1 / 18

The Great Floods of 1993 and 2008 : The Roles of ENSO and the MJO/GWO

The Great Floods of 1993 and 2008 : The Roles of ENSO and the MJO/GWO. Edward Berry, NOAA/NWS DDC and Klaus Weickmann, NOAA/ESRL PSD. NOAA 33 rd Annual Climate Diagnostics and Predictability Workshop Lincoln, Nebraska October 20 th , 2008. Venice, Iowa (was Cedar Rapids). OUTLINE.

anthonyguzman
Download Presentation

The Great Floods of 1993 and 2008 : The Roles of ENSO and the MJO/GWO

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. The Great Floods of 1993 and 2008 : The Roles of ENSO and the MJO/GWO Edward Berry, NOAA/NWS DDC and Klaus Weickmann, NOAA/ESRL PSD NOAA 33rd Annual Climate Diagnostics and Predictability Workshop Lincoln, Nebraska October 20th, 2008 Venice, Iowa (was Cedar Rapids)

  2. OUTLINE The Global Wind Oscillation: Introduction Schematic GWO/MJO phase spaces ENSO precipitation signals for 1993 and 2008 GWO/MJO phase spaces during 1993 and 2008 May 22-26 case study: SNR 250 hPa PSI composites and potential predictability Summary

  3. Purpose is to examine the interannual-subseasonal relationships of the global atmospheric circulation that may have contributed to the “great floods.”

  4. L L H H L L • Want: • > 1 region • monopole The Global Wind “Oscillation”

  5. Models Struggle

  6. Models Struggle

  7. 2008 1993 La-Nina El-Nino

  8. GWO 1993 GWO 2008 El-Nino El-Nino Weak subseasonal variations. Large subseasonal variations June May July June La-Nina La-Nina

  9. MJO 1993 MJO 2008 Weak subseasonal variations Large subseasonal variations May June July June

  10. Case Study Severe Local Storms/Heavy Rainfall May 22-26

  11. MJO GWO H H L L L H H H L L H L L H H H Centered on 15 May

  12. H H L L H H

  13. WK-2 CPC WK-2 GEFS WK-2: May 23-29 See May 10th and 15th blog postings for details WK-2 500mb Zt OBS WK-2 500mb Za OBS

  14. May 23-29 Air Temperature Anomaly Forecasts CPC OBS

  15. Summary Jun-Jul 1993 mean anomalies imply “flood”; May-Jun 2008 anomalies do not => suggests larger subseasonal role in 2008 “Synoptics” of these spring-summer central USA floods may be similar when ENSO decays rapidly and during a large subseasonal oscillation Real-time monitoring utilizing SNR composites for both the GWO and MJO offered ~week-2 forecast opportunities at times when operational model predictions failed 250 hPa PSI SNR for tropics ~0.6-0.8σ versus ~0.2-0.3σ across the extratropics for both MJO and GWO => weak but useful signals

  16. Questions ?

More Related