun Du and Geoff DiMego December 17, 2007. NWS/NCEP Support of DOD Dispersion Modeling.

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Application of NOAA/NWS/NCEP Model Products for Atmospheric Transport and Dispersion

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  1. Application of NOAA/NWS/NCEP Model Products for Atmospheric Transport and Dispersion Jeff McQueen, Dusan Jovic, Binbin Zhou, Marina Tsidulko,Perry Shafran Jun Du and Geoff DiMego December 17, 2007

  2. NWS/NCEP Support of DOD Dispersion Modeling • Provide Ensemble Products to Drive DTRA Hazard Prediction Assessment Capability (HPAC) uncertainty estimates • Enhanced NCEP model products • Testing a High Resolution Ensemble System • Developing probabilistic verification capabilities • Evaluate WRF-NMM turbulence field performance • IHOP-2002, DIPOLE-1996 case studies • Evaluate NCEP Model PBL performance • Add PBL height verification to NCEP FVS • Real-time high resolution WRF-NMM support • 2006 Torino Olympics nests, 2005 Inauguration nest

  3. Additional NCEP products for AT&D • On-Demand Homeland Security/Fire Wx Nests • On-demand real-time High Resolution WRF 2.66 km Grid Runs • 26 pre-defined nests • Real-Time Mesoscale Analysis system (RTMA) • 2-D Variable data assimilation at the surface • hourly analyses at 5 km resolution • Analysis Of Record • Downscaled from NDAS analysis to provide high resolution climatology than 32 km Regional Reanalyses

  4. North American Model (NAM-WRF) North American Model (NAM) WRF run 4x/day at 12 km to 84 hours

  5. HRW Homeland Security Nests (26) WRF-NMM Model @ 4 km

  6. HiResWindow Fixed-Domain 4 km Runs • FOURroutine runs made at the same time every day • 00Z : ECentral & Hawaii • 06Z : Alaska & Puerto Rico • 12Z : ECentral & Hawaii • 18Z : WCentral & Puerto Rico • Everyone gets daily high resolution runs if & only if hurricane runs are not needed • To be implemented in Q4FY07 http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/nestpage/

  7. PT PDT PD Ps = PD + PDT + PT WRF-NMM Hybrid Vertical Coordinate SystemNative output to be available to tightly couple with HPAC

  8. HPAC multi-model simulationsFor Torino 2006 Olympics • WRF & MM5 Plumes • near Torino Olympics • Blue lines: HPAC • uncertainties w/ constant • large scale variances • Feb. 22, 2006 00Z release • (Case 5)

  9. IHOP Accomplishments2007 • NCEP WRF-NMM (12 km North American Domain) launcher used to produce boundary layer outputs • Reran May 28, June 5 and June 6, 2002 cases to produce time series files for all 16 IHOP sites

  10. DIPOLE PRIDE 1996 Dusan Jovic, EMC • WRF-NMM V2.2 • 12/4/1.3 km nest • NARR initial • conditions

  11. WRF-NMM DIPOLE Nested Domains 4 km Nest and topography 1.3 km Nest and topography

  12. WRF-NMM DIPOLE 24 hour ForecastsNovember 9, 1996 at 00 UTC 1.3 km Winds 4 km Nest Winds

  13. WRF-NMM DIPOLE 24 hour ForecastsNovember 9, 1996 at 00 UTC 1.3 km nest 2 m Temperature 4 km nest 2 m Temperature

  14. WRF-NMM DIPOLE 21h ForecastsNov. 8 , 21 Z 12 km PBL hgt 4 km PBL hgt 1.3 km PBL hgt

  15. Ensemble Covariance Productsuse to define plume uncertainty in HPAC Binbin Zhou, EMC http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/SREF_avia/TEST/web/html/variance.html EKE=0.5*(UUE+VVE+WWE) N UUE = 1/N ∑( Umij - Uij )2 N VVE = 1/N ∑( Vmij - Vij )2 N UVE = 1/N ∑( Umij - Uij )( Vmij - Vij ) N WWE = 1/N ∑( Wmij - Wij )2 Ensemble mean sensible heat flux Ensemble mean latent heat flux U and V spread UUE, VVE, UVE added to SREF operational files on Dec. 12, 2007

  16. SREF 30 hour forecast: 12/13/07 15 UTC 850 mb ensemble mean wind and spread 850 mb UU variance

  17. SREF 30 hour forecast: 12/13/07 15 UTC 10 m ensemble mean wind and spread (δ) 10 m ensemble wind co-variance

  18. Met Ensembles for ATDHREF 12 km Dusan Jovic, Binbin Zhou, EMC • 9 WRF-NMM members configured for Eastern U.S. • 12 km DX, 48 hour forecasts, 2x/day (00 and 12 Z) • 9 WRF NMM members (1 control, 4 breeding pairs) • Physics: MYJ TKE, Betts-Miller-J convection, GFDL radiation • Synoptic diversity: LBC & Breeding • Breeding: 12 hour forecast differences to drive IC perturbations • LBC – 3 hrly : • GENS 1-4 ET members for 2 NMM perturbed pairs • GENS 5-8 ET members for 2 NMM perturbed pairs • GENS Ctl for NMM control • Output Files on pressure and native vertical levels

  19. Met Ensembles for ATDHigh Resolution 12 km mean/spread 10 m Winds 850 mb Winds 10 m wind NMM-Ctl

  20. HREF Upper Air Verification Perry Shafran, EMC SREF-32 km 21 member (solid lines) vs HREF-12 km 9 member (dashed lines) at 24 and 48 forecasthours BIAS and RMSE Temperature Wind Speed

  21. HREF Surface Verification • SREF-32km 21 member (solid lines) vs HREF-12km 9 member (dashed lines) Diurnal Averaged BIAS and RMSE 2 m Temperature 10 m Winds

  22. Dispersion Ensemble Configurations1. One HPAC run (Ens. Median/variance)2. One HPAC run for each member3. One HPAC run for main clusters Mean AQFS Cluster SREF/HREF Cluster analysis can chose a smaller set of members statistically different from one another that correspond to the daily weather pattern.

  23. NCEP’s FVS Verification System • Input observations are from NCEP operational PREPBUFR files which include 1) radiosonde & dropsonde Z, temp, wind & moisture; 2) surface land & marine P, temp, wind, moisture observations; 3) ACARS & conventional aircraft wind, temp [moisture], and 4) Profiler winds. • Verified Fields include temperature, wind and moisture fields on pressure and shelter levels. • Recently added sensible weather (eg: Visibility) , wind shear, and PBL height • Grid verification of cloud cover using AFWA cloud cover products New FVS On-line System Web-based MYSQL Database

  24. NAM-WRF PBL evaluationusing TEXAQS06 profilers Marina Tsidulko, EMC NAM PSD Longview Profiler SHV Raob Use of profilers as ground truth for raob derived Zi

  25. PBL Verification System Model output Observations Eta TKE PBL PBL height RAOB Profiler Mix Layer Ht WRF Ri PBL/no fluxes Aircraft Ri PBL/fluxes GFS PBL calculation Grib Format BUFR format RiCR= 0.25 Forecast Verification System Statistics

  26. NAMY Mean PBL height for July-August 2006 provided by ETA (black), WRF/NMM (green) and estimated with RAOBS data for Western US Mean PBL height for July-August 2006 provided by ETA (black), WRF/NMM (green) and estimated with RAOBS data for Shreveport LA

  27. Nov.2007 Diurnally Averaged Biases Ensemble Verification Extensions Average errors Bias Correction Impact Jun Du, EMC 10m Wind 2 m Temperature

  28. Nov.2007 48 hour 10m Wind speeds Ensemble Verification Extensions Ranked Histograms Bias Correction Impact

  29. Nov.2007 48 hour 2 m Temperatures Ensemble Verification Extensions Ranked Histograms Bias Correction Impact

  30. Nov.2007 48 hour Forecast Temperatures Ensemble Verification Extensions Statistical Consistency Bias Correction Impact • Ratio: • Mean Squared Error / • Variance • best ~ 1 (Buizza, et al. 1999) • SREF-21 improved • WRF subset yields lowest statistical consistency compared to Eta subsets

  31. Future Work • Continue to Evaluate 12 km Relocatable HREF System • Add pbl & LSM diversity to initial condition diversity system • High Resolution Testing • Test the addition of a 4 km nest to HREF NMM & field experiments • Evaluate with DCNET and URBANET data • Provision of Products • Provision of length scales to MDS for SCIPUFF sensitivity testing • Continue enhancement of NMM-MEDOC converter with L3 • Development of a High Resolution Boundary Layer Analysis • Complete evaluation of WRF turbulence & PBL fields (DIPOLE-Pride, TexAQS-2006) for coupling with HPAC w/ PSU • Improved PBL and probabilistic verification package

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