Climate Change and Food Security in the Caribbean Using scenario analyses for decision support

1. Climate Change and Food Security in the Caribbean Using scenario analyses for decision support Adrian Trotman Chief of Applied Meteorology and Climatology (Ag) Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology

2. State of agriculture and foodin the Caribbean • Agriculture’s contribution to the economies of CARICOM states have been on the decline since the 1970s • Net agricultural trade moved from being a surplus of US$2.9 billion in 1988 to a deficit of US$2.2 billion in 2004 (CARICOM donor conference draft document 2007) • Losses in preferential markets for traditional crops in Europe • Except for Guyana and Belize, CARICOM states became net importers of food • The Jagdeo Initiative, seeks to breathe new life into the agriculture and related sectors

3. Recent Climate-related Impacts • Flooding in Guyana in 2005 - affected 37 % of the population, 34 deaths, approximately US$55 million in damage to the agricultural sector. A similar, but smaller-scale event the following year resulted in total losses to the sector of US$22.5 million (ECLAC 2005, ECLAC 2006). • In Grenada, damage to the agricultural sector by Hurricane Ivan (2004) totalled almost US$40 million. Damage to the nutmeg sub-sector concern for 30,720 ‘employees’ (OECS 2004). Spice industry set back 10 years. • An intense drought event in 1999-2000 caused US$6 million in crop losses Jamaica (Jamaica Information Service, Ministry of Finance 2007). • Coral reef deterioration, fish kills

4. Projected Climate Change • 90% chance that temperatures will rise across the Caribbean - increase in the annual temperature could be in the range of 2 to 2.5oC • likely (66%) that sea levels will rise in the Caribbean during this century • rainfall is likely (66%) to decrease in the Greater Antilles (particularly in June & August) – however, projected decrease in annual precipitation in the region of 5 to 15% in Caribbean basin WITH INCREASING VARIABILITY CRITICAL THRESHOLDS LIKELY TO BE EXCEEDED MORE OFTEN

5. The Caribbean Region highlighting CARICOM members

6. Key Caribbean climate and other GEC issues, food security policy priorities and development goals Caribbean • Key Policy Goals • Increasing food self-sufficiency • Improving trade policies & competitiveness • Implementing CSM and the CSME • Issues • Increasing extreme events • Changes in sea currents & level • ‘Ridge-to-Reef’ impacts of land degradation Example Stakeholders National ag, env & tourism ministries Regional IGOs (CARICOM, IICA) Regional research bodies (FAO, CCCCC, CIMH, UWI, CARDI)

7. Analysing Food Systems in context of drivers and feedbacks Environmental feedbacks e.g. water quality, GHGs GEC DRIVERS Changes in: Land cover & soils, Atmospheric Comp., Climate variability & means, Water availability & quality, Nutrient availability & cycling, Biodiversity, Sea currents & salinity, Sea level Food System ACTIVITIES Producing Processing & Packaging Distributing & Retailing Consuming ‘Natural’ DRIVERS e.g. Volcanoes Solar cycles Food System OUTCOMES Contributing to: Food Security, Environmental Security, and other Societal Interests DRIVERS’Interactions Socioeconomic DRIVERS Changes in: Demographics, Economics, Socio-political context, Cultural context Science & Technology Food Utilisation Food Access Social Welfare Food Availability EnvironCapital Socioeconomic feedbacks e.g. livelihoods, social cohesion Source: Zurek, M. & Ericksen, P. (2006) A Conceptual Framework Describing Food System – GEC Interactions. In prep.

8. GECAFS Prototype Caribbean Scenarios Funded by ICSU / UNESCO / US State Dept 3 main starting issues Extreme weather, climate, sea level Land use esp. “ridge-to-reef” Regional governance & CSME Preferential trade

9. GECAFS Prototype Caribbean Scenarios Who was involved? • ~30 people; 2 workshops & writing tasks over 6 months • Social and natural scientists from regional research institutions (e.g. UWI, CIMH) • Social and natural scientists from national research institutions (e.g. universities, national labs) • Policy-makers from regional agencies (e.g. CARICOM, IICA) • Policy-makers from national agencies (e.g. Min of Ag) • International agencies (e.g. FAO, UNEP) • GECAFS scenarios group

10. Global Orchestration Order from Strength TechnoGarden Adapting Mosaic GECAFS Prototype Caribbean ScenariosBased on the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment World Development Globalization Regionalization Proactive Reactive Environmental Management Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (2006)

11. Main Climate-related Drivers Same across the GECAFS Caribbean Scenarios Source: GECAFS (2006) Prototype Scenarios for the Caribbean. GECAFS Rpt 2.

12. Main Socioeconomic Drivers Differ across the GECAFS Caribbean Scenarios • Population growth & fertility rates • Life expectancy & Age structure • Migration (rural-urban) • Economic Growth • Equity • Financial flows • Unemployment • Regional Cooperation • Investments into agri science & technology • Investments into human capital • Dominant agricultural food policy • Subsidies • Import / Export Regulations & Focus • (Relative) Price of food • Transport cost • Tourism • Kind of Governance, Political Agendas • Emergence of new markets (India, China; Green markets) • US - Cuba Situation • Security situation Source: GECAFS (2006) Prototype Scenarios for the Caribbean. GECAFS Rpt 2.

13. Other GEC Drivers Consequently differ across the GECAFS Caribbean Scenarios (example for land use change) Source: GECAFS (2006) Prototype Scenarios for the Caribbean. GECAFS Rpt 2.

14. Food Security FOOD UTILISATION FOOD ACCESS • Nutritional Value • Social Value • Food Safety • Affordability • Allocation • Preference FOOD AVAILABILITY • Production • Distribution • Exchange Analysis of Food Security Outcomes Components & Elements (reminder)

15. Assessing Food Systems OUTCOMES [1] Developments described per scenario for each Food Security element (example for Food Access component) Source: GECAFS (2006) Prototype Scenarios for the Caribbean. GECAFS Rpt 2.

16. Assessing Food Systems OUTCOMES [2] Developments systematically assessed per scenario for each Food Security element (example for Food Access component) Source: GECAFS (2006) Prototype Scenarios for the Caribbean. GECAFS Rpt 2.

17. Global Caribbean Caribbean OrderFrom Strength CaribbeanTechnoGarden CaribbeanAdapting Mosaic Assessing Food Systems OUTCOMES [3] Assessments plotted based on FS concepts per scenario Production ++ Food Safety Distribution Increase + 0 _ Social Value Inter-RegionalExchange Decrease _ _ Intra-Caribbean Exchange NutritionalValue Preference Affordability Allocation Source: GECAFS (2006) Prototype Scenarios for the Caribbean. GECAFS Rpt 2.

18. GECAFS Scenarios Approach key outcomes • raises awareness of GEC with policy-makers and other stakeholders • raises awareness of policy issues and process with GEC researchers • integrates information from different fields to explore possible developments • systematically structures debate relating to environmental issues and food security • builds science-policy regional “team” based on shared vision, understanding and trust • tests downscaling methods • will be extended to other regions under GEF proposal (in prep)