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Corps of Engineers Omaha District Forecast Update

Corps of Engineers Omaha District Forecast Update. Brian Twombly Kellie Bergman January 2010 Jay Lincoln. Volumetric Water Supply Forecasts. Bureau of Reclamation projects Joint-use/flood control storage needed for expected runoff volume Clark Canyon Dam, MT 50,000 acre-feet

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Corps of Engineers Omaha District Forecast Update

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  1. Corps of Engineers Omaha District Forecast Update Brian Twombly Kellie Bergman January 2010 Jay Lincoln

  2. Volumetric Water Supply Forecasts • Bureau of Reclamation projects • Joint-use/flood control storage needed for expected runoff volume • Clark Canyon Dam, MT 50,000 acre-feet • Canyon Ferry Dam, MT 795,000 acre-feet • Tiber Dam, MT 260,000 acre-feet • Boysen Dam, WY 145,000 acre-feet • Yellowtail Dam, WY 240,000 acre-feet • Informational purposes only • Glendo Dam, WY

  3. Multi-Variable Linear Regression • Computing April to July “natural” inflow volume to the project. • Independent predictor variables: • Antecedent conditions • The basin average snow water equivalent (SWE) • Spring-season precipitation

  4. Example of Volumetric Water Supply Forecast (Canyon Ferry Reservoir) IF = 2.023(ANTON) + 0.177(SAPR) + 0.265(PREAMJ) - 3.081 • IF = The forecasted natural April through July inflow volume to Canyon Ferry in MAF. • ANTON = The natural October and November antecedent runoff volume in MAF. • SAPR = The average April 1 snowpack water content in inches of 9 snotel stations. • PREAMJ = The average monthly precipitation in inches for 9 stations for each month of April, May, and June.

  5. Forecast Improves as Season Progresses and More Data becomes Available

  6. Model Development Using ARRA Funding • Modeling is overseen by the USACE Hydrologic Engineering Center • West Consultants in San Diego, CA • Modeling three different locations: • Chatfield Dam in Denver, CO • Fall River near Hot Springs, SD • James River upstream of Lamoure, ND

  7. Fall River Basin, HEC-HMS models.

  8. Fall River Basin, HEC-HMS models for the Cold Brook and Cottonwood Reservoir Basins.

  9. James River Basin, HEC-HMS models for the Jamestown Reservoir Basin and downstream of the reservoir to Lamoure, ND.

  10. Chatfield Dam, HEC-HMS models for the Chatfield Basin and downstream to the Henderson Stream Gage in the South Platte River and HEC ResSim model for Chatfield Reservoir.

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