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Ag Outlook

Ag Outlook. Nov. 2, 2017 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911. U.S. Corn Supply and Use. Source: USDA-WAOB. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use. Source: USDA-WAOB. Projected Corn Yields. Top: 2017 Yield Estimate Bottom: Change from last month

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Ag Outlook

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  1. Ag Outlook Nov. 2, 2017 Chad Hart Associate Professor/Crop Marketing Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911

  2. U.S. Corn Supply and Use Source: USDA-WAOB

  3. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use Source: USDA-WAOB

  4. Projected Corn Yields Top: 2017 Yield Estimate Bottom: Change from last month Units: Bushels/acre Source: USDA-NASS

  5. Projected Soybean Yields Top: 2017 Yield Estimate Bottom: Change from last month Units: Bushels/acre Source: USDA-NASS

  6. World Corn Production Source: USDA-WAOB

  7. World Soybean Production Source: USDA-WAOB

  8. U.S. Meat Production & Prices Source: USDA-WAOB

  9. U.S. Meat Trade Million pounds Source: USDA-WAOB

  10. Key factors for 2017 and beyond • Crops/Feedstuffs – BULLISH for livestock sector. • Supply – Growing and competing animal protein supplies. • Domestic Demand – Increasingly competitive environment, battle for market share. • Trade – Stabilizing factor. Strong exports and declining imports. • Producers resiliently charging ahead.

  11. +8.1% (‘15 vs ‘14) +2.4% (‘16 vs ‘15) +3.2% (’17YTD vs ’16YTD) Source: USDA/AMS. * Steve Meyer, EMI.

  12. Source: Steve Meyer. Published in National Hog Farmer Magazine, July 27, 2017.

  13. Pork Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

  14. LMIC Pork Production Quarterly Forecasts (10/2/17) Sources: USDA/NASS; USDA/AMS Livestock Market News; Projections and Forecasts by LMIC

  15. Year-over-Year Prices: Lean Hogs

  16. Data Source: USDA-NASS; Forecasts by LMIC

  17. Data Source: USDA-NASS, Forecasts by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center

  18. Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled and Forecasts by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center

  19. Beef Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

  20. Data Source: USDA & LMIC, Compiled by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center

  21. Year-over-Year Prices: Live Cattle

  22. Corn Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

  23. Corn Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

  24. Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA-FAS

  25. Soybean Export Shifts Source: USDA-FAS

  26. Ethanol Production Sources: EIA, my projection for 2017

  27. Ethanol Exports Source: EIA

  28. Current Corn Futures 3.94 3.55 Source: CME Group, 11/1/2017

  29. Current Soybean Futures 9.88 9.75 Source: CME Group, 11/1/2017

  30. 2017/18 Crop Margins

  31. 2017/18 Margins @ Actual Yields

  32. Margins @ Actual Yields and Basis

  33. 2018/19 Margins w/ 2017 Costs

  34. Thank you for your time!Any questions?My web site:http://www2.econ.iastate.edu/faculty/hart/Iowa Farm Outlook:http://www2.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/Ag Decision Maker:http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/

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