U sing an Infrastructure Planning Support System to quantify climate change

1. Using an Infrastructure Planning Support System to quantify climate change Presentation by: Michael Tarbert Environmental Sustainability REU Advisor: Dr. Chinowsky Mentor: Amy Schweikert

2. Presentation Outline • Project Background • Methodology • Results • Conclusions • Summary

3. ICliCS, IPSS, Research Importance Project BAckground

4. Background • ICliCS researches the immediate and far reaching effects of climate, both quantitatively and qualitatively on basic infrastructure. • Contracts with International organizations and governments.

5. Background: Infrastructure • Why is infrastructure important? • Key to economic growth. • Important for social growth, especially in developing countries. • Indicator for all 8 Millennium Development goals (African Union, 2005)

6. Background: Importance • Why is climate change important to infrastructure? • First, we must accept climate change is currently happening, and will continue to occur. • Second, we must understand the importance of Infrastructure and transportation networks to the human population. • Third, infrastructure is vulnerable to the effects of climate change. • This study focuses on the road transportation

7. Background: IPSS • Infrastructure Planning Support System (IPSS) • Program that utilizes global climate modeling predictions through the year 2100 to produce quantitative data • Monetary costs to adapt, and not to adapt to climate change (Produce annual costs) • Study uses IPSS to: • quantify the impacts climate change (temperature and precipitation) on road infrastructure. • Assist policymakers to determine future actions.

8. Background: Purpose • The purpose of this study is to update a former study- ‘Climate change: comparative impact on developing and developed countries’ (Chinowsky et al. 2011) • Climate change impacts on road infrastructure in 10 different countries, ranging from Lower to Upper income levels. • Show why adapting is necessary • Show why developing countries are especially in danger!

9. Background: 10 Countries

10. Climate Modeling, Road Impacts Methodology

11. Methodology: Climate Modeling • Global Circulation Models (GCM’s) • 54 IPCC approved models • Future climate predictions • GIS as a tool using Climate Research Units (CRU) (grid structure) • Climate data (GCM’s) applied to road inventory by CRU grid.

12. Methodology: Road Impacts • IPSS looks for stress factors • Precipitation or temperature threshold is exceeded, inducing extra maintenance cost. • Left with decision: To adapt, or not to adapt… • Unpaved  Gravel • Gravel  Update drainage methods • Paved  Update Binder types • ***No adapt incurs increased maintenance costs

13. Median/Max costs, Opportunity Cost, Risk Analysis Results

14. Results: determining Max/Median Finding Median and Maximum Costs by GCM

19. Results: Opportunity Cost • Universal evaluation method developed by ICliCS • OCx=(CCx⁄SRCx)/PRx • X- country of interest • OC- Opportunity Cost (%) • CC- Total cost of climate change • SRC- cost to construct 1 km of secondary paved road • PR- Countries current paved road stock • Shows the amount of paved road inventory a country could have constructed through 2100

20. Results: Opportunity Cost

21. Results: Risk Analysis

22. Results: Risk Analysis

23. Results: Risk Analysis

25. Adapting, Developing Countries, Future Work Conclusions

26. Conclusions • Adapting road infrastructure is beneficial • It makes ‘cents’ • Positive social implications • Assists in meeting MDG

27. Conclusions • Developing countries incur the most cost • Yet, have the least amount of resources to adapt let alone expand infrastructure • IPSS is a tool that can be used to formulate infrastructure plans and mitigate climate change impacts

28. Conclusions: Future Work • Sustainable construction practices • More in-depth country detail- accuracy • Including a growth function for road stock • More realistic approach

29. Questions?