Turbulence Prediction and Warning Systems Programmatic Status

1. Aviation Safety & Security Program Turbulence Prediction and Warning SystemsProgrammatic Status FAA-NASA-Industry Turbulence Certification Workshop May 24-26, 2005 James F. Watson NASA-Langley Research Center

2. TPAWS Airborne Centric Concept Data Link Data Link Flight Management System A/C Controls/Mitigation Schemes Decision Aids Presentation to Pilot Processors Onboard Sensors Airborne Turbulence Information TurbulenceAuto-PIREP Airborne scaling & display of Turbulence Auto-Pirep’s information Forward-Looking Sensors: Radar and LIDAR Ground-basedTurbulenceProducts

3. FY05 TPAWS FAA-Cert Priorities • Certification Methodology and Tools: • Turbulence Data Sets, Tools, and Integrated Simulation Package that will support FAA certification of airborne radar w/turbulence prediction mode • Transition the Simulation Package and applicable information into the FAA 3-yr (FY05-07) Airborne Radar Certification Documents Project • Turbulence Display Concepts: • Joint experiment with AWIN for assessing turbulence cockpit displays • In-Service-Evaluation (ISE) of E-Turb Radar: • Performance reports/analyses/results from DAL 737-800 flights • FY06+ planning/objectives for integrated turbulence avoidance system (info, decision aids, …) needs FAA, industry, airline advocacy and collaboration.

4. 2.5Q-FY05 TPAWS Summary • Research Portfolio/Scope Decisions • -Fulfill the FY04/05 2-year research for In-Service-Evaluations of E-Turb Radar and Turbulence AutoPIREP System technologies. • -Support ATIE using ARC 747 simulator. • Remaining TPAWS $$ were insufficient for a/c-to-a/c TAPS milestone with NASA 757/Learjet; NASA aircraft utilization was eliminated. • -With FAA FY05-07 plan for Turbulence Certification activities, TPAWS opted to provide CS support for transition of “Cert Methods & Tools” for wrap-up/hand-over. • - Remaining $$ were allocated to a limited a/c-to-a/c TAPS ISE with addition of DAL 767 fleet/oceanic routes.

5. 2.5Q-FY05 TPAWS Summary • Schedule • TPAWS/AvSSP is scheduled for completion 30-Sep-05 • Budget • Full allotment in late-Feb05 due to CR • 99.8 % of TPAWS FY05 “procurement” budget has been allocated • Future (FY06+) • AvSSP-phase-2 planning has been “zeroed”; FY07 competition.

6. 2.5Q-FY05 TPAWS Summary • FY06+ Activities: • Mar 04 AvSSP-Phase2 Industry Workshop “results suspended for FY06 start” • FY06 is designated a “transition” year • FY07 will be start of “competitions” for AvSSP research activities • FY06 NASA Aero appropriation is getting Congressional interest • New NASA-Adm. is focused on President’s space exploration priorities • Place-holders/Meetings • LaRC ARD Presentation (NASA, ATR); 23-Mar-05 • NASA-HQ ARMD Presentation (NASA, ATR, DAL); 6-Apr-05 • FAA-HQ AvSafety Presentation (NASA); 7-Apr-05 • JPDO Wx-IPT Aircraft Mitigation Presentation (NASA,FAA..); 19-May-05 • All the above have a consistent transfer to industry and long term integration theme

7. 2.5Q-FY05 TPAWS Summary • TPAWS will end on 30-Sep-05. • Smooth, responsive accomplishments of objectives is Lvl-3 priority • Very limited time remaining and all $$ have been “spent” • Co-ordination is paramount to a smooth close-out. • NASA/TPAWS is not requiring any “undoing/dismantling” of activities. • FY06+ • ? Transistion to ? • Aero Centers under pressure due to CS numbers and facilities utilization • NASA FY07 competition model is not well understood, across and within Centers. • Relevant, meaningful follow-on activities <Place-holders/Conceptual Info>will be a NASA/FAA (others?) collaboration, including cost sharing. • Many THANKS for efforts, influence, and participation to date; still needs to be sustained.

8. Web Sites • http://tpaws.larc.nasa.gov • Prime location of significant TPAWS info • -Certification Workshops #1-8 items • LaRC-757 turbulence flight data/results • Distribution of turbulence data sets and certification tools / products • http://wxap.grc.nasa.gov • Prime location of significant WxAP info • -TPAWS presentations from WxAP “Annual Reviews/Meetings”

9. Meeting Technical Objectives / Perspectives • TPAWS Agenda / Day 2 • TAPS Overview • ATIE Turbulence Display Experiment • E-Turb Radar ISE (partial focus for Cert collaboration) • Certification Methods & Tools (6-box Chart) • Session Wrap-up / Actions

10. Certification Methodology wind field reflectivity I & Q • 1) Turbulence Events/Scenarios • Enough events? • Domain size/number of scatterers • Roles of von Karman and cloud models • V&V of cloud model • Model reflectivity vs radar reflectivity • Time evolution? • 2) Radar Simulation • Phase modulation? • ADWRS / other v&v • Radar scenarios (see description of “Radar Truth field” output) • 3) Radar Algorithm* • NASA standard algorithm • Moment estimate field on radar grid. • Load estimate field on radar grid. *Vendor equipment/ products will replace this block Estimated loads on radar grid • 4) Aircraft Specific Test Criteria • Weight • Type • Speed wind altitude • 5) Aircraft “Truth” Fields • Domain size (1, 2, 3-D) • Technique for producing truth • Aircraft type/configuration; generic vs. actual* • errors due to parameter uncertainty (e.g., weight) • *NASA task 2 as defined at OKC meeting 05/01 • 6) Comparative Analysis & Statistics • Flight deck issues • Polar to Cartesian conversion • Hit/miss scoring rules Estimated loads on Wx model grid 25-Sept-01