1 / 28

Ag Outlook

This report provides an overview of the U.S. agricultural outlook for 2016, focusing on corn, soybeans, meat production, and prices. It includes current trends, yield estimates, export sales, and the impact of factors such as the strength of the U.S. dollar and crude oil prices. Key highlights include crop and feedstuffs situations, livestock sector profitability, hog industry expansion, cattle-beef supplies, poultry rebuild/expansion, domestic dairy herd stability, and U.S. consumer demand. Data on cattle crush margins, beef and pork exports, and upcoming pork packing plants are also included.

aguila
Download Presentation

Ag Outlook

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Ag Outlook Eagle Grove, Iowa Mar. 4, 2016 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911

  2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use Source: USDA-WAOB

  3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use Source: USDA-WAOB

  4. Corn Yield Estimate Top: 2015 Estimated Yields Bottom: Change from last year Units: Bushels/acre Source: USDA-NASS

  5. U.S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB

  6. Corn Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

  7. Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

  8. Strength of the U.S. Dollar Source: Federal Reserve

  9. Crude Oil Prices Sources: EIA and CME

  10. Corn Grind for Ethanol

  11. Current Corn Futures 3.65 3.53 3.50 Source: CME Group, 2/29/2016

  12. Current Soybean Futures 8.59 8.33 8.30 Source: CME Group, 2/29/2016

  13. 2016/17 Crop Margins

  14. Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs

  15. Key livestock market highlights • Crop & feedstuffs situation – ADVANTAGEOUS for livestock sector • Size of hog industry driven by recent profitability – Productivity to guide 2nd half 2016 supply prospects • Still relatively tight cattle-beef supplies but expansion well underway – 2015 was a year of transition • HPAI in poultry in 2015-16 – Rebuild/expansion underway • Relatively stable domestic dairy herd expected through 2017 – Worldwide production up, prices lower • U.S. consumer demand has been GOOD – International trade a bit of a drag but should improve

  16. U.S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB

  17. Cattle Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the feeder steer and corn costs. Live weight: 1250 pounds Feeder weight: 750 pounds Corn: 50 bushels per head Source: ISU Extension

  18. Data Source: USDA & LMIC, Compiled by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center

  19. Data Source: USDA/NASS

  20. Data Source: USDA/NASS

  21. U.S. Beef Exports, Jan-Nov 2015 (Volume excluding by-products & variety meats) WASDE U.S.: 2014: 2,573 mil lbs 2015: 2,263 (-12%) 2016: 2,475 (+9%) Source: USDA/ERS

  22. Hog Crush Margin The Crush Margin is the return after the pig, corn and soybean meal costs. Carcass weight: 200 pounds Pig price: 50% of 5 mth out lean hog futures Corn: 10 bushels per pig Soybean meal: 150 pounds per pig Source: ISU Extension

  23. Data Source: CME Group

  24. New Pork Packing Plants (2017) Sioux City, IA ― Seaboard/Triumph Coldwater, MI ― Clements Foods Data Source: USDA/AMS. * Steve Meyer, Vice President, Pork Analysis, Express Markets Inc. Analytics.

  25. U.S. Pork Exports, Jan-Nov 2015 (Volume excluding by-products & variety meats) WASDE U.S.: 2014: 4,857 mil lbs 2015: 4,946 (+2% vs 2014) 2016: 5,125 (+4% vs 2015) Source: USDA/ERS

  26. Thank you for your time!Any questions?My web site:http://www2.econ.iastate.edu/faculty/hart/Iowa Farm Outlook:http://www2.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/Ag Decision Maker:http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/

More Related