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World Agricultural Outlook Board Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee Forecasts

World Agricultural Outlook Board Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee Forecasts. May 9 , 2014. World Wheat Production. TURKEY. SYRIA. IRAN. IRAQ. MIDDLE EAST Winter Grains Crop Situation. 23 – 30 Apr 2014. TURKEY. SYRIA. IRAN. IRAQ. NDVI Anomaly above average

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World Agricultural Outlook Board Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee Forecasts

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  1. World Agricultural Outlook BoardInteragency Commodity Estimates Committee Forecasts May 9, 2014

  2. World Wheat Production May 9, 2014

  3. TURKEY SYRIA IRAN IRAQ MIDDLE EAST Winter Grains Crop Situation 23 – 30 Apr 2014 TURKEY SYRIA IRAN IRAQ NDVI Anomaly above average below May 9, 2014 MODIS satellite NASA GSFC

  4. MODIS Aqua Satellite Composite NDVI Percent Anomaly Image Comparison to mean: 04/23 - 04/30 2014 Sweden Denmark Ireland United Kingdom Poland Germany Czech Slovakia Austria France Hungary Romania Croatia Serbia Italy Bulgaria 4/23 – 4/30 2013 Spain Greece May 9, 2014

  5. World Wheat Supply and Use May 9, 2014

  6. U.S. Wheat Supply and Demand May 9, 2014

  7. World Rice Production May 9, 2014

  8. World Rice Supply and Use May 9, 2014

  9. U.S. Rice Supply and DemandRough Equivalent of Rough and Milled Rice May 9, 2014

  10. World Corn Production May 9, 2014

  11. Abandonment is forecast at nearly 7 percent, twice the 5-year average. May 9, 2014 Source: State Statistical Committee

  12. Corn planting was 79% complete by May 8. May 9, 2014 Source: MinAg

  13. GTIS data are available only through January. • Louis-Dreyfus analyst reports that corn-hybrid seed imports were up 50 percent at the end of February. • An estimated 25 to 50 percent of total corn area is planted with hybrid seed. May 9, 2014 Sources: GTIS (seed imports); USDA (yield)

  14. According to chief APK-Inform analyst, the decrease and fluctuation of the value of the UAH in 2009 had an unfavorable impact on spring-crop yields in Ukraine. May 9, 2014

  15. A 40-percent drop in the value of the UAH has increased prices for fuel, fertilizer, and chemicals. Producers will compensate by: • using cheaper materials; • purchasing untreated seed and treating it themselves; • focusing on fields with higher yield potential; • consolidating field operations. • Weather remains the top yield determinant. May 9, 2014

  16. World Corn Supply and Use May 9, 2014

  17. U.S. Corn Supply and Demand May 9, 2014

  18. Corn Yield • Yield = F (mid-May planting, July temperatures and precipitation, and June precipitation if extremely dry) • 8-State Corn Belt area (IL, IN, IA, MN, MO, NE, SD, OH) • States normally account for about 75 percent of production Source: Westcott and Jewison, Weather Effects on Expected Corn and Soybean Yields, USDA-ERS, Feed Outlook No. (FDS-13G-01), July 2013. • July temperature and precipitation assumed at the 1988-2013 means • 8-state planting progress as of mid-May • Ag Outlook Forum trend of 165.3 assumed normal mid-May planting progress • May 15, 2014, unknown until the May 19thCrop Progress report • May 4th progress at 29.1 percent for 8-state region, well ahead of last year at this time, but behind normal. May 9, 2014

  19. Corn Planting Progress 5/15 Source: NASS, Quick Stats 2.0 May 9, 2014

  20. Corn Weather-Adjusted Trend Yield vs. Actual and Projected May 9, 2014

  21. World Soybean Production May 9, 2014

  22. U.S. Soybean Supply and Demand May 9, 2014

  23. Soybean Weather-Adjusted Trend Yield vs. Actual and Projected

  24. World Cotton Production May 9, 2014

  25. May 9, 2014

  26. NSW/QLD Border Region Cumulative Precipitation May 1 – April 30 Percent of Normal Rainfall 2011/12 = 150% 2012/13 = 97% 2013/14 = 73% May 9, 2014

  27. May 9, 2014

  28. How does El Nino Impact Australian Cotton? Much too early to determine El Nino’s impact on production… …but the perceived threat may drive acreage. May 9, 2014

  29. World Cotton Supply and Use May 9, 2014

  30. U.S. Cotton Supply and Demand May 9, 2014

  31. Three-Year Running Annual Precipitation Totals, Lubbock, TX Driest 3-Year Periods 2011-13 1952-54 1951-53 1954-56 1953-55 Wettest 3-Year Periods 1967-69 1985-87 2006-08 2008-10 2007-09 May 9, 2014

  32. 3-Year Average: 55.5” May 9, 2014

  33. Cotton Abandonment RatesMay 2014 WASDE May 9, 2014

  34. U.S. Cotton Yield/Harvested Acre 2006-2013 and May 2014 Projection May 9, 2014

  35. Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand May 9, 2014

  36. U.S. Sugar Supply and Demand May 9, 2014

  37. U.S. Meat Production and Prices May 9, 2014

  38. U.S. Meat TradeMillion Pounds May 9, 2014

  39. U.S. Milk Supply and Demand May 9, 2014

  40. U.S. Dairy Product Prices May 9, 2014

  41. U.S. Production Summary May 9, 2014

  42. Domestic Demand Summary May 9, 2014

  43. U.S. Export Summary May 9, 2014

  44. 2013/14 2014/15 Change from estimate forecast 2013/14 Percent Crops and products Wheat ($/bu) 6.85 7.30 6.6 Rice ($/cwt) 16.10 15.50 -3.7 Corn ($/bu) 4.65 4.20 -9.7 Soybeans ($/bu) 13.10 10.75 -17.9 Soybean oil (¢/lb) 40.00 39.00 -2.5 Soybean meal ($/s.t.) 485.00 375.00 -22.7 Cotton (¢/lb) 77.50 73.00 -5.8 Livestock Steers ($/cwt) 146.1 150.8 3.2 Hogs ($/cwt) 77.9 72.8 -6.6 Broilers (¢/lb) 103.4 103.8 0.4 Turkeys (¢/lb) 105.7 106.5 0.8 Dairy products Cheese 2.01 1.72 -14.5 Butter 1.83 1.68 -8.2 Nonfat dry milk 1.84 1.64 -10.9 Dry whey 0.64 0.57 -11.1 Milk classes Class III ($/cwt) 20.70 17.40 -15.9 Class IV ($/cwt) 21.45 19.10 -11.0 All milk ($/cwt) 22.85 20.20 -11.6 Price Summary May 9, 2014

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