Results of NAMAP (see much more in the CPC Atlas and BAMS paper)

1. Observed monthly precipitation estimated from in situ observations operational OI analysis is too cold in the Gulf of CA Monthly precipitation for the peak month of each simulation Real time global analysis tends to be too warm in the Gulf of CA  Huge range of simulated precipitation  No obvious systematic biases associated with model resolution, and repeated initialization in one of the simulations does not guarantee “best” results smallest bias! NAMAP2 A multi-model assessment of North American Monsoon simulations David S. Gutzler (and NAMAP2 collaborators) University of New Mexico gutzler@unm.edu Pingping Xie and Wanqiu Wang NOAA/NCEP/Climate Prediction Center pingping.xie@noaa.gov wanqiu.wang@noaa.gov Introduction NAMAP2 is a coordinated exercise in global and regional atmospheric modeling of the North American Monsoon System (NAMS). The summer season of 2004 (during which the NAME 2004 field campaign took place) is the simulation target. A preliminary discussion among potential participants to develop simulation protocols has just been completed and runs will be carried out over the next several months with analysis to follow immediately. The NAMAP2 project timeline is shown in the box to the right. The first NAME Model Assessment Project (NAMAP) was an attempt to engage the modeling community in advance of the NAME 2004 field campaign. NAMAP provided an indication of the ability of numerical models to simulate atmospheric variability across southwestern North America during the summer season. For NAMAP, numerical simulations of atmospheric variability across southwestern North America during a single summer (1990) were carried out independently by six modeling groups. The NAMAP analysis focused on the ability of the models to simulate the observed seasonal and (where observations permitted) diurnal cycles. The results provided motivation for enhanced observations in data-poor areas during the NAME 2004 Field Campaign and led to the formulation of metrics to quantify model simulation quality and improvement (CPC Atlas online 2004; Gutzler et al. 2005, in press in BAMS). NAMAP2 will re-examine the metrics proposed by NAMAP, extend the NAMAP analysis to transient variability, and exploit the extensive observational database provided by NAME 2004 to analyze simulation targets of special interest. A centralized comparative analysis of model output will be carried out at the NOAA Climate Prediction Center once the simulations are complete, and we hope that the simulations will be used by individual modeling groups as Control Runs for their own analysis purposes. Oceanic temperature data and (for regional models) lateral boundary conditions will be specified. The first phase of NAMAP, and other studies of the North American Monsoon, have indicated the sensitivity of the results to proper specification of SSTs in the Gulf of California. Motivated by this need, a new SST analysis has been developed for NAMAP2, as described in the lower right box. New participants are welcomed! Online registration at the NAMAP2 web page NAMAP2 Protocols and Timeline (see NAMAP2 web page for details) Simulation Timeline (22 June 2005 revision) Output Archiving Protocols (8 Sept 05 revision) a) For spatial analysis: Archive lat-lon fields covering the NAMAP2 domain every 3 hours (8/day) during the simulation period. Fields to archive: b) For high-resolution temporal analysis: Archive "MOLTS"-style time series (at least hourly in time and full vertical resolution). We will consider surface fluxes and profiles of humidity, T, u, v, w, p, resolved and convective precipitation, cloud fraction, radiation, and turbulence at model grid points corresponding to the following NAME sounding sites: Participants have expressed tentative interest in repeating the analysis for the 2005 season Simulation Guidelines(22 June 2005 revision) With the recent completion of the MPM SST analysis for summer 2004 (below), we are ready to begin the NAMAP2 simulations. Analysis of the simulations will begin in several months. NAMAP2-based publications will include full joint authorship (as in NAMAP). ** Please join us! ** NAMAP2 will extend the descriptive analysis of NAMAP with a process- oriented analysis of model output at NAME 2004 sounding sites. This component of the analysis is focused on cloud and precipitation processes. Results of NAMAP (see much more in the CPC Atlas and BAMS paper) NAMAP2 spatial analysis will focus on uncertainties identified in NAMAP, with additional emphasis on verification using enhanced observations from the NAME 2004 field campaign. Moisture transport and land surface hydrology will be assessed in detail. A new Multi-Platform-Merged (MPM) SST analysis for NAME and NAMAP2 (Xie & Wang) The first phase of NAMAP, and other studies of the North American Monsoon, have indicated the sensitivity of the results to proper specification of SSTs in the Gulf of California. Motivated by this need, a new SST analysis has been developed for NAMAP2 and other NAME research. Resolution: 0.25° in space, 3-hour in timeInput data: In situ observations (buoys and ships) Domain: 180°–30°W, 30°S–60°N (embedded within global OI analysis)Satellites: GOES, TMI, AMSR, NOAA-16, NOAA17 Target Period: 2001–present (summer 2004 completed) Fields merged via Optimum Interpolation after Bias Correction Six modeling groups (running 4 regional models and 2 global models) carried out the simulations of the 1990 warm season NAMAP was initiated to provide benchmark simulations of a representative warm season across Tier 1, prior to the NAME 2004 field campaign Mean difference (K) between analyses and in situ observations Jun 1-Aug 31, 2004 Mean differences (K) between analyses Jun 1-Aug 31, 2004 Time Series of 3-Hourly SST 109.875oW; 26.125oN Input SST fields Apr-May-Jun 2004 8/day clear sky Seasonal progression of monthly precipitation in the CORE and AZNM subdomains Monthly-average diurnal cycle of precipitation in the CORE and AZNM subdomains  Both global models exhibit delays in monsoon onset and peak precip  Big discrepancies in nocturnal precipitation as well as daytime convective peak 2/day all sky 2/day clear sky Monthly-average diurnal cycle of latent flux in AZNM  Huge range, poorly constrained by observations. Similar results obtained for sensible flux. NAMAP-derived goals for model improvement include: * Simulate observed monsoon onset within a week * Simulate monthly mean precipitation to within 20% * Simulate large scale surface fluxes to within 20% * Correctly simulate the diurnal cycle of convective and nonconvective precip These differences are currently being diagnosed, but at first glance they seem quite consistent with what we would expect from an improved analysis ... as suggested by the small bias of MPM relative to in situ data. 2/day all sky 2/day clear sky All NAMAP output is freely available at http://www.joss.ucar.edu/name/namap For More Information: contact Dave Gutzler NAMAP CPC Atlas: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/research_papers/ncep_cpc_atlas/11/index.html NAMAP2 web page: http://www.joss.ucar.edu/name/namap2