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Iowa’s Climate 2030

Iowa’s Climate 2030. Eugene S. Takle Director, Climate Science Program Professor of Atmospheric Science Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences Professor of Agricultural Meteorology Department of Agronomy Iowa State University Ames, Iowa 50011 gstakle@iastate.edu.

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Iowa’s Climate 2030

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  1. Iowa’s Climate 2030 Eugene S. Takle Director, Climate Science Program Professor of Atmospheric Science Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences Professor of Agricultural Meteorology Department of Agronomy Iowa State University Ames, Iowa 50011 gstakle@iastate.edu Municipal Utilities 2030 Ankeny, Iowa  8 April 2010

  2. “I hear so many conflicting views on climate change, I don’t know what or who to believe” Soybean producer from NE Iowa

  3. In science, the prevailing theory is the one that explains the balance of evidence What is the evidence?

  4. Global Mean Surface Temperature http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2008/ann/global-jan-dec-error-bar-pg.gif

  5. Global Mean Surface Temperature http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2008/ann/global-jan-dec-error-bar-pg.gif

  6. Global Mean Surface Temperature http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2008/ann/global-jan-dec-error-bar-pg.gif

  7. NASA http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/

  8. Source: IPCC, 2001: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis

  9. Source: IPCC, 2001: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis

  10. Temperature Trends in Upper and Lower Atmosphere Upper Atmosphere (Stratosphere) Lower Atmosphere (Troposphere)

  11. “One of the clearest trends in the United States observational record is an increasing frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation events… Over the last century there was a 50% increase in the frequency of days with precipitation over 101.6 mm (four inches) in the upper midwestern U.S.; this trend is statistically significant “ Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp.

  12. Arctic Sea-Ice Decline

  13. Decline in Greenland Ice Mass Equivalent to about 5 ft of ice over the state of Iowa each year

  14. Tropical Atlantic Ocean Hurricane Power Dissipation Index (PDI) Sea-surface temperature V V V Emanual, Kerry, 2005: Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years. Nature, 436, 686-688.

  15. Ocean Heat Content 1oC rise in top 3 m of global ocean is equivalent to a 1oC rise in entire atmosphere

  16. Where is this extra heat coming from? • Possible mechanisms: • More solar radiation • Less reflection from clouds • Less reflection from Earth’s surface • More energy trapped and recycled by ozone and greenhouse gases

  17. Earth’s Energy Balance: Incoming solar = outgoing infrared radiation But rapid changes in atmosphere and ocean temperatures and loss of land and sea ice indicate an imbalance

  18. ? Earth’s Energy Balance: Incoming solar = outgoing infrared radiation But rapid changes in atmosphere and ocean temperatures and loss of land and sea ice indicate an imbalance ? ? ?

  19. 0.1% *Other solar cycles have periods of 22,000, 41,000, and 100,000 years with 0.1% variation.

  20. Forcing Factors in the Global Climate More trapped (recycled) heat See Arritt for details this afternoon More cloud & land reflection Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp.

  21. Increasing greenhouse gases increases heating of the Earth Increased Greenhouse Gases => Global Heating

  22. Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009.

  23. Global Carbon Emissions (Gt) Actual emissions are exceeding worst case scenarios projected in 1990

  24. Warming of the Lower and Upper Atmosphere Produced by Natural and Human Causes Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp.

  25. Warming of the Lower and Upper Atmosphere Produced by Natural and Human Causes Note that greenhouse gases have a unique temperature signature, with strong warming in the upper troposphere, cooling in the lower stratosphere and strong warming over the North Pole. No other warming factors have this signature. Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp.

  26. Global Mean Surface Temperature http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2008/ann/global-jan-dec-error-bar-pg.gif

  27. Attribution studies: See Anderson this afternoon for applications to the Midwest

  28. Source: Jerry Meehl, National Center for Atmospheric Research

  29. The balance of evidence for the magnitude and distribution of warming is explained by increases in atmospheric greenhouse gases

  30. The “Cone of Uncertainty”

  31. Energy intensive Balanced fuel sources More environmentally friendly If current emission trends continue, global temperature rise will exceed worst case scenarios projected in 2007 Consider A1B FI =fossil intensive IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers

  32. IPCC 2007

  33. December-January-February Temperature Change 7.2oF 6.3oF A1B Emission Scenario 2080-2099 minus1980-1999

  34. IPCC 2007

  35. June-July-August Temperature Change 4.5oF A1B Emission Scenario 2080-2099 minus1980-1999 5.4oF

  36. June-July-August Temperature Change 4.5oF A1B Emission Scenario 2080-2099 minus1980-1999 5.4oF Not the direction of current trends

  37. IPCC 2007

  38. Low confidence in model projection of summer precipitation IPCC 2007

  39. IPCC 2007

  40. Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp.

  41. Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp.

  42. Low confidence Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp.

  43. Trend of increase in occurrence of heavy precipitation over the 20th C is consistent with increasing GHG concentrations. Frequency of intense precipitation events is likely to increase in the future. Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp.

  44. The planet is committed to a warming over the next 50 years regardless of political decisions Adaptation Necessary Adaptation Necessary Mitigation Possible Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp.

  45. The planet is committed to a warming over the next 50 years regardless of political decisions Adaptation Necessary Adaptation Necessary Mitigation Possible Karl, T. R., J. M. Melillo, and T. C. Peterson, (eds.), 2009: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States. Cambridge University Press, 2009, 196pp.

  46. Observed Summer (JJA) Daily Maximum Temperature Changes (K), 1976-2000 Adapted from Folland et al. [2001]

  47. Des Moines Airport Data 1983: 13 1988: 10 2009: 0

  48. Des Moines Airport Data 1983: 13 1988: 10 6 days ≥ 100oF in the last 20 years 2009: 0

  49. State-Wide Average Data

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