CCAFS Baseline Experience Patti Kristjanson

1. CCAFS Baseline Experience Patti Kristjanson CCAFS (CRP7) Research Leader: Linking Knowledge with Action CRP Collaboration on NRM Impact Assessment: An exploratory workshop  WorldFish Campus, Penang, Malaysia 14 – 15 February, 2012

2. To learn more about CCAFS sites, go to: ccafs.cgiar.org/where-we-work Adaptation and Mitigation Knowledge Network - amkn.org

3. CCAFS Baseline Strategy • Develop basic indicators that allow us to monitor change in our sites over time. In particular, changes that allow people to: • Manage current climate risks, • Adapt to long-run climate change, and • Reduce/mitigate GHG emissions • Understand the enabling environment that mediates certain practices and behaviours and creates constraints and opportunities policies, institutions, infrastructure, information and service) for communities to respond to climate change • Different indicators and approaches at three levels: household, village and organizational • Share everything (data too!) widely and quickly

4. Sampling frame • First, target countries chosen based on criteria agreed upon with WS participants (e.g. range of climate challenges, high poverty, etc) • Next, 10 x 10 km2 blocks were chosen, again based on a set of agreed upon criteria (here, strong local partners, CG CC work ongoing, were important) – to have the opportunity to link with AfSiS land health/carbon measurement work • 7 villages were chosen randomly within the block • 20 households were chosen randomly within these villages

5. Household-level baseline survey Objectives: Develop basic indicators, and be able to measure changes over time in our sites, of: • Food Security • Assets/Wealth • Agricultural production diversity • Agricultural selling diversity • Innovativeness (changes in agricultural management practices) • Mitigation practices • Weather information sources http://ccafs.cgiar.org/resources/baseline-surveys Dataverse: http://dvn.iq.harvard.edu

6. Household-level baseline survey • Household type, basic demography • Sources of livelihoods (on and off-farm) • Crop, animal, fish, tree, soil, land, water mgment changes • Reasons for changes – markets, climate, land, labour, pests/diseases, projects • Food security • Land and water access • Tree planting activities • Inputs and credit • Weather information • Groups • Assets

7. How food secure are these households? The more turquoise and purple, the more food secure!

8. How many changes have they been making to their farming practices?

9. East Africa: Changes being made to farm management practices Some changes in soil, land, tree management: • Introducing intercropping • Earlier planting • Earlier land preparation • Introducing rotations • Starting to use manure/ compost • Introducing terracing • Planting trees on farms Little or no introduction of irrigation, chemical fertilizers, improved drainage, improved soil or water management practices

10. Cellphone ownership % of households

11. Agricultural Assets – East Africa

12. Are more adaptive/innovative households more food secure? Number of changes made to farming practices in last 10 years Number of ‘hunger months’

13. Village-level baseline objectives • To provide indicators that allow us to monitor change in these villages over time. In particular, changes that allow people to: • Manage current climate risks, • Adapt to long-run climate change, and • Reduce/mitigate GHG emissions • Understand the policies, institutions, infrastructure, information and services (the enabling environment) for communities to respond to climate change • Social differentiation: • Perceptions of women and men will be gathered separately to present different gender perspectives • Focus groups will be selected to represent groups differentiated by age (i.e. youth group) and by economic status (i.e. food insecure group) to present different perspectives/capacities

14. Sampling frame • One village within each CCAFS block • Each block in EA (5) and WA (5) • One block per site in IGP (4 – Nepal, Bangladesh, Bihar, Punjab/Haryana) • Village sampling criteria • One of the 7 randomly selected villages from the household baseline • Located towards the centre of the block • Medium size within the range of villages within the block • Desired: selected village is characterized by local authorities/structures likely to cooperate actively in long-term CCAFS research; easy access; information rich

15. Topic 1: Participatory satellite image interpretation Activity 1: Interpretation of current conditions Activity 2: Interpretation of past conditions and future outlook Goal: For community members to interpret and add to satellite images to diagnose current and past conditions, and main drivers of change and a forward looking perspective on conditions in 2030. Justification: • Identification of status of resources that might influence village’s approaches to risk management, adaptation and mitigation measures • Interpretations serve as basis for subsequent focus group discussions • Satellite images (and digitized outputs) will be shared with the village: making CCAFS outputs applicable to real problems in the village • Through looking at what villages have at the moment and discussing limitations and aspirations for these resources helps us understand what situation is right now (1) and how much adaptive/mitigative capacity is there as precondition for setting the scene for future interventions

16. Topic 2: Adaptive/mitigative capacity – opportunities and constraints Group 1: Women – Group 2: Men Topic a: Food system, production, access to food-related infrastructure/ institutions, purchasing & marketing (same for each village) Topic b: Important natural resource issue identified during image interpretation and discuss problem solving, institutional dynamics Goal: Understand how prepared community is to respond to challenges as a consequence of CC and to participate in CCAFS interventions collectively Justification: Description of institutions that matter for food security and adaptive capacity: access to ag/cc info, info sharing/spread in village, local organizational capacity, active committees/ role models to target, groups doing certain things, sharing of resources during hard times, horizontal linkages, weaknesses/barriers, inequities, opportunities Objectives • Understand institutional roles, rules governing natural resources/food security/coping strategies at village level, membership in formal/informal institutions and interactions between institutions at village level and beyond. • Find evidence of organizational capacities that manage resources, facilitate problem solving and contribute to adaptive capacity – mediated by cooperation, collective action, networks, structures/institutions

17. Topic 3: Information and Services Group 1: Women – Group 2: Men Goal: understanding of capacity to deliver and use information, not just of products that are available • communication, institutional capacity on delivery side • capacity to use info for range of decisions on recipient side Justification: identify info gaps and how to provide appropriate and user-friendly information so that farmers are better able to minimize risks, adapt and mitigate Objectives: • Understand current access, availability, affordability, quality and trust of range of info/services that help people in village deal with risk, adaptation, mitigation and food security challenges (what?) • Identify how info/services are used, by whom, what are problems/advantages associated with services and influence decisions as well as opportunities and constraints to the above • Map out sources (provider) and networks (delivery channels) that facilitate the flow of info and delivery of services (Who and how?)

18. Topic 4: Adaptive capacity & information/services combined Group 1: Youth – Group 2: Food insecure Understand key dimensions of social differentiation (gender, ethnic, economic, religious, etc.) in each village and how they impact adaptive/mitigative capacity and access to/use of information/services Topics 2 and 3 will be discussed with two additional groups. Group 1: Youth group • Future looking perspective on aspects of food security, adaptive capacity, access to info/services – challenge youth to think about constraints/opportunities of making a living in their villages: with the resources available today and in the future • Aspirations and future opportunities/constraints as envisioned by youth - institutions, capacities, livelihood opportunities, role of community level processes Group 2: Food insecure group • Food secure group as proxy for people who have less resources • To understand different constraints and opportunities of sub-groups within the community that are generally considered more vulnerable to food insecurity

19. Organizational baseline • As for the other levels: • Measuring things that we expect CRP7 and other programs to change • Shallow and broad rather than deep and narrow • Understanding current institutions to come mostly from existing and/or secondary sources • Need to define simple and unambiguous indicators rather than comprehensive ones

20. Candidate organizations • Policy- and decision-making at national level • How are adaptation / mitigation decisions made currently, how science-based are these, what are the gaps • National Meteorological Services • State of website and meta-data, daily data “lag time”, what work is done in agricultural meteorology, what skills staff have • National Agricultural Research & Extension Systems • Are experiments put into a long-term context, are there staff who can use simulation models competently, what use is made of climatic data, do recommendations to farmers include risk statements

21. Candidate organizations • NGOs, Ministries of Agriculture, major Universities, … • Organisations that are using (or could use) climate and forecast information and making decisions that could be more science-based • Local organisations such as women’s groups and cooperatives • Use of climate and weather information, women’s roles in agricultural decision-making and in local and regional networks

22. All survey materials available at: http://ccafs.cgiar.org/resources/baseline-surveys