The Evolution of Deterrence

1. The Evolution of Deterrence The Eisenhower Years

2. Eisenhower elected in 1952 • Concerned about the large increases in defense spending in the last years of the Truman administration. • But also worried about Communist expansionism.

3. The “New Look” • Limit defense spending. • To contain Communism: • Rely upon U.S. nuclear arsenal. • For proxy wars involving allies, assist with air and sea forces. • Expressed in NSC-162/2 (October 1953)

4. Secretary of State:John Foster Dulles • In January 1954, gives a speech stating administration’s decision: • “to depend primarily upon a great capacity to retaliate, instantly, by means and at places of our choosing.” • Sparks creation of the term “Massive Retaliation.”

5. Means of “retaliation” • Initially, Strategic Air Command • B-52 Stratofortress enters service, 1955

6. The Missile Age • Sputnik launched October 4, 1957 • U.S. military branches had already been pursuing strategic missile programs.

7. U.S. Strategic Missile Programs • Atlas (ICBM, USAF) • Titan (ICBM, USAF) • Thor (IRBM, USAF) • Snark (cruise missile, USAF) • Jupiter (IRBM, Army) • Polaris (IRBM/FBM, USN)

8. Nuclear submarines • First: U.S.S. Nautilus (1955) • First ballistic missile submarine: U.S.S. George Washington (1960)

9. Criticisms of the New Look and Nuclear Deterrence • For a crisis elsewhere in the world, how credible was an American threat of heavy retaliation when the U.S.S.R. had the capacity to inflict massive damage on the U.S. itself? • What if the Soviet Union launched a pre-emptive strike at the U.S. strategic nuclear arsenal?

10. Problems assessing Soviet capabilities • By mid-1950’s Soviet internal security blocks sources of human intelligence. • Other attempts to obtain intelligence: • National Security Agency (NSA) formed in 1952 to listen to radio traffic. • CIA – wiretapping phones • Radar stations established around periphery of U.S.S.R. • U-2 overflights

11. Lack of knowledge enhances fear of U.S. vulnerability • “bomber gap” debate: 1954-56 • Sputnik launch, 1957 • “missile gap” issue at end of Eisenhower administration

12. Civilians shape deterrence policy • Gaither Committee (report: November 1957) • RAND Corporation • Prominent theorists: • Bernard Brodie • Herman Kahn • William Kaufman • Henry Kissinger • Thomas Schelling • Albert Wohlstetter

13. The Problem of Pre-emption • If a pre-emptive strike could destroy a nation’s nuclear arsenal, that arsenal may not deter war, but could actually encourage an attack. • Could create an unstable political environment where a crisis could encourage such a strike.

14. Nuclear Deterrence:A short lexicon • First strike (one that attempts destroy enemy’s weapons) • Second strike (one that can survive a first strike and retaliate) • Counterforce (strike on military targets) • Countervalue (strike on civilian targets)

15. Other aspects of Eisenhower administration security policy • Alliances • Arms talks • Economic and military aid, and covert actions, to defeat communist insurgencies.

16. NATO & the Federal Republic of Germany (West Germany) • First formed in 1949. • “Fully sovereign” in 1955. • Acquired full control over its domestic and foreign policy. • Formed the Bundeswehr, would grow to 12 divisions (500,00 men) and become integrated into NATO. • Would only arm with nuclear weapons if order to by NATO.

17. NATO & Nuclear Weapons • 1954: Adopts “New Look” approach of relying more on nuclear arms in place of larger conventional forces. • Initial assumption that tactical nuclear devices could be used to defend against a Soviet invasion. • Thousands of such weapons deployed to Europe in 1950’s

18. Nukes & European expectations • U.S. emphasis on nuclear arsenal to deter war with U.S.S.R. made nuclear weapons a symbol of American commitment to defend Europe. • Implications?

19. Asia • U.S. signs bilateral pacts with South Korea (1953) and Taiwan (1955). • Gets Japan to maintain a minimal defense force – but it won’t accept nuclear arms. • Southeast Asia Treaty Organization (SEATO) formed, 1954: • Initial members: U.S., U.K., France, Philippines, New Zealand, Australia, Pakistan, Thailand. • Laos, Cambodia, and South Vietnam added shortly thereafter.

20. The problems with allies • Small-scale conflict between Nationalist and Communist Chinese, 1953-54 and 1958. • Ongoing border incidents along Korean DMZ.

21. Indochina • French suffer large defeat at Dien Bien Phu, 1954.

22. U.S. gets France to negotiate with Viet Minh • Vietnam divided at 17th parallel

23. The Middle East • The Baghdad Pact, 1955 • U.S. pressures U.K., Iran , Iraq, Pakistan & Turkey to form alliance. • Effort to deter Soviet pressure in the oil-rich region, which was unstable given the waning of British influence. • Later, U.S. joins alliance; becomes known as the Central Treaty Organization (CENTO) in 1959.

24. More problems with allies • The Suez Crisis (1956-57) • President Gamal Abdel Nasser orders nationalization of Suez Canal. • Israel, Great Britain & France invade, occupy Canal Zone and Sinai. • U.S. pressures and occupying countries to withdraw.

25. The Eisenhower Doctrine, 1957 • President pledges U.S. assistance to any Middle Eastern country threatened by aggression from any state “controlled by international communism.” • Does not prevent continuing problems in region, 1957-58: • Iraq: coup deposed monarchy, new regime leaves Pact. • Jordan: monarchy threatened • Lebanon: sank into civil war.

26. Latin America • Cuba: Batista regime collapses in 1959, Fidel Castro comes to power. • Communist movements active in Columbia and Venezuela.

27. How effective was theNew Look?