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The Evolution of Deterrence

The Evolution of Deterrence. The Eisenhower Years. Eisenhower elected in 1952. Concerned about the large increases in defense spending in the last years of the Truman administration. But also worried about Communist expansionism. The “New Look”. Limit defense spending. To contain Communism:

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The Evolution of Deterrence

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  1. The Evolution of Deterrence The Eisenhower Years

  2. Eisenhower elected in 1952 • Concerned about the large increases in defense spending in the last years of the Truman administration. • But also worried about Communist expansionism.

  3. The “New Look” • Limit defense spending. • To contain Communism: • Rely upon U.S. nuclear arsenal. • For proxy wars involving allies, assist with air and sea forces. • Expressed in NSC-162/2 (October 1953)

  4. Secretary of State:John Foster Dulles • In January 1954, gives a speech stating administration’s decision: • “to depend primarily upon a great capacity to retaliate, instantly, by means and at places of our choosing.” • Sparks creation of the term “Massive Retaliation.”

  5. Means of “retaliation” • Initially, Strategic Air Command • B-52 Stratofortress enters service, 1955

  6. The Missile Age • Sputnik launched October 4, 1957 • U.S. military branches had already been pursuing strategic missile programs.

  7. U.S. Strategic Missile Programs • Atlas (ICBM, USAF) • Titan (ICBM, USAF) • Thor (IRBM, USAF) • Snark (cruise missile, USAF) • Jupiter (IRBM, Army) • Polaris (IRBM/FBM, USN)

  8. Nuclear submarines • First: U.S.S. Nautilus (1955) • First ballistic missile submarine: U.S.S. George Washington (1960)

  9. Criticisms of the New Look and Nuclear Deterrence • For a crisis elsewhere in the world, how credible was an American threat of heavy retaliation when the U.S.S.R. had the capacity to inflict massive damage on the U.S. itself? • What if the Soviet Union launched a pre-emptive strike at the U.S. strategic nuclear arsenal?

  10. Problems assessing Soviet capabilities • By mid-1950’s Soviet internal security blocks sources of human intelligence. • Other attempts to obtain intelligence: • National Security Agency (NSA) formed in 1952 to listen to radio traffic. • CIA – wiretapping phones • Radar stations established around periphery of U.S.S.R. • U-2 overflights

  11. Lack of knowledge enhances fear of U.S. vulnerability • “bomber gap” debate: 1954-56 • Sputnik launch, 1957 • “missile gap” issue at end of Eisenhower administration

  12. Civilians shape deterrence policy • Gaither Committee (report: November 1957) • RAND Corporation • Prominent theorists: • Bernard Brodie • Herman Kahn • William Kaufman • Henry Kissinger • Thomas Schelling • Albert Wohlstetter

  13. The Problem of Pre-emption • If a pre-emptive strike could destroy a nation’s nuclear arsenal, that arsenal may not deter war, but could actually encourage an attack. • Could create an unstable political environment where a crisis could encourage such a strike.

  14. Nuclear Deterrence:A short lexicon • First strike (one that attempts destroy enemy’s weapons) • Second strike (one that can survive a first strike and retaliate) • Counterforce (strike on military targets) • Countervalue (strike on civilian targets)

  15. Other aspects of Eisenhower administration security policy • Alliances • Arms talks • Economic and military aid, and covert actions, to defeat communist insurgencies.

  16. NATO & the Federal Republic of Germany (West Germany) • First formed in 1949. • “Fully sovereign” in 1955. • Acquired full control over its domestic and foreign policy. • Formed the Bundeswehr, would grow to 12 divisions (500,00 men) and become integrated into NATO. • Would only arm with nuclear weapons if order to by NATO.

  17. NATO & Nuclear Weapons • 1954: Adopts “New Look” approach of relying more on nuclear arms in place of larger conventional forces. • Initial assumption that tactical nuclear devices could be used to defend against a Soviet invasion. • Thousands of such weapons deployed to Europe in 1950’s

  18. Nukes & European expectations • U.S. emphasis on nuclear arsenal to deter war with U.S.S.R. made nuclear weapons a symbol of American commitment to defend Europe. • Implications?

  19. Asia • U.S. signs bilateral pacts with South Korea (1953) and Taiwan (1955). • Gets Japan to maintain a minimal defense force – but it won’t accept nuclear arms. • Southeast Asia Treaty Organization (SEATO) formed, 1954: • Initial members: U.S., U.K., France, Philippines, New Zealand, Australia, Pakistan, Thailand. • Laos, Cambodia, and South Vietnam added shortly thereafter.

  20. The problems with allies • Small-scale conflict between Nationalist and Communist Chinese, 1953-54 and 1958. • Ongoing border incidents along Korean DMZ.

  21. Indochina • French suffer large defeat at Dien Bien Phu, 1954.

  22. U.S. gets France to negotiate with Viet Minh • Vietnam divided at 17th parallel

  23. The Middle East • The Baghdad Pact, 1955 • U.S. pressures U.K., Iran , Iraq, Pakistan & Turkey to form alliance. • Effort to deter Soviet pressure in the oil-rich region, which was unstable given the waning of British influence. • Later, U.S. joins alliance; becomes known as the Central Treaty Organization (CENTO) in 1959.

  24. More problems with allies • The Suez Crisis (1956-57) • President Gamal Abdel Nasser orders nationalization of Suez Canal. • Israel, Great Britain & France invade, occupy Canal Zone and Sinai. • U.S. pressures and occupying countries to withdraw.

  25. The Eisenhower Doctrine, 1957 • President pledges U.S. assistance to any Middle Eastern country threatened by aggression from any state “controlled by international communism.” • Does not prevent continuing problems in region, 1957-58: • Iraq: coup deposed monarchy, new regime leaves Pact. • Jordan: monarchy threatened • Lebanon: sank into civil war.

  26. Latin America • Cuba: Batista regime collapses in 1959, Fidel Castro comes to power. • Communist movements active in Columbia and Venezuela.

  27. How effective was theNew Look?

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