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Francis Schubiger and Pirmin Kaufmann , MeteoS wiss Uli Damrath, DWD

Precipitation verification (overestimation): a common view of the behaviour of the LM, aLMo and LAMI. Francis Schubiger and Pirmin Kaufmann , MeteoS wiss Uli Damrath, DWD Elena Oberto, Marco Turco, Paolo Bertolotto, ARPA Piedmont. difference of mean monthly rain gauges in D and CH.

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Francis Schubiger and Pirmin Kaufmann , MeteoS wiss Uli Damrath, DWD

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  1. Precipitation verification (overestimation):a common viewof the behaviour of the LM, aLMo and LAMI Francis Schubiger and Pirmin Kaufmann, MeteoSwiss Uli Damrath, DWD Elena Oberto, Marco Turco, Paolo Bertolotto, ARPA Piedmont

  2. difference of mean monthly rain gauges in D and CH francis.schubiger@Meteoswiss.ch COSMO General Meeting, Zurich, 20-23.09.05 C. Schraff, DWD

  3. Verification of aLMo Winter 03/04 over Switzerland francis.schubiger@Meteoswiss.ch COSMO General Meeting, Zurich, 20-23.09.05 full line: obs (ANETZ); dashed: black: aLMo, red: LM

  4. Verification of aLMo Winter 02/03 over Switzerland francis.schubiger@Meteoswiss.ch COSMO General Meeting, Zurich, 20-23.09.05 full line: obs (ANETZ); dashed: black: aLMo, red: LM

  5. Verification of the cloud ice testsuite in aLMofrom 04.02-19.03.2004 francis.schubiger@Meteoswiss.ch COSMO General Meeting, Zurich, 20-23.09.05 full line: obs (ANETZ); dashed: black: aLMo blue: aLMo-cloud ice, red: LM

  6. Verification of aLMo Winter 04/05 over Switzerland francis.schubiger@Meteoswiss.ch COSMO General Meeting, Zurich, 20-23.09.05 full line: obs (ANETZ); dashed: black: aLMo, red: LM

  7. francis.schubiger@Meteoswiss.ch COSMO General Meeting, Zurich, 20-23.09.05

  8. Verification with raingauges in D and CH francis.schubiger@Meteoswiss.ch COSMO General Meeting, Zurich, 20-23.09.05

  9. Verification with raingauges in CH francis.schubiger@Meteoswiss.ch COSMO General Meeting, Zurich, 20-23.09.05

  10. Verification of aLMo Winter 04/05 SYNOP francis.schubiger@Meteoswiss.ch COSMO General Meeting, Zurich, 20-23.09.05

  11. Precipitation: scores of aLMo Winter 00/01 francis.schubiger@Meteoswiss.ch COSMO General Meeting, Zurich, 20-23.09.05 verification with 12h-sums from SYNOP

  12. Precipitation: scores of aLMo Winter 01/02 francis.schubiger@Meteoswiss.ch COSMO General Meeting, Zurich, 20-23.09.05 verification with 12h-sums from SYNOP

  13. Precipitation: scores of aLMo Winter 02/03 francis.schubiger@Meteoswiss.ch COSMO General Meeting, Zurich, 20-23.09.05 verification with 12h-sums from SYNOP

  14. Precipitation: scores of aLMo Winter 03/04 francis.schubiger@Meteoswiss.ch COSMO General Meeting, Zurich, 20-23.09.05 verification with 12h-sums from SYNOP

  15. Precipitation: scores of aLMo Winter 04/05 francis.schubiger@Meteoswiss.ch COSMO General Meeting, Zurich, 20-23.09.05 verification with 12h-sums from SYNOP

  16. Latest results in the precipitation verification over Piedmont • Eyeball verification: seasonal cum maps of D+1 forecast • Seasonal statistical indices • Special focus over last winter (DJF’05): • Statistical indices for increasing thresholds • Scatter plot of daily precipitation over each basins: seasonal and monthly Elena Oberto, Marco Turco, Paolo Bertolotto (*) ARPA Piemonte, Torino, Italy

  17. francis.schubiger@Meteoswiss.ch COSMO General Meeting, Zurich, 20-23.09.05

  18. DJF 2004 OBSERVED ALMO LAMI Prec (mm) francis.schubiger@Meteoswiss.ch COSMO General Meeting, Zurich, 20-23.09.05 LOKAL

  19. francis.schubiger@Meteoswiss.ch COSMO General Meeting, Zurich, 20-23.09.05 Scale (mm)

  20. LM-DWD 00 Prec (mm) OBSERVED LAMI 00 aLMo 00 francis.schubiger@Meteoswiss.ch COSMO General Meeting, Zurich, 20-23.09.05 Verification over Piedmont ; winter 04/05

  21. Seasonal trend of BIAS and ETS Threshold=10mm/24h Forecast time: +00/+24. The error bars indicates 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles of resampled distribution, applied to the "reference" model. Djf’05 too much dryno statistic in the next slides there is a special focus francis.schubiger@Meteoswiss.ch COSMO General Meeting, Zurich, 20-23.09.05 LoKal aLMo LAMI

  22. Seasonal trend of BIAS and ETS Threshold=10mm/24h Forecast time: +24/+48. The error bars indicates 2.5th and 97.5th percentiles of resampled distribution, applied to the "reference" model. LoKal aLMo francis.schubiger@Meteoswiss.ch COSMO General Meeting, Zurich, 20-23.09.05 LAMI

  23. Conclusions • a possible cause for the precipitation overestimation is the cloud ice scheme • but another causes (masked by the precipitation variability) are also possible, because • already before the introduction of cloud ice scheme we had seasons with precipitation overestimation • we have regions (especially in southern Europe) with no changes in the yearly (seasonal) biases in the last years francis.schubiger@Meteoswiss.ch COSMO General Meeting, Zurich, 20-23.09.05

  24. Outlook (1) • more work necessary to fix the causes for precipitation overestimation • scatter plots of daily precipitation sums 'LM vs raingauges, SYNOP-stations, RADAR areal mean’ : this helps to see if this overestimation is due to (some few) cases where the model gives (much) precipitation that is not observed, or whether overestimation of precipitation is a problem in all cases francis.schubiger@Meteoswiss.ch COSMO General Meeting, Zurich, 20-23.09.05

  25. winter 2004 (djf) aLMo D+1 Scatterplot of mean daily precipitation over the Piedmont basins francis.schubiger@Meteoswiss.ch COSMO General Meeting, Zurich, 20-23.09.05

  26. winter 2004 (djf) Lokal D+1 Scatterplot of mean daily precipitation over the Piedmont basins francis.schubiger@Meteoswiss.ch COSMO General Meeting, Zurich, 20-23.09.05

  27. winter 2004 (djf) LAMI D+1 Scatterplot of mean daily precipitation over the Piedmont basins francis.schubiger@Meteoswiss.ch COSMO General Meeting, Zurich, 20-23.09.05

  28. winter 2005 (djf) aLMo D+1 Scatterplot of mean daily precipitation over the Piedmont basins francis.schubiger@Meteoswiss.ch COSMO General Meeting, Zurich, 20-23.09.05

  29. winter 2005 (djf) Lokal D+1 Scatterplot of mean daily precipitation over the Piedmont basins francis.schubiger@Meteoswiss.ch COSMO General Meeting, Zurich, 20-23.09.05

  30. winter 2005 (djf) LAMI D+1 Scatterplot of mean daily precipitation over the Piedmont basins francis.schubiger@Meteoswiss.ch COSMO General Meeting, Zurich, 20-23.09.05

  31. scatterplot daily precipitation Germany: August 2002 francis.schubiger@Meteoswiss.ch COSMO General Meeting, Zurich, 20-23.09.05

  32. Scatterplot daily precipitation Germany: December 2002 francis.schubiger@Meteoswiss.ch COSMO General Meeting, Zurich, 20-23.09.05

  33. Scatterplot daily precipitation Germany: December 2004 francis.schubiger@Meteoswiss.ch COSMO General Meeting, Zurich, 20-23.09.05

  34. Outlook (2) • more work would be necessary to fix the causes for precipitation overestimation • scatter plots of daily precipitation sums 'LM vs raingauges, SYNOP-stations, RADAR areal mean’ : this helps to see if this overestimation is due to (some few) cases where the model gives (much) precipitation that is not observed, or whether overestimation of precipitation is a problem in all cases • set up a simple conditional verification by discriminating: • between events of different (observed) vertical stability i.e., unstable = convective (?), stable = stratiform (?) • convective/stratiform precip in the model. This would help to attribute the problem to the grid-scale precipitation scheme or the convection scheme, or something else. francis.schubiger@Meteoswiss.ch COSMO General Meeting, Zurich, 20-23.09.05

  35. Outlook (3) • strong link to WG1-WG3 for sensitivity studies on a set of selected cases / episodes: • analysis / data assimilation • dynamics and numerics • physics francis.schubiger@Meteoswiss.ch COSMO General Meeting, Zurich, 20-23.09.05

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