Food Provision Vulnerability & Sustainability Social Vulnerability

1. GECAFS Comprehensive Scenarios Workshop18-19 August 2003, University Of Reading UKG. Fischer, M.M. Shah, H.T. van VelthuizenInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria

2. GECAFSScenarios : Spatial, TemporalFood ProvisionProduction & Trade = ConsumptionDriving Force and VulnerabilitySocial, Economic, EnvironmentalGLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE

3. Food System ScenariosFAO : Towards 2030IFPRI 2020IIASA : Towards 2080(ecologically spatial, global environmental change …)

4. Food Provision Vulnerability & Sustainability Social Vulnerability Population, Hunger, Poverty, Health, Education….. Economic Vulnerability Agriculture Economy, Trade and Aid, Employment & Livelihoods,….. Environmental Vulnerability Land, Water, Biodiversity, Pollution……

5. Historical Population Density, 1700 – 1990 History Database of the Global Environment Reference: K.Goldeweijk and J.J. Battjes

6. Historical Cropland Dataset (1700-1992) Fraction of grid cell in croplands Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment Reference: Ramankutty, N. and J. Foley, 1998, 1999.

7. Population Growth 2000-2080 Source: Lutz et al., 2001

8. Population

9. Poverty

10. The State of Food Insecurity (Source: FAO, 2001)

11. Millennium Goals Goals for 2015 50% Reduction in hunger (cf 1974, 1996, 2002) 67% Reduction in child mortality 50% Reduction in poverty 50% Increase in access to potable water Universal primary education Eliminate gender disparity 75% Reduction in maternal mortality Reverse spread of HIV/Aids WB Cost Estimate: $40 to $60 billion a year FAO Hunger Estimate: $ 24 Billion a year

12. Land Use is at the core of Economy–Society–Environment relationships LANDUSESYSTEMS

13. Agro-ecological Zones Methodology

14. Global Agro-ecological Zones Environmental resources databaseincluding climate, soil, terrain, and land covercomprising 2.2 million grid cells,assessing the agricultural potential Food crops, Bio-energy crops, Livestock Systems Fish : Inland and marine ?

15. BLS Model System18 National Models, 2 Regional Models, 14 other Regional ModelsCommodities : wheat, rice, coarse grains, protein feed, bovine and ovine meat,dairy products, other animal products, other food, non-food agriculture,non-agriculture.Linkage : trade, world market prices and financial flows National and Regional Models Argentina, Australia, Austria, Brazil, Canada, Egypt, Indonesia, Japan, Kenya, Mexico, New Zealand, Nigeria, Pakistan, Thailand, Turkey, China, India, USA European Union, Eastern Europe and former USSR AFRICA (Oil exporters, medium and low income : exporters and importers) LATIN AMERICA (high-income : exporters and importers, medium income) SOUTHEAST ASIA (high-medium income exporters and importers) SOUTH ASIA (low income) SOUTHWEST ASIA (oil exporters, medium-low income) Rest of the world

16. Integrated ecological-economic Analysis of the Impact of Climate Change on Food and Agriculture Systems

17. C O U N T R Y A E X C H A N G E P R O D U C T I O N E Q U I L I B R I U M N o n - a g r i c u l t u r e A g r i c u l t u r e p r o d u c t i o n p r o d u c t i o n P r i c e s , c o n s u m p t i o n , s t o c k s , n e t e x p o r t s t o s a t i s f y : P r o d u c t i o n i n p u t s : • B u d g e t c o n s t r a i n t • L a n d • F e r t i l i z e r • M a r k e t c l e a r a n c e • L a b o u r • O t h e r s • T r a d e b a l a n c e • C a p i t a l • T r a d e q u o t a G O V E R N M E N T P O L I C I E S T a r g e t p r i c e , t a r i f f s , t a x e s , q u o t a , e t c . I n t e r n a t i o n a l c o m m o d i t y p r i c e s P N e t t r a d e E W A C O U N T R Y B P W W O R L D M A R K E T S E B I n t e r n a t i o n a l p r i c e s t o s a t i s f y : • c o m m o d i t y b a l a n c e s • f i n a n c i a l t r a n s f e r b a l a n c e E E E C D E P P P W W W C O U N T R Y C C O U N T R Y D C O U N T R Y E The International Linkage in the World Food System Model

18. CLIMATE CHANGE CARBON FOREST LOSS / DEGRADATION FIRES, PESTS FERTILIZER CONVERSION AGRO- ECOLOGY HYDRO- LOGY FRAG- MEN- TATION PESTI- CIDES SOIL FERTILITY GENETIC DIVERSITY LAND DEGRADATION BIODIVERSITY LOSS EROSION, SALINIZATION Food Production and Global Environmental Change FOOD PRODUCTION

19. Climate Change and Development Climate Change Temperature rise Precipitation change Sea-level rise Variability & extreme events Human and natural systems Land and water resources Ecosystems and biodiversity Human settlements & infrastructure Human health Impacts Adaptation, Vulnerability Emissions andconcentrations Greenhouse gases Aerosols Socio-economic Development path Demographic change Economic growth Technology Policy & Institutions Mitigation

20. IPCC SRES Scenarios Source: IPCC, 2001.

21. A1,B1 A2 B2 IPCC SRES Development Scenarios to 2100 Population, Scenario A1, B1 GDP per caput Population, Scenario B2 Population, Scenario A2

22. CLIMATE VARIABILITY

23. DroughtsFrequency of Droughts : 115 Affected Population : 163 millionEthiopia, Mozambique, Somalia : 43% Ethiopia, Mozambique, Somalia : 62% Floods Frequency of Floods : 127 Affected Population : 17 million Mozambique, Somalia, Zambia : 27% Mozambique, Somalia, Zambia : 50%

24. IIASA ScenariosSpatial : National and RegionalTemporal : Annual to 2080EnvironmentalLand and Water resources – Agro-ecological zonesClimate Change – GCMs/IPCC 3GGI - Mitigation and AdaptationEconomy and TradeNational/regional and international SocialPopulation and demography,Hunger and Poverty, Health…