MPAT TE-11 Scenario Brief

1. MPAT TE-11 Scenario Brief 22 January 2007 UNCLASSIFIED

2. Conflict Region –Pacifica Subcontinent • Pacifica Subcontinent: 2,300,000 sq km • N-S length: 3,100 km; E-W width: 1,400 km • 1,400 km SW of Japan; 2,200 km W of Hawaii

3. A History of Strife –Six Political Entities • Republic of Arcadia • Dominion of Kuhistan • Republic of Tierra del Oro • Kingdom of Sonora • Republic of Free Mojave • New country formed out of Kuhistan, Sonora, Tierra del Oro • Island of Isla del Sol • Colonial dependency of Iberia

5. Early History • Pacifica originally settled by peoples from Northeast Asia, the South Pacific, & finally northern Europe in 8th & 9th century. • Iberian (Europe) explorer “discovers” Pacifica in 1503, and is followed by other European powers who colonize various parts of Pacifica. • African settlers arrive in 18th and 19th century. • By late 19th century, present countries except Mojave are in existence. • Countries reflect multi-ethnic, multi-religious composition of original settlers and later waves of immigrants.

6. Early History (con’t.) • Ethnic strife and other issues result in formation of Free Mojave in 2004, carved out of Kuhistan, Sonora and Tierra del Oro. • Sonora also looses a significant portion of its army which defects to help form the new country. • Sonora and Tierra del Ora have engaged in conflict in 2005 and 2006, necessitating UN sanctioned intervention. • Arcadia suffered major internal disturbances requiring UN sanctioned intervention.

7. Kuhistan – Geography • Complex mountain ranges (Cascades, Rockies) and major river systems (Columbia, Snake) in north; rivers occasionally flood during spring • Basin and range country in south • Temperatures from -30 C in winter to 38 C in summer • Annual precipitation ranges from less than 20 cm to more than 50 cm • Kuhistan is generally arid; water is a major political and social issue

8. Kuhistan – Major Cities Spokane Salt Lake City Boise Salt Lake City Provo Cedar City St. George

9. Kuhistan - Government • Federated dominion • Head of State is Albion monarch-Queen Charlotte • Parliamentary democracy • Eight provinces • Capital: Boise • Judicial • Municipal courts (petty criminal offenses, civil suits) • Courts of first jurisdiction at provincial level; Court of Appeals in Boise; final appeals referred to Albion House of Lords • Police • Local • Provincial • National (under Ministry of Justice and for criminal matters crossing provincial boundaries.

10. Kuhistan-Military • General comments • Varied weapons and equipment sources • Poor condition due to economy, lack of continued Soviet and Russian support and the current conflict • Training status described as “fair” • Factions based on ethnic background exist, but no overt tendencies towards disloyalty • Army’s Missile Command, Air Force and Navy fiercely loyal and nationalistic

11. Kuhistan – Military • Military Force Structure • Army (75,000) • Three geographical commands (North, Central, South) • Division-sized unit is core of each command • Centralized Special Forces and Missile Forces Command • Navy (10,000) • Three geographical commands based in larger cities • Essentially coastal patrol capabilities • Air Force (10,000) • Fighter, Home Defence, Air Transport Command • Main missions are ground support and transportation • Force details provided in Force Structure handout

12. Kuhistan – Population • Population: 6,834,000 (68% urban) • Spokane 196,305 • Boise (capital) 189,847 • Salt Lake City 181,266 • Provo 105,170 • Ethnic Breakdown: • European 47% • Mixed European/Norlander 27 • Mestizo 11 • Norlander 6 • African 4 • Other 5

13. Kuhistan – Religion/Language • Religion • Christian (Protestant) 47% • New Zionist 23 • Christian (Catholic) 22 • Muslim 3 • Other 5 • Language • English (official language), primarily • Spanish, German, various indigenous languages

14. Kuhistan – Economy • Economy • GNP: US $45 billion / US $6,600 per capita • Agriculture (heavy reliance on irrigation) • Fruits, wheat, potatoes, cattle, poultry • Timber, wood products, paper • Coal • Mining (gold, silver, lead) • Steel (small) • Chemical industry (fledging and with Russian assistance) • Nuclear power generation (Russian assistance) • Economy is essentially stagnant

15. Kuhistan – Transportation/Infrastructure • Railroads: connect major cities: Salt Lake City, Pocatello, Boise, Spokane • Highways: extensive inter-province system linking major cities and cities in rest of Pacifica • Waterways: Columbia and lower Willamette accommodate ocean-going vessels • Commercial Air Facilities: Salt Lake City is main hub. Spokane and Boise have major facilities • Ports: Major ports include Idaho Falls, Pocatello, Salt Lake City

16. Kuhistan – Post-World War II • Received significant aid and assistance from Soviet Union • Member of the “Non-aligned Movement” during Cold War • Soviet Union trained, equipped military and police, financed economic growth • Collapse of Soviet Union in 1991 and Asian Financial crisis had huge negative impact on Kuhistan economy. • Kuhistan economy deteriorated: • Major job losses, homelessness, shanty towns • Increased ethnic tensions, especially against Mestizo population • Make shift Internally Displaced Persons camps

17. Kuhistan – Post-World War II • Russia attempts to regain former Soviet Union influence in Pacifica: • Provides technical and financial support for development of Kuhistan nuclear energy capability • Provides support for chemical industry development • Rise of dissident groups: • “Mestizo Political Action-Kuhistan” (MPAK), and umbrella organization for Mestizo groups-advocate for better education, “affirmative action” in hiring, and other economic support measures. • MPAK becomes “radicalized”, demonstrations and unrest increase, as there is little progress for the Mestizo community • “Kuhistan Freedom Corps” (KFC) forms from radical elements of MPAK, is a terrorist organization which engages both police and military forces, and has ties to other similar organizations in Pacifica.

18. Sonora – Geography • Terrain dominated by Sonora Desert • Average annual precipitation 30 cm • Temperatures from 10 C in winter to 38 C in summer • Sonora is generally arid; water is a major political and social issue

19. Sonora – Major Cities Albuquerque Phoenix TUCSON El Paso

20. Sonora – Government • Constitutional monarchy • Head of State is the King • Two provinces • Chief of Government is Prime Minister, appointed by the King • Provincial governors are appointed by the King • Provinces further divided into districts • Capital: Phoenix • Judicial • Each district has courts of first jurisdiction • Appeals court at provincial level • National supreme court in Phoenix • Police • National police force under Ministry of Interior • Organized along military lines (rank structure) • Province, district and municipal levels of command

21. Sonora – Military • General comments • Sonora has the largest military in Pacifica • Most equipment and weapons systems are from the US and Europe • Equipment is in generally fair condition due to the recent conflict with Tierra del Oro • Training status described as “fair” • Ethnic and political distrust has eroded the professionalism of the military • The Army has a disproportionate percentage of Mestizos who are dissatisfied with the ruling elite • Former First Corps (one third of ground forces) defected and became the core of the newly independent Free Mojave (largely Mestizo country) • Loyalty of virtually all generals not related or well connected to the royal family is suspect

22. Sonora – Military • Military Force Structure • Army (100,000) • Three corps form the bulk of the Army forces • Division-sized unit is core of each command • Centralized Special Operations, Coastal Defense and Missile Commands • Navy (25,000) • Three geographical commands based in larger cities • Largely coastal patrol capabilities with minimal blue water capabilities • Air Force (35,000) • Fighter, Air Defence, Air Transportation Command • Force details provided in Force Structure handout

23. Sonora – Population • Population: 7,453,000 (63% urban) • Phoenix (capital) 1,371,960 • El Paso 577,415 • Tucson 503,151 • Albuquerque 463,874 • Ethnic Breakdown: • Mestizo 37 • Creole 31 • Mohajerani 16 • Lahui Kanaka 12 • Other 4

24. Sonora – Religion/Language • Religion • Christian (Catholic) 69% • Muslim 16 • Indigenous 12 • Other 3 • Language • French (official language and spoken by the elite) • Spanish (spoken by majority)

25. Sonora – Economy • Economy • GNP US $78 billion / US $11,100 per capita • Industrial production • Electronics, computers, consumer durables (appliances) • Mining • Gas, Oil, Coal production • Agriculture (constrained by limited water resources) • Cotton, citrus fruits, cattle, sheep • Considerable resources and potential for rapid growth

26. Sonora –Transportation / Infrastructure • Transportation and Infrastructure • Railroads: connect major cities: Phoenix, Tucson, El Paso, Albuquerque • Highways: extensive inter-province system linking major cities and cities in rest of Pacifica • Waterways: no navigable rivers • Commercial Air Facilities: Phoenix is main hub. Tucson, Albuquerque and El Paso have major facilities • Ports: Major ports include Albuquerque, El Paso and Tucson

27. Sonora – Post-World War II • Economy in total shambles after WW II (Sonora supported Axis powers and was devastated by Allies) • Massive aid provided by U.S. and other European countries revitalized the economy • Mining, agriculture revitalized • Industrial sector (destroyed in WW II) rebuilt • U.S. provides weapons and training for armed forces, to counter growing post WW II influence in Pacifica • Oil industry increased dramatically: • Discovery of large untapped reserve in northern section of country bordering Kuhistan • BUSHOCO, Sonora national oil company, commences massive exploitation of reserves

28. Road to Crisis MPAT TE-11 Scenario

29. Road to Crisis 2004 • Kuhistan economy in bad shape. International aid agencies provide some support • Continued perceived prejudice against Mestizos in jobs and housing • MPAK activities increase • Refugees (Ethnic European/Norlanders) flee new state of Free Mojave • Refugee camps established in St. George and Cedar City • Clashes increase between ethnic Europeans, Mestizos • Shanty towns spring up in Boise, Salt Lake City, Spokane

30. Road to Crisis 2005 (January-March) • Sonora extends productive oil fields closer to Kuhistan; Kuhistan claims Sonora is “slant drilling” into its reserves • Kuhistan accelerates nuclearization efforts • Completes 1,000 MW light water reactor (with Russian assistance) 10 km south of Salt Lake City • International Atomic energy Agency (IAEA) finds no irregularities • Sonora claims Kuhistan nuclear program is cover for nuclear weapons development; protests to UN Security Council • MPAK and KFC link with other groups in Free Mojave and agitate to annex Mestizo portion of Kuhistan to Free Mojave

31. Road to Crisis 2005 (April-June) • Mestizo guerillas in Kuhistan and Sonora bomb public buildings, shopping malls. MPAK denies responsibility • Kuhistan military tasked to provide law and order support • Boise and Spokane Rivers overflow • Thousands homeless • IDP camps established in Boise and Nampa • IDP camp established in Spokane in large park near river and close to employment opportunities

32. Road to Crisis 2005 (July-September) • Kuhistan moves forces closer to Sonoran border, claiming to push Sonora guerillas back to Sonora • Sonora counters, moves forces to border • Sonora accuses Kuhistan of developing weapons in its phosgene plant; Kuhistan denies charges, claims phosgene is important compound for its growing chemical industry • Tensions between Kuhistan and Sonora increase • Cross-border clashes between Kuihistan and Sonora forces • Cedar City, St. George (Kuhistan) suffer damage • Oil fields in Sonora suffer damage • UN agency staff relocate to Salt Lake City and Boise • International aid severely curtailed • UN Secretary General implores both countries pull back forces from border • UN Security Council passes UNSC Resolution 1492 (6 September 2005) condemning actions of both countries • Kuhistan and Sonora pull back forces at least 5 km from borders, but maintain sizable forces nearby.

33. Road to Crisis 2005 (October-December) • Spokane and Boise establish additional IDP camps for homeless caused by earlier flood. • IDP camp established outside of Salt Lake City to accommodate economically disadvantaged and citizens who earlier fled from the border clashes • Kuhistan begins installing plutonium processing facility south of existing reactor • Sonora lodges strong protest in UN • Kuhistan claims it wants to minimize nuclear waste

34. Road to Crisis 2006 (January-March) • Kuhistan economy continues to struggle • Sonora oil fields sabotaged • Sonora claims Kuhistan plans to destroy Sonora oil fields and use nuclear weapons 2006 (April) • Kuhistan Army deserter calls press conference in Seattle, Arcadia and claims: • He was part of security detail for secret underground uranium enrichment facility in Salt Lake City • Underground location chosen to prevent Sonora bombing • Centrifuges acquired form Dr A.Q. Khan’s illegal weapons network • Deserter offers convincing proof of facility • IAEA demands to inspect alleged location; Kuhistan refuses

35. Road to Crisis 2006 (May) • Sonora claims Kuhistan intends to use phosgene chemicals against its populace • 15 May: Sonora cites concerns about oil field incursions, use of phosgene chemicals, and nuclear threat and takes pre-emptive action against Kuhistan • Sonora forces invade Kuhistan • Main thrust north-northeast along Highway 15 • Supporting thrust along coast • Navy initiates supporting attack against Salt Lake City • UN staff, international relief agencies relocated from Salt Lake City to Boise or returned home • Salt Lake City IDP camp receives heavy influx of IDPs fleeing fighting in southern Kuhistan

36. Road to Crisis 2006 (July) • After 2 ½ months of heavy fighting, both countries suffer heavy losses and damage • St. George, Cedar City, Provo suffer major infrastructure damage • Sonora ground forces push to within 15 km of Provo • Sonora Navy effort is ineffectual; Navy suffers major losses • Kuhistan’s response to invasion includes massive missile attacks against major cities and ports in Sonora • Segments of international community condemn missile attacks as excessive and needlessly targeting civilian population centers • Humanitarian crisis in Kuhistan worsens as international aid agencies continue their pullout 2006 (August) • UNSC Resolution 1512 (8 August 2006): • Condemns both parties • Demands cessation of hostilities • Demands Sonora pull back its forces from Kuhistan • Demands that Kuhistan cease its missile attacks

37. Road to Crisis 2006 (September) • Fighting continues • International efforts to settle conflict intensify • Singapore provides leadership; conflict settlement important to its economic and security interests in region • Kuhistan, Sonora unwilling to comply with UN resolutions, however: • Kuhistan limits missile attacks to areas occupied by Sonora forces (including St. George and Cedar City) • Sonora adopts aggressive “defensive posture” in Sonoran-occupied Kuhistani territory 2006 (October) • Intense international efforts continue • International community threaten sanctions, withholding aid • Kuhistan agrees to cease hostile activities but only if a robust multinational force (MNF) pushes Sonora forces out of Kuhistan territory

38. Road to Crisis 2006 (October-continued) • Sonora agrees to cease hostile activities and begin withdrawal but only if the MNF neutralizes the missile attacks and protects Sonoran oil fields • UN Security Council passes UNSC Resolution 1569 (10 October 2006) calling for a strong MNF to separate the belligerents, support international efforts to restore peace to the region and help rebuild Kuhistan. MNF mandate includes: • Separate Kuhistan and Sonora forces • Ensure Sonora forces leave Kuhistan • Prevent further missile attacks by Kuhistan • Enforce border integrity • Establish security in the country • Support HA efforts • Support other components of the UN mandate • Transition to a follow on PKF six months after deployment of MNF

39. Road to Crisis 2006 (November-December) • Singapore starts to build the MNF 2007 (January) • Kuhistan and Sonora have basically ceased major hostile actions, but sporadic fighting continues • Banditry and guerrilla operations continue to plague Kuhistan • Humanitarian aid agencies start sending assessment teams back to Kuhistan • SAF Warning Order issued 2007 (February) • Refugee and IDP camps are as follows:

40. Road to Crisis 2007 (February) • Refugee and IDP camps are as follows: • MNF Planners deploy to Singapore