Post-2012 Issues under the UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol ______________

1. Post-2012 Issues under the UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol______________ LDC Workshop Nairobi, Kenya Windsor Golf and Country Club 2-3 November 2006 M.J. Mace FIELD London

2. Presentation Outline • Framework Challenges • Mitigation Challenge • Political Challenges • Process for Negotiation (AWG, Dialogue, Article 9)

3. Post-2012 Framework Challenges • Convention - aims to bring developed country GHG emissions back to 1990 levels toward stabilisation of concentrations • Kyoto - aims to reduce overall developed country emissions by about 5% below 1990 levels over ‘first commitment period’ 2008-2012 • Kyoto anticipates ‘subsequent’ commitment periods, but does not specify duration or goal

4. Issues to be resolved • What concentration level avoids dangerous climate change? (400?, 450? 500 ppm?) • What overarching percent reduction in GHG emissions? • Over what timeframe? • How long should the second commitment period be? • What types of commitments? • How to apply the principle of ‘common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities’ to developing countries? • How to address adaptation?

5. What is the role of the flexible mechanisms and sinks in the 2nd CP? • Should there be changes to the sectors and sources of emissions covered (e.g. international bunker fuels?) • What role should non-Kyoto Parties play? (e.g., US, Australia) • How can the Post-2012 climate regime draw in broader commitments from more countries? (e.g., China, India, Brazil) • Should groups of developing countries be differentiated in a future framework? How?

6. Mitigation Challenges • Clearly major reductions are needed • IPCC 1995: stabilisation of CO2 requires an immediate reduction of 50-70% and further reductions thereafter; • IPCC 2001: GHGs need to be reduced to ‘a very small fraction of current emissions’ • Impacts of climate change already being seen. • Yet emissions continue to trend upwards

7. Projected development of GHG emissions around the world Source: Presentation by Vildis Bisters, Ministry of Environment, Latvia, April 25, 2006, at workshop on ‘Scenarios and options for second commitment period, Baltic Perspective’

8. Political challenges • Some developed countryConvention Parties with major emissions have decided not to ratify Kyoto Protocol – and thus are not working within a target (US, Australia) • Some developing countries that have ratified Kyoto do not have targets but have rapidly increasing emissions (e.g., China).

9. Developed countries with Kyoto targets • represented only 30% of total emissions in 2000. • European Union • represented only 14% of emissions in 2000. • Developing country emissions are increasing substantially • up 55% from 1990 – 2003 • Vulnerable countries need to see global emission trends decrease in the short term to avoid dangerous climate change.

10. How to address this dynamic? • Article 3.9 of the Kyoto Protocol required Parties with targets to begin discussion of the second commitment period no later than 7 years before the end of the first commitment period (2005). • With some countries not active in Kyoto, another processhad to be found for engaging these countries.

11. Two negotiating processes established to discussing future commitments • Ad Hoc Open-ended Working Group (AWG) • Open to all Parties • Considers future commitments for Annex I Parties • Dialogue on long-term cooperative action to address climate change by enhancing implementation of the Convention • Open to all Parties • Considers cooperative action to promote existing agreement under UNFCCC

12. 1. Ad Hoc Working Group on Article 3.9 • Tasked to consider further commitments for Annex I Parties beyond 2012 - under the KP • Aims to complete work as early as possible, to ensure no gap between first and second commitment periods • Met in May and considered a process for its future work

13. AWG results to date: Chair has produced an indicative list of topics relevant to the AWG’s work • Scientific basis for determining level of ambition for further Annex I commitments • Scenarios for stabilising GHG concentrations (to guide KP’s role in contributing to ultimate objective of UNFCCC) • Adverse impacts; costs of impacts and adaptation • Other relevant scientific, technical and socio-economic information • Emissions trends, mitigation potential of Annex I Parties • Costs of impacts and adaptation • Socio-economic drivers, PAMs • Sectoral analyses and impacts on competitiveness

14. 3. Experience gained in implementing the KP • methodologies, LULUCF, PAMS, flex mechs, demonstrable progress 4. Architecture of further commitments for Annex I Parties • Length of commitment period • review of sectors and sources of emissions • differentiation and burden sharing • feasibility of measures to complement targets, e.g., sectoral approaches • contribution of flexible mechanisms • incentives for development, deployment of technology 5. Legal matters • Scope of amendments to Annex B, elements of KP to be amended or supplemented to give effect to Annex B amendments • Entry into force of amendments to Annex B, avoidance of gap.

15. AWG Future work • Meets in November 2006 • Will hold an in session workshop to allow presentation and exchange of relevant information - which could include: • Scientific basis for determining future commitments • Scenarios for stabilisation of atmospheric concentrations • Emission trends for Annex I Parties • Mitigation potential of policies an technologies in different national circumstances • Costs and benefits of emission reductions. • IPCC will present at this event. See FCCC/KP/AWG/2006/L.2/Rev.1, (May 25, 2006)

16. 2. Dialogue on long-term cooperative action to enhance implementation of the Convention • 4 workshops, first held May 15-16, 2006 • Open-non-binding exchange of views • To exchange experiences, discuss strategic approaches for long-term cooperative action on: (1) advancing development goals in a sustainable way; (2) addressing action on adaptation; (3) realising the full potential of technology; (4) realising the full potential of market-based opportunities. • Informed by best available scientific information.

17. Dialogue is designed to: • identify actions to promote research, development and deployment of cleaner technologies; • identify ways to support voluntary actions by developing countries • Identify ways to promote access by developing countries to climate-friendly technologies and technologies for adaptation.

18. Dialogue results to date: • First workshop took the form of an initial exchange of views, followed by discussion of the four thematic areas • Far ranging discussions, constructive atmosphere, but recognised need for future sessions to have more focus • Co-facilitators’ report in August presents proposals on how to organise the next Dialogue in Nairobi – two issues only: (1) advancing development goals in a sustainable way; (2) realising the full potential of market-based opportunities • Dialogue reports will serve as an input to discussions at COP-12 and COP-13.

19. 3. Article 9 Review of the KP • Parties are to periodically review the Kyoto Protocol in light of best available scientific information on climate change and its impacts and take appropriate action • First review to take place at COP/MOP 2 • Political and substantive linkages with discussions under AWG and Dialogue • Could result in fundamental changes • Nature and duration of review is contentious

20. www.field.org.uk mj.mace@field.org.uk Tel: +44 20 7388-2117 Fax: +44 20 7388-2826 3 Endsleigh Street London WC1H 0DD United Kingdom