BCSIA Library December 14, 2004

1. MTA SEMINARWhat’s Wrong With Turkey’s Quest for Nuclear Power!?MUSTAFA KIBAROGLU, Ph.D.ISP & MTA FellowBelfer Center for Science and International AffairsJohn F. Kennedy School of GovernmentHARVARD UNIVERSITY BCSIA Library December 14, 2004

2. What’s Wrong With Turkey’s Quest for Nuclear Power!? Turkey’s international standing: Signed the NPT in January 1969 and ratified in April 1980; SignedSafeguards Agreement with the IAEA (INFCIRC/295) in September 1981; Ratified the Additional Protocol in July 2001; Signed the CTBTAugust 1996 and ratified in February 2001; Member of the Zangger Committee and the NSG since June 2000; Member of the MTCR since April 1997; Signed the BTWC in April 1972 and ratified in November 1974; Signed the CWC in January 1993 and ratified in May 1997; Mustafa Kibaroglu ISP/MTA Fellow

3. What’s Wrong With Turkey’s Quest for Nuclear Power!? Some facts about Turkey Population : 67 + millions Population growth rate: 2.1% per annum Population forecast: 85 millions in 2010; 100 millions in 2020 Total energy energy production: 26 million tons oil equivalent (mtoe) in 2003 Total energy energy consumption:2003 84 mtoe; 2010 126 mtoe; 2020 222 mtoe Total electricity consumption: 150 billion kilowatt hours (TWh) in 2004 Increase in electricity consumption: 7% per annum Distribution of energy sources: 38% oil; 27% coal; 23% gas; 12% hydraulic Mustafa Kibaroglu ISP/MTA Fellow

4. What’s Wrong With Turkey’s Quest for Nuclear Power!? Estimates of electricity consumption by various institutions …MoE :2005197 TWh;2010294 TWh;2020570 TWh …TEAS :2005212 TWh;2010290 TWh;2020547 TWh …CEE :2005171 TWh;2010224 TWh;2020310 TWh The consumption figure for 2004 which is 150TWhsuggests that, with a 7% increaseper annum, the energy consumption in 2005 should be around 160.5 TWh.This implies that for the year 2005 there is: … 18.6% deviation in the estimate of MoE; … 24.3% deviation in the estimate of TEAS; … 6.2% deviation in the estimate of the CEE; Mustafa Kibaroglu ISP/MTA Fellow

5. What’s Wrong With Turkey’s Quest for Nuclear Power!? Turkey’s energy potential as of 2004 Installed capacity: 37,480 MWe Share of indigenous sources: ~30 percent Thermal potential: 120 TWh Installed thermal capacity: 42 TWh (35%) Hydroelectric potential: 128 TWh Installed hydroelectric capacity: 45 TWh (35%) Total energy potential: 248 TWh Total capacity created: 87 TWh (35%) Total energy consumed: 150 TWh Need for new capacity by 2020: 54,080 MWe Share of nuclear by 2012: 4,500 MWe Mustafa Kibaroglu ISP/MTA Fellow

6. What’s Wrong With Turkey’s Quest for Nuclear Power!? Major steps in Turkey’s interest in nuclear energy …In 1956 the Turkish Atomic Energy Commission (TAEC) was established under the auspices of the Turkish Prime Ministry “to coordinate efforts to build nuclear research and training centers, and to issue licenses for nuclear power plants”; …In 1961 the Cekmece Nuclear Research and Training Center (CNRTC) was established and a 1 MWth pool-type research reactor TR-1 was installed in 1962; …In 1966 the Ankara Nuclear Research and Training Center (ANRTC) was established “to carry out fundamental and applied research to use nuclear energy and technology for the benefit of the country and to support national development”; …In 1967 first feasibility studies for the construction of 400 MWe PHWR were launched in order to start generating electricity by 1977; …From1972to1974 site selection studies for a 600 MWenuclear power plant were conducted throughout Turkey and in 1976 TAEC issued license for the Akkuyu Bay on the Mediterranean “due to its stable seismic conditions”; Mustafa Kibaroglu ISP/MTA Fellow

7. What’s Wrong With Turkey’s Quest for Nuclear Power!? Akkuyu Bay site for nuclear power plant * IAEA Public Relations official Hans Frederich Meyer said,“Akkuyu is the most suitable place in the world to build a nuclear power plant”. Turkish Daily News, May 31, 1997 Mustafa Kibaroglu ISP/MTA Fellow

8. What’s Wrong With Turkey’s Quest for Nuclear Power!? Major steps in Turkey’s interest in nuclear energy(cont’d) …In 1977 negotiations on the construction of a 600 MWe power plant begun with two half-state-owned Swedish firms, namely Asea-Atom and Stal-Laval; …In 1979 the 250 kWthTriga Mark II research reactor started in operation; …In 1980 site selection survey for a second nuclear power plant begun and Inceburun on the Black Sea shore was selected; …In 1981 the TR-1, which was shut down in 1977, was replaced by a 5 MWth pool-type research reactor TR-2; …In 1982 TAECwas replaced by Turkish Atomic Energy Authority(TAEK) as a governmental organization “under the direct supervision of the Prime Minister”; …In 1983 letters of intentwereissuedto 3 firms: AECL for a 655 MWe CANDU (Akkuyu); KWU for 990 MWe PWR (Akkuyu); GEfor 1,185 MWe BWR (Sinop); Mustafa Kibaroglu ISP/MTA Fellow

9. What’s Wrong With Turkey’s Quest for Nuclear Power!? Major steps in Turkey’s interest in nuclear energy(cont’d) ...General Electric (GE) soonwithdrawn, but AECL and KWU continued. At a later stage KWU as well withdrawn; …In 1984 the Turkish government suggested Built-Operate-Transfer (BOT) to AECL for two CANDUreactors one in Akkuyu and one in Inceburun (Sinop); …Allegations about an “illegalTurkish-Pakistani connection” are intensified and they have affected the Canadianfirm, which had already encounteredtroubles in financing the bid, resulting in a deadlock in the negotiations; …In 1988 Turkey signed a 15-year nuclear cooperation agreement with Argentina for “technical assistance” including “front-end nuclear fuel-cycle research and development, and research on power and research reactor planning, construction, quality assurance, operation and regulation”; …Turkey is interested in Argentine380 MWe Argos PWR designed by Empresa Nuclear Argentina de Centrales Electricas (ENACE); Mustafa Kibaroglu ISP/MTA Fellow

10. What’s Wrong With Turkey’s Quest for Nuclear Power!? Major steps in Turkey’s interest in nuclear energy(cont’d) ...As part of the agreement Turkish scientists and technicians would go toBariloche Nuclear Center in Argentina for “training”; …Turkey also sought an agreement for an Argentine25 MWe CAREM nuclear reactor developed by Investigaciones Aplicadas (INVAP) at Bariloche Center; …In 1990Turkey and Argentina agreed to form a joint architect-engineering firmto develop Argentina’s modular low power CAREM-25 reactors “to export to other nations in Latin America, Africa and the Middle East” in the long term; …The United States was said to have “worried because of the fears that Turkey might sell the technology, that it would acquire from Argentina, to Pakistan”; …Prof. Dr. Yalcin Sanalan, then Director of TAEK, soon cancelled the CAREM-25 deal which he “found ambiguous, because CAREM was too small for electricity generation, too big for research and training, but suitable for plutonium production: thus a proliferation concern that would diminish Turkey’s chances in the future”; Mustafa Kibaroglu ISP/MTA Fellow

11. What’s Wrong With Turkey’s Quest for Nuclear Power!? Major steps in Turkey’s interest in nuclear energy(cont’d) ...in 1995 the Korean Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI) won a contract for “investigation of internationally accepted contemporary nuclear power plant types and systems feasible for Turkey; review of bids solicited during previous attempts to set up a nuclear program in Turkey; and consultations with TEAS during bid evaluations and contract negotiations”; …In 1996 Turkey planned to acceptbids for Akkuyu nuclear power plant either as a single unit of 1,200 MWeortwo units of 600 MWe each; …Three consortia made offers in the bidding: 1.Westinghouse (USA), Mitsubishi (Japan) Enka-MNG (Turkey); 2.AECL (Canada), Kuarner John Brown (Britain), Hitachi (Japan), Gama-Guris-Bayindir (Turkey), Ansoldo (Italy) Daiwoo (Korea). 3.NPI (France-Germany), Siemens (Germany), Framatome (France), Campenon Bernard-Hochtief-Garanti (Germany-Turkey), Simko, STFA, Tekfen (Turkey); …In June 2000, the Turkish government postponed the bid “to be considered at a later timedue to a lack of financial resources”; Mustafa Kibaroglu ISP/MTA Fellow

12. What’s Wrong With Turkey’s Quest for Nuclear Power!? Why did Turkey’s repeated attempts to install nuclear power plants fail? International Concerns: 1...Worries about illicit cooperation between Turkey and Pakistan; 2...Allegations of secret desires to build nuclear weapons capability; Domestic Disorder: 1...Lack of well defined objectives; 2...Lack of coordination within bureaucracy; 3...Lack of a master plan; 4...Lack of a reliable database; 5...Lack of financial resources; 6...Abundance of opposition to nuclear energy; Mustafa Kibaroglu ISP/MTA Fellow

13. What’s Wrong With Turkey’s Quest for Nuclear Power! Major arguments against nuclear energy in Turkey 1...Nuclear energy is old fashioned and abandoned in the developed world; 2...Renewable energy is fashionable and Turkey has enough potential; 3...Nuclear energy is not cheap anymore, and its percentage will be small; 4...Nuclear accidents can have catastrophic effects; 5...Nuclear waste disposal is a big problem yet to be found a safe solution; 6...Nuclear energy plants increase dependency on foreign fuel; 7...Energy consumption estimates are exaggerated; 8...Uprading the energy distribution system costs cheaper; 9...Akkuyu is very close to faultlines: sesimic studies must be revised; 10...Real objective is to have nuclear power, not nuclear energy; Mustafa Kibaroglu ISP/MTA Fellow

14. What’s Wrong With Turkey’s Quest for Nuclear Power! My arguments against possession of nuclear weapons by Turkey 1...Turkey is a member of the NPT as a NNWS; 2...Turkey has comprehensive safeguards agreement with the IAEA; 3...Turkey is a state party to the Additional Protocol of the IAEA; 4...Interest groups and NGOs in Turkey will not tolerate clandestine efforts; 5...Turkey is a member of NATO and has EU membership perspective; 6...Turkey has powerful armed forces & doesn’t need nukes to deter enemies; 7...Turkey cannot use nuclear weapons effectively in any scenario; 8...Confrontation with the world will have disastrous effects for Turkey; 9...Turkey’sneighbors may wage proxy wars, as did Syria in the past; 10...Real objective should be to have nuclear energy, not nuclear weapons; Mustafa Kibaroglu ISP/MTA Fellow

15. What’s Wrong With Turkey’s Quest for Nuclear Power! Conference on Energy Resources and Security, January 15-16, 2004, War Academies, Istanbul Mustafa Kibaroglu ISP/MTA Fellow

16. MTA SEMINARWhat’s Wrong With Turkey’s Quest for Nuclear Power?MUSTAFA KIBAROGLU, Ph.D.ISP & MTA FellowBelfer Center for Science and International AffairsJohn F. Kennedy School of GovernmentHARVARD UNIVERSITY BCSIA Library December 14, 2004