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Ecological Modeling Working Group

Ecological Modeling Working Group. 23 December 2013 Meeting. Outline. Mattias Obst Work Biovel ENM Workflow User Scenarios Data/Metadata Next Steps. Outline. Mattias Obst Work Biovel ENM Workflow User Scenarios Data/Metadata Next Steps. Matthias Obst Work.

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Ecological Modeling Working Group

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  1. Ecological Modeling Working Group 23 December 2013 Meeting

  2. Outline • MattiasObst Work • Biovel ENM Workflow • User Scenarios • Data/Metadata • Next Steps

  3. Outline • MattiasObst Work • Biovel ENM Workflow • User Scenarios • Data/Metadata • Next Steps

  4. Matthias Obst Work • APPLICATION OF ECOLOGICAL NICHE MODELLING AND EARTH OBSERVATION FOR THE RISK ASSESSMENT AND MONITORING OF INVASIVE SPECIES IN THE BALTIC SEA - Kerstin Stelzer (Brockmann Consult GmbH) - Karin Heyer - Dr. Sarah Bourlat (SeAnalytics AB) - Dr. Matthias Obst (SeAnalytics AB)

  5. The Problem • International Convention for the Control and Management of Ships’ Ballast Water and Sediments • International Shipping is the most important introduction vector for accidental marine translocation by discharging ballast water in the ports of destination • Convention will come into force ships will have to manage their ballast water before discharging it. • Exceptions : • Vessels operating in some regions, such as enclosed seas, or on short journeys, may have the opportunity to grant for an exemption from ballast water management. • Will only been granted on basis of a certain Risk Assessment, to investigate if invasive species are living in the donor port and might have the possibility to be transferred by ballast water and could survive in the recipient port.

  6. Ecological Niche Modeling Method

  7. Biovel Workflow Process

  8. Layers Used • PhotosyntheticallyAvailable Radiation (Einstein/m2/day) • Sea Surface Temperature (°C) • Mean Salinity (PSS) • Nitrate (μmol/l) • Phosphate (μmol/l) • Silicate (μmol/l) • Mean annual distance to land • Mean sea ice concentration • Information taken from various sources including Aquamaps

  9. Satellite Data

  10. MERIS Data

  11. Species Selection • Criteria • They have invaded in the last 100 years • They are tolerant to a wide range of salinities • They are highly invasive • They are non-parasitic • Occurrence data • GBIF • ICES • national monitoring agencies • Species Selected (5 phytoplankton, 1 macroalgae) • Alexandriumminutum • Pseudochattonellafarcimen • Alexandriumostenfeldii • Prorocentrum minimum • Sargassummuticum • Coscinodiscuswailesii

  12. Alexandriumminutum

  13. Alexandriumminutum • Is found in: • warm temperate, coastal and estuarine waters over a number of geographic areas • In Europe : Ireland, England, northern France, northwest Spain, the North Sea and Mediterranean Sea and Norway. • Impacts on native phytoplankton community and habitat: • produces high concentrations of toxins and is responsible for many global cases for paralytic shellfish poisoning (PSP) in humans. • it is the most widespread toxic PSP species in the Mediterranean Sea.

  14. Pseudochattonellafarcimen

  15. Alexandriumostenfeldii

  16. Prorocentrum minimum

  17. Sargassummuticum

  18. Coscinodiscus wailesii

  19. Ecological Requirements

  20. Occurrence Records

  21. Explorative Modeling – Parameters

  22. Potential Distribution Map

  23. Potential Distribution Map

  24. In-Depth Modelling - Parameters

  25. Potential Distribution Map

  26. Potential Distribution Map

  27. Requirements • Sufficient occurrence records • Quality of Environmental Layers Information • Species Biology • conditions • adaption

  28. Outline • MattiasObst Work • Biovel ENM Workflow • User Scenarios • Data/Metadata • Next Steps

  29. Occurrence Data

  30. Biovel Portal

  31. Algorithm Selection

  32. Algorithm Parameter Values

  33. Layers Selection

  34. Mask Creation

  35. Create Present Day Projection

  36. Create 2050 Projection

  37. View and Download Results

  38. Outline • MattiasObst Work • Biovel ENM Workflow • User Scenarios • Data/Metadata • Next Steps

  39. User Scenario Visualization Mechanisms Uploads Occurrence Dataset Biovel DRW to “Clean” the Data Biovel ENMW View or Store Results User Uses Biovel DRW to Obtain Dataset Other Workflow (ENSW)

  40. Outline • MattiasObst Work • Biovel ENM Workflow • User Scenarios • Data/Metadata • Next Steps

  41. Metadata • Occurrence Metadata (Almost Done) • Ecological Metadata (EML?) • Workflows Metadata (CRM Digital?) • GeoInfoMetadata

  42. Outline • MattiasObst Work • Biovel ENM Workflow • User Scenarios • Data/Metadata • Next Steps

  43. Next Steps • Complete Metadata Lists and Modeling • Complete and Describe Users Scenario • Study in Depth (and find more info about) Matias Model and Biovel Workflows • Decide which Species to Use • Obtain Mediterranean Occurrence Data for these Species • Know how (and take a decision) Biovel Workflows will be embedded in the LW portal • Pre/Post processing • What other modeling is necessary?

  44. Thanks You and Marry Christmas!!!

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