Progress on Science Activities in 2007 Climate Forecast Products Team

1. Progress on Science Activities in 2007Climate Forecast Products Team Edward O’Lenic Chief, Operations Branch, CPC • CPC Products List • RISA POC Projects, Personnel, and Products • NDFD • Question CPC/POC Need to Answer • Proposed Products CTB-SAB meeting August 28, 2007

2. RISA-POC Activities • CTB has engaged the Climate Applications Community to identify user needs, and to accelerate the transition of relevant research into CPC products. • CPC is developing an inventory of its current operational products and their future direction. • CTB/CPC RISA POCs are developing lists of proposed future products, and services.

3. Inventory of CPC Official Products3 MONTH OUTLOOK

4. Inventory of CPC Official Products Hurricane Outlooks

5. Inventory of CPC Official Products1 MONTH OUTLOOKS

6. Inventory of CPC Official Products 6-10/8-14 Day Outlooks

7. Inventory of CPC Official Products Hazards Assessments / Heat Index

8. Inventory of CPC Official Products Diagnostic Discussions & Bulletins

9. RISAs, POCs, Activities

10. NDFD: Product Delivery Super Highway • NDFD is the National Digital Forecast Database. It was developed in response to a National Research Council (NRC) recommendation (2003) that NWS make its data and products available in digital form, using widely recognized standards. The NDFD Concept of Operations has three main precepts: • 1. The NWS Weather Forecast Office forecaster is the local expert/decision-maker. • 2. Optimization of information flow between NWS and partners/customers. • 3. Collaboration among NWS components in building the NDFD. • 4. Formats available: FTP, http, XML, GML NDFD vastly improves the accessibility of NWS products to the user community.

11. NDFD Products Make Life Easier • 1. GENERALIZED R&D (O2R) • 2. O2R: DEVELOP PRODUCTS • 3. R2O: OPERATIONALIZE R&D • PRODUCTS INTO NDFD • 4. PRODUCT DELIVERY – VIA • NDFD XML DOCUMENTS • * USERS DIY, OR • ENGAGE RISA/PRIVATE • ENTERPRISE • 5. O2R: USER FEEDBACK • LEADS TO NEW R&D • REQUIREMENTS 2 R2O NCEP is uniquely positioned to provide an operational infra-structure for the transition processes N C E P 1 R&D Community O2R 3 CTB CPC EMC CFS OPERATIONS NDFD 4 R2O User Community 5

12. Questions CPC/POC should answer • 1. How do we make the O2R process reliable and formal? • 2. What is the metric for “accelerate transition of research into operations”? • 3. NDFD applies to FORECAST products. What about other products? • 4. What other variables should be predicted? Should we make circulation forecasts? Should ENSO SST be included? Should the forecast be divided between the inter-annual and trend components (for the 3-month outlooks)? • 5. What other questions should we be asking?

13. Proposed New Products • Climatological distribution information, including mean and standard deviation, probability of certain thresholds, limits associated with the 50% and 95% confidence intervals of the forecast and climatology (on NDFD). • Prototype forecasts for weeks 3, 4 using consolidation of forecasts from CFS, LIM and other available models with skill histories. • New ability to assess week 2, 3, 4 extreme event hazards for use in U.S. Hazards and Global Hazards Assessments • Experimental probabilistic seasonal drought outlook • Experimental implementation of probabilistic precipitation forecast tool in the U.S. Hazards Assessment • Interactive crop yield, drought mitigation, water management and cost/loss tools.

14. End