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Confirmation

Confirmation. The raven paradox. Review. Nicod’s Criterion : A generalization is confirmed (to some degree) by an F that is G. A generalization is disproved by an F that is not G. A generalization is neither confirmed nor disproved by non-Fs that are not G or by non-Fs that are G.

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Confirmation

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  1. Confirmation The raven paradox

  2. Review • Nicod’s Criterion: • A generalization is confirmed (to some degree) by an F that is G. • A generalization is disproved by an F that is not G. • A generalization is neither confirmed nor disproved by non-Fs that are not G or by non-Fs that are G. • The Rule of Contraposition: Statements of the form All Fs are Gare logically equivalent to statements of the form All non-Gs are non-Fs. • The Equivalence Confirmation Thesis: Logically equivalent statements are confirmed by the same things.

  3. The Raven Paradox A red herring confirms the hypothesis that all non-black things are non-ravens. The hypothesis that all non-black things are non-ravens is logically equivalent to the hypothesis that all ravens are black. If (1) and (2), then a red herring confirms the hypothesis that all ravens are black. [So] A red herring confirms the hypothesis that all ravens are black.

  4. The Raven Paradox A red herring confirms the hypothesis that all non-white things are non-ravens. The hypothesis that all non-white things are non-ravens is logically equivalent to the hypothesis that all ravens are white. If (1) and (2), then a red herring confirms the hypothesis that all ravens are white. [So] A red herring confirms the hypothesis that all ravens are white.

  5. The Conclusion A red herring confirms the hypothesis that all ravens are black. Nicod’s Criterion (c): A generalization is neither confirmed nor disproved by non-Fs that are not G or by non-Fs that are G. An infinitesimal is an infinitely small value.

  6. The Raven Paradox A red herring confirms the hypothesis that all non-black things are non-ravens. The hypothesis that all non-black things are non-ravens is logically equivalent to the hypothesis that all ravens are black. If (1) and (2), then a red herring confirms the hypothesis that all ravens are black. [So] A red herring confirms the hypothesis that all ravens are black.

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