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Confirmation

Confirmation. The paradox of the 99’ Man. The Raven Paradox. A red herring confirms the hypothesis that all non-black things are non-ravens. The hypothesis that all non-black things are non-ravens is logically equivalent to the hypothesis that all ravens are black.

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Confirmation

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  1. Confirmation The paradox of the 99’ Man

  2. The Raven Paradox A red herring confirms the hypothesis that all non-black things are non-ravens. The hypothesis that all non-black things are non-ravens is logically equivalent to the hypothesis that all ravens are black. If (1) and (2), then a red herring confirms the hypothesis that all ravens are black. [So] A red herring confirms the hypothesis that all ravens are black.

  3. The First Premise • A red herring confirms the hypothesis that all non-black things are non-ravens. • Nicod’s Criterion (a): A generalization is confirmed to some degree by an F that is G.

  4. Arguments by Analogy Hamlet can be read in one evening. Hamlet is similar to Macbeth. [So] Macbeth can be read in one evening.

  5. Arguments by Analogy This raven is black. This raven is similar to all ravens. [So] All ravens are black.

  6. Arguments by Analogy This crow is black. This crow is similar to all ravens. [So] All ravens are black.

  7. Arguments by Analogy This non-blackthing is a non-raven. This non-black thing is similar to all non-black things. [So] All non-black things are non-ravens.

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