Status Update 2 May 2007 NUOPC Tiger Team Steven Payne Fred Toepfer Mark Surmeier

1. National Unified Operational Prediction Capability (NUOPC)* * * Forming a National Global Numerical Prediction System Status Update 2 May 2007 NUOPC Tiger Team Steven Payne Fred Toepfer Mark Surmeier

2. Outline • Purpose • NUOPC Vision • Background • Next Steps

3. Purpose Provide COPC a status report of NUOPC progress and direction

4. NUOPC Vision (2015) • A National System with a Tri-Agency commitment to address common requirements • Multi-component system with interoperable components built upon common standards and a framework such as ESMF • Managed ensemble diversity to quantify and bound forecast uncertainty • Replaces today’s deterministic forecast with a stochastic forecast • Quantifies uncertainty of significant forecasts such as storm track and intensity, severe weather, turbulence, icing, and other priority phenomena affecting tactical decision aids • Ensemble products used to drive high-resolution regional/local predictions and other down stream models • Opportunity to establish a national research agenda to accelerate development and transition

5. NUOPC Component System Application Driver ESMF Superstructure (component definitions,communications, etc Dynamics Physics (1,2) Analysis (1,2,3) -------------- Coupler Other Multi-component ensemble Forecast + Systems Stochastic forcing ESMF Utilities Post processor & Product Generator Verification (clock, error handling, etc) Resolution change - Focused R & D Developmental Test Center Vision: A National Global Modeling System

6. Background • February, 2006: Initial tri-agency workshop to compare mission, resources, and budget—look for opportunity • May, 2006: NUOPC concept review directed by the Oceanographer of the Navy, Administrator of NOAA, and the Director of Air Force Weather • January, 2007: Decision to further refine option for coordinated research and development with coordinated transition and operations; Assigned Executive Steering Group • February, 2007: Workshop to break out tasks/assignments • March, 2007: Stakeholder Meeting—introduced weather community leaders to NUOPC; asked for their ideas • March, 2007: Met with Executive Steering Group (ESG) • April, 2007: Workshop to analyze task results and prepare for Jun 07 briefing to Tri-Agency Principals

7. Background • Operational Requirements • Improved tropical cyclone prediction • Increased reliability – no large track or intensity errors – no unnecessary evacuations/sorties • Accurate five day track and intensity predictions for evacuation/avoidance • Improved forcing for secondary effects – dust, ozone, aerosols, fog, cloud cover, soil saturation, ocean/wave forcing, biologics, atmospheric chemistry • Precise boundary layer processes for environmental quality, disaster mitigation, EM propagation • Reliable assessment of rare or extreme event probabilities • Reliable probabilistic values for complex decision making and mission planning • Interoperable software architectures for accelerated development and cost reduction • More effective and efficient use of resources

8. BackgroundThe NUOPC Goal: A National Cooperative Effort NUOPC NASA AIR FORCE NOAA OAR/ GFDL NSF NAVY R&D COMMUNITY ONR/ NRL

9. Workshop 2 Workshop 3 Tri - Agency + + Workshop 1 + R&D Management Software Operations Transition & Finances Standards Information Gathering + + COSTS BENEFITS RISKS Analysis and Recommendation ALTERNATIVE ALTERNATIVE ALTERNATIVE 1 2 3 Future Steps Risk Memorandum Implementation + + Mitigation Of Plan & Plan Agreement Milestones BackgroundAnalysis of Alternatives Process

10. BackgroundCoordinated Research & Development with Coordinated Transition and Operations • Functional Attributes • Coordinated internal development among tri-agencies • Coordinated technology development for future systems • Interoperable infrastructure (coding standards, file names, interfaces, etc.) • Interoperable model architecture for GNWP (e.g. ESMF) to allow for exchange of technology at the component level • Facilitated entrainment of the external development community • A developmental test structure with available tools, support and access to data, data assimilation and developmental models (e.g. DTC or VTC or expanded visiting scientist program) • Interoperable architecture based on common requirements. • Prioritization of development requirements • Coordinated acquisition investment • Standardized transition process • Common ensemble system with managed diversity • Coordinated operations for ensemble prediction, potentially including unified ensemble post processing with a single promulgating agency • Assumes working within a unified system - unified technology without unifying the use of technology

11. BackgroundCoordinated Research & Development with Coordinated Transition and Operations • Management Attributes (Establishes a Project Manager with authority to): • Execute Tri-Agency Memorandum of Agreement • Lead the establishment of a set of common requirements for GNWP • Coordinate the development agenda to match common requirements • Monitor the results of development and success in meeting requirements • Establish, maintain, evolve and monitor common infrastructure standards • Coordinate a common format for data and GNWP products • Establish and facilitate management and technology oversight committees • Coordinate management goals and technology reviews • Establish metrics/tools for development testing • Coordinate the establishment of facilities and support to implement external community participation in development • Coordinate development of capabilities to share data, products, system components, etc. • Manage “common requirements” for prioritized applied technology investment • Coordinate hardware acquisition as appropriate • Coordinate standardized transition process • Manage model architecture to common requirements/design diversity • Coordinate formal change control process/configuration management • Establish and monitor operationally interchangeable I/O, infrastructure, software • Coordinate operational ensemble post processing • Establish and evolve standardized model performance metrics and evaluation tools

12. BackgroundComparison to NOPC and COPC • Management Attributes: NUOPC Notional OFCM NOPC • NUOPC designed to manage operations and technology transition—similar design as NEXRAD • NOPC/COPC promote sharing of information--voluntary

13. BackgroundWG Actions & Assignments • Common standards, infrastructure and architecture (POC: Mark Iredell (NWS), Hodur (NRL), Howland (AFW)) • Recommend ESMF and identify required enhancements? • What constitutes interoperable code/software conversion requirements • How deep into code do we carry commonality (identify implications of varying levels of implementation depth)? • Coordinated R&D/Common requirements (Ferek (ONR), Yoe (NOAA), Gall (AFW)) • DTC charter • Stakeholders outside the operational agencies • Coordinated transition process from research to ops (Payne (CNMOC), Toepfer (NCEP), Surmeier (AFW) • Manage ensemble diversity (development) (Toth (NCEP), Hansen (NRL), Nobis (AFWA) • Management structure Who? Where? Responsibility? Accountability? Authority? What are the criteria for performance and evaluation? (Curry (N84), Leute (AFW), Toepfer/Lord (NCEP) • Management funding • Agreement mechanism • What is the revisit frequency and criteria for discontinuing • OPS CONOPS at end state (Clancy (FNMOC), Kyger (NOAA), Howland (AFW)) • Information security • Computational resources • Configuration management • Common post processing including communications • Common Performance Metrics • How to manage a common ensemble (ops)

14. Next Steps • Detailed implementation planning • Assessing feasibility studies • Developing detailed cost analysis • Assessing Risks • Evaluating cooperative agreements (MOA) • Refining Plan of Action, Milestones, and Budgetary Guidance • Preparing for May 07 update to ESG • Preparing for Jun 07 briefing to Tri-Agency Principals

15. Next Steps • Staff implementation plan, budget agreement and MOA through the Tri-Agencies prior to decision brief • Develop & staff decision brief • If approved, obtain signed MOA • If approved, execute the plan

16. Questions?

17. Backup background

18. BackgroundCoordinated Research & Development with Coordinated Transition and Operations • Funding Attributes • Coordinated resources for: • Infrastructure management • Project coordinator • Committees and meetings • Metrics, tools, developmental test center or other support for outside development community • Common (not joint) budget for NWP acquisition • Common or joint budget for management • Could include common budget for ensemble post processing

19. BackgroundCoordinated Research & Development with Coordinated Transition and Operations • Management Attributes • Establishes a Project Manager with authority to: • Execute Tri-Agency Memorandum of Agreement • Lead the establishment of a set of common requirements for GNWP • Coordinate the development agenda to match common requirements • Monitor the results of development and success in meeting requirements • Establish, maintain, evolve and monitor common infrastructure standards • Coordinate a common format for data and GNWP products • Establish and facilitate management and technology oversight committees • Coordinate management goals and technology reviews • Establish metrics/tools for development testing • Coordinate the establishment of facilities and support to implement external community participation in development • Coordinate development of capabilities to share data, products, system components, etc. • Manage “common requirements” for prioritized applied technology investment • Coordinate hardware acquisition as appropriate • Coordinate standardized transition process • Manage model architecture to common requirements/design diversity • Coordinate formal change control process/configuration management • Establish and monitor operationally interchangeable I/O, infrastructure, software • Coordinate operational ensemble post processing • Establish and evolve standardized model performance metrics and evaluation tools