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Urban Energy Systems Findings from the Global Energy Assessment

Urban Energy Systems Findings from the Global Energy Assessment. Note: All material presented here is from GEA Chapter 18, available at www.globalenergyassment.org suggested citation:

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Urban Energy Systems Findings from the Global Energy Assessment

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  1. Urban Energy SystemsFindings from the Global Energy Assessment Note: All material presented here is from GEA Chapter 18, available at www.globalenergyassment.orgsuggested citation: Grubler, A., X. Bai, T. Buettner, S. Dhakal, D. J. Fisk, T. Ichinose, J. E. Keirstead,G. Sammer, D. Satterthwaite, N. B. Schulz, N. Shah, J. Steinberger and H. Weisz, 2012:Chapter 18 - Urban Energy Systems. In Global Energy Assessment - Toward a Sustainable Future, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, and IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria, pp. 1307-1400.

  2. Main Messages The world is already today predominantly urban (~3/4 of final energy) Rural populations are likely to peak at 3.5 billion and decline after 2020(all long-term energy growth will be urban) City dwellers have often lower direct energy and carbon footprints Important deficits in urban energy and carbon accounting(embodied energy, import/export balance) jeopardize effective policies Cities have specific sustainability challenges & opportunities (high density enables demand/supply management but calls for low waste/~zero-impact systems) Vast improvement potentials (>x2), but most require management ofurban form and systemic change (recycling, cascading, energy- transport, land-use-transport systems integration,..) Governance Paradox: - largest leverage from systemic change, - but requires overcoming policy fragmentation and dispersed, uncoordinated decision taking 3

  3. Population by Settlement Type/Size Number ofagglomerationsin 2005 growthdominatedby small &medium sizedcities!

  4. Main Messages The world is already today predominantly urban (~3/4 of final energy) Rural populations are likely to peak at 3.5 billion and decline after 2020(all long-term energy growth will be urban) City dwellers have often lower direct energy and carbon footprints Important deficits in urban energy and carbon accounting(embodied energy, import/export balance) jeopardize effective policies Cities have specific sustainability challenges & opportunities (high density enables demand/supply management but calls for low waste/~zero-impact systems) Vast improvement potentials (>x2), but most require management ofurban form and systemic change (recycling, cascading, energy- transport, land-use-transport systems integration,..) Governance Paradox: - largest leverage from systemic change, - but requires overcoming policy fragmentation and dispersed, uncoordinated decision taking 7

  5. Annex-I: Per Capita Urban Direct Final Energy Use(red= above national average, blue = below national average) n=132

  6. Non-Annex-I: Per Capita Urban Direct Final Energy Use(red= above national average, blue = below national average) n=68

  7. Direct and Embodied Urban Energy Use in Asian Cities

  8. Urban Energy & GHG Accounting Conundrums • Tradeoffs between comprehensiveness, policy relevance,& data availability; Key: systems boundaries • Production accounting-- clear methodology (IPCC/OECD)-- data availability (>200 cities)-- policy/benchmark relevant (industry, buildings, transport) • Consumption accounting-- comprehensiveness (with full accounting)-- intricate methodological issues (no agreed standard, local prices vs national, vs multi-regional I-O)-- data nightmare (estimates for only few megacities)

  9. Main Messages The world is already today predominantly urban (~3/4 of final energy) Rural populations are likely to peak at 3.5 billion and decline after 2020(all long-term energy growth will be urban) City dwellers have often lower direct energy and carbon footprints Important deficits in urban energy and carbon accounting(embodied energy, import/export balance) jeopardize effective policies Cities have specific sustainability challenges & opportunities (high density enables demand/supply management but calls for low waste/~zero-impact systems) Vast improvement potentials (>x2), but most require management ofurban form and systemic change (recycling, cascading, energy- transport, land-use-transport systems integration,..) Governance Paradox: - largest leverage from systemic change, - but requires overcoming policy fragmentation and dispersed, uncoordinated decision taking 13

  10. China - Air Pollution (SO2) Exposure

  11. Europe – Energy Demand Densitiesblue = renewable supply density threshold <0.5-1 W/m2WEU >79% EEU >66% of energy demand

  12. Main Messages The world is already today predominantly urban (~3/4 of final energy) Rural populations are likely to peak at 3.5 billion and decline after 2020(all long-term energy growth will be urban) City dwellers have often lower direct energy and carbon footprints Important deficits in urban energy and carbon accounting(embodied energy, import/export balance) jeopardize effective policies Cities have specific sustainability challenges & opportunities (high density enables demand/supply management but calls for low waste/~zero-impact systems) Vast improvement potentials (>x2), but most require management ofurban form and systemic change (recycling, cascading, energy- transport, land-use-transport systems integration,..) Governance Paradox: - largest leverage from systemic change, - but requires overcoming policy fragmentation and dispersed, uncoordinated decision taking 20

  13. SynCity Simulations of Urban Policy Leverages

  14. Main Messages The world is already today predominantly urban (~3/4 of final energy) Rural populations are likely to peak at 3.5 billion and decline after 2020(all long-term energy growth will be urban) City dwellers have often lower direct energy and carbon footprints Important deficits in urban energy and carbon accounting(embodied energy, import/export balance) jeopardize effective policies Cities have specific sustainability challenges & opportunities (high density enables demand/supply management but calls for low waste/~zero-impact systems) Vast improvement potentials (>x2), but most require management ofurban form and systemic change (recycling, cascading, energy- transport, land-use-transport systems integration,..) Governance Paradox: - largest leverage from systemic change, - but requires overcoming policy fragmentation and dispersed, uncoordinated decision taking

  15. GEA KM18 Authors & Resources Lead Authors:XuemeiBai, Thomas Buettner, ShobhakarDhakal, David J. Fisk, ArnulfGrubler (CLA), Toshiaki Ichinose, James Keirstead,GerdSammer, David Satterthwaite, Niels B. Schulz,Nilay Shah, Julia Steinberger, Helga Weisz Contributing Authors: Gilbert Ahamer*, Timothy Baynes*, Daniel Curtis*, Michael Doherty, Nick Eyre*, Junichi Fujino*, Keisuke Hanaki, MikikoKainuma*,Shinji Kaneko, Manfred Lenzen, Jacqui Meyers, Hitomi Nakanishi, Victoria Novikova*, Krishnan S. Rajan, SeongwonSeo*,Ram ManoharShrestha*, P.R. Shukla*, Alice Sverdlik (*Contributors to GEA KM18 city energy data base) Resources:Online: www.globalenergyassessment.orgChapter 18 (main text)Supporting material: GEA KM18 working papers and city energy data base A. Grubler and D. Fisk (eds), Energizing Sustainable Cities:Assessing Urban Energy, Earthscan (2012)

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