National Unified Operational Prediction Capability (NUOPC) Status Brief for ESMF Steven Payne

1. NUOPC National Unified Operational Prediction Capability (NUOPC)Status Brief for ESMFSteven Payne December 17, 2008

2. Potential Benefits • A National System to focus on National Needs • Accelerated improvement of a National Weather Operational Prediction Capability • Forecast Accuracy • Quantified Forecast uncertainty • Improved agency capability to drive downstream applications • Increased efficiency through use of shared resources • Better operational backup • Enhanced research coordination • Response to GAO, FCMSSR and DoD IG recommendations 2

3. NUOPC Update • 2005 - Tri-Agency established a goal of complementary operational NWP • 2006 - Reviewed opportunities and alternatives; selected coordinated Global NWP as initial focus area • 2007 - Developed initial concepts and project plan for NUOPC • Dialog with Stakeholders March, 2007 • Approved by Tri-Agency principals group (DOC US for Ocean and Atmospheres, AF/A30-W, and Navy N84) • 2008 – Appointed Project Manager • Executing NUOPC Phase I • ESG approved interim committee chairmen • Second dialog with Stakeholders April, 2008 • Initiated interim committee process May, 2008

4. NUOPC Implementation Schedule FY2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Prelim Phase I Implementation Phase II Beta Test Phase III IOC-2 FOC IOC-1 MGMT REPORTG MOA Quarterly Updates to Principals STAFFING TT PM, TEMPS Full Staff CODE CONV. INIT.STANDARDS SOFTWARE CONVERSION MAINTAIN OPERATIONS CONOPS, COMMS, IA PROTOTYPE OPS ENS OPS TEST FOC STANDARDS PARTICIPATION OUTREACH Common Rqmts, Rsch Agenda DTC/VTC DECISION BRIEF TO PRINCIPALS EXTERNAL RESEARCH WORKSHOP

5. NUOPC Management Structure Air Force (A3O-W) Dr. Lewis Navy (CNO N84) RADM Gove NOAA (Administrator) VADM Lautenbacher Executive Steering Group Col Ralph Stoffler (AFW) & Col John Murphy (AFWA) Mr. Robert Winokur (N84) & RDML David Titley (CNMOC) Dr. Jack Hayes (NWS) & Dr. Richard Spinrad (OAR) Executive Secretary CAPT Michael Angove LCDR Kurt Zegowitz NUOPC Project Manager - Fred Toepfer Deputy Project Manager - TBD Agency Liaisons John Zapotocny Brian Moore Joel Cline Jeremy Potter Kim Curry Steve Payne NUOPC Staff Paul Demmert / Fran Bieker / William O’Connor / Scott Sandgathe / Chuck McKinley Unified Ensemble Operations Mike Clancy Interim Committees Common Model Architecture Scott Sandgathe Technology Transition Process Marc Hidalgo

6. Expectations • NUOPC is an agreement between the three operational production facilities to accelerate technological advances and improve efficiency through collaboration. • Every attempt should be made to avoid significant disruption of the operational centers or to impede developmental headway. • A major objective of NUOPC is to entrain the broader research and development community into supporting research critical to the success of the operational centers.

7. Three designated committees: Common Model Architecture Committee Technical Transition Process Committee Unified Ensemble Operations Committee Potential additional panels include Technical Transition and Information Assurance. Interim Committees will be split into attending members and review members in order to reduce travel and impact on members and also address FACA concerns. Interim committees only operate during Phase I. Permanent committees chartered in Phase II to maintain, evolve standards, monitor compliance. Interim Committees

8. Committee Membership • Chairman from NUOPC staff or operational center • Primary input from operational centers, agency R&D activities • Broad community participation via coordination and review membership • Working level knowledge but able to represent constituency • NUOPC staff responsible for meeting minutes, draft reports, schedule

9. Interim Committee Membership

10. Common Model Architecture Committee Task: Develop common architecture (ESMF) and coding standards as necessary to accelerate transition of research and avoid unnecessary duplication of effort. • Agree to ESMF architecture, degree and detail of implementation. • Agree to additional software or hardware standards required to promote interoperability. • Minimize disruption to operational centers and existing development efforts. • Estimate cost and time to implement.

11. Committee Issues - CMA Standard Model Architecture - ESMF How deep to implement? How to resolve & align present NRL/EMC approaches NASA MAPL and European OASIS? Standard model structure Unified coding standards (i,j,k, etc.) Exchangeable model technology at component level Standard ensemble prediction infrastructure Standard I/O interfaces Standard model metadata Cost & time to implement 11

12. Technology Transition Process Committee Task: Align agency transition processes to streamline certification of new technology and reduce duplicative recertification among the Tri-Agencies. • Define common operational needs and translate to common requirements • Develop a common research agenda and direction • Develop the VTC/DTC/VSP CONOPS • Funding, support, security, etc. • Align agency processes to transition new technology to operations

14. Committee Issues - TTP DTC/VTC/VSP At center, at other site, multiple locations, virtual, what support, common metrics, etc., etc. Common research agenda (requirements, agenda, investment) How do we get requirements from the three agencies? How to we merge the list? How do we turn requirements into a research agenda? How do we get resource sponsors to sign up to fund agenda? Aligned transition process What is important to align? How will it improve life? Info assurance How do we guarantee code is not corrupt? How do we meet agency code release requirements and still give broad community access? Cost & time to implement 14

15. Unified Ensemble Operations Committee Task: Develop a unified ensemble operational concept (CONOPS) to allow reliable production and exchange of ensemble products. • Identify unified ensemble operations requirements including: • Standard output format • Ensemble configuration • Product delivery schedule • Process for assembly and dissemination • Common post processing, if appropriate • Network security • Coordinated software update cycle • Data archival processes (who, what, where, how) • Communications, bandwidth and hardware acquisition • Estimate cost and time to implement

16. Committee Goals • Minimize operational center disruption • Achieve common architecture objectives while sustaining developmental headway • Achieve full stakeholder support • Develop well-defined standards that will focus research community participation and accelerate development • Develop standards and methodology that can evolve with changing technology • Operational centers involved up front (primary stakeholders)

17. Schedule & Deliverables • Membership approved June-July 2008. • Initial meetings summer 2008 • Draft final report for external coordination March 2009. • Revised committee reports for Agency coordination May 2009. • Internal Agency approval June 2009. • ESG Approval August 2009.

18. Follow up Committees/Panels work tasks Launching NUOPC Phase I 1FY08 2FY08 3FY08 4FY08 1FY09 2FY09 3FY09 4FY09 Phase I Tasks Establish Committees Nominate Apr 08 IOC-1 Committee Tasks Begin Phase II Implementation Sep 09 PM & Staff Review Review committees’ progress Apr 08 Jul 08 Oct 08 Jan 09 Apr 08 Interagency Review & Coord Coord Budget, IPLAN, CONOPS PM & Staff integrate Committee task results Committee Reports to PM & Staff ESG Approval Decision Brief to Principals Staff Draft Standards Reports