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Climate recap and outlook

Climate recap and outlook. Nate Mantua, PhD University of Washington Center for Science in the Earth System - Climate Impacts Group Kelso, WA October 3, 2006. The CSES - Climate Impacts Group. http://cses.washington.edu/cig/.

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Climate recap and outlook

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  1. Climate recap and outlook Nate Mantua, PhD University of Washington Center for Science in the Earth System - Climate Impacts Group Kelso, WA October 3, 2006

  2. The CSES - Climate Impacts Group http://cses.washington.edu/cig/ • Goal: help the Pacific Northwest become more resilient to climate variations and climate change • Supported by NOAA Climate Program Office as part of the Regional Integrated Science and Assessments (RISA) program

  3. global temperatures continue to run high http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov

  4. The pattern is global http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov

  5. Current drought

  6. Accumulated Precip for the past year Source: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/global_monitoring/precipitation/northwest_1yrprec.shtml

  7. Accumulated Precip for the past year Source: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/global_monitoring/precipitation/northwest_1yrprec.shtml

  8. Accumulated Precip for the past year Source: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/global_monitoring/precipitation/northwest_1yrprec.shtml

  9. Accumulated Precip for the past year Source: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/global_monitoring/precipitation/northwest_1yrprec.shtml

  10. Daily Temperatures +0.90ºC +0.81ºC

  11. 2006 snow pack • Warm weather in May started a rapid melt of the PNWs abundant snow pack

  12. Our hot-dry summer • For OR-ID-WA, May-June-July 2006 was warmest on record (back to 1895) • June-July-August was 3rd warmest on record

  13. 28-day mean stream flow from the USGS

  14. Oct 1st estimated soil moisture percentiles • Courtesy of Andy Wood, University of Washington, data and images are available at http://www.hydro.washington.edu/forecast/monitor

  15. Last year’s outlook • The ENSO outlook: La Nada (“normal”) • PNW climate outlook: odds favoring a “warm” winter and spring

  16. IRI ENSO Forecast Summary • Forecasts from October 2005 called for Nino34 ranging from -0.2 to +0.6, with an average of ~+0.2 http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/currentinfo/SST_table.html#figure

  17. Oct 12, 2005 NOAA NCEP ENSO forecasts http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/ensoforecast.html

  18. Nov-Mar 2006 SST anomalies: a mild La Niña for the Pacific

  19. Last year’s forecast (from Oct 20) DJF temp 2005-06 FMA temp 2006

  20. Last year’s precipitation forecasts for 2005-2006: issued Oct 20 2005

  21. The forecast Forecasts … ? Cartoon obtained from: http://www.cartoonstock.com/directory/c/crystal_ball.asp

  22. Global Ocean Surface Temperatures: July 2-September 30 2006

  23. The tropical ocean is warm http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/l

  24. El Niño is simmering • Tropical ocean temperatures have been warmer than average since mid-May, and have already crossed the “El Niño” threshold

  25. The latest ENSO forecasts See http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO European Center Forecast summaries NOAA NCEP

  26. Average El Niño winter precip: 1916-2003 • Dry on the western, wetter slopes, slightly wet or near average for the “rainshadow” areas From http://www.cses.washington.edu/cig/maps

  27. Pacific Ocean Outlook Summary • Current forecasts rate weak-to-moderate El Niño as most likely situation for 2006/07 • PDO: A simple forecast with skill relies on “PDO persistence + ENSO influence” (see Newman et al. (2003), J. Climate) • Expect weak warm phase PDO conditions for 2006/7 • PDO = +0.3 to +0.8 st devs for Nino34 = +0.5 to +1.5 • A Note on Last year…

  28. NOAA/CPC forecasts issued September 21, 2006 http://cpc.ncep.noaa.gov OND precip JFM precip

  29. NOAA/CPC forecasts issued September 21, 2006 http://cpc.ncep.noaa.gov OND temperature JFM temperature

  30. The Bottom line • a weak to moderate El Niño is likely for the next 2-3 seasons • because of trends and expectations for a weak to moderate intensity El Niño, above-average fall/winter/spring temperatures are likely • El Niño also tilts the odds in favor of a dry fall/winter and below average end-of-season snow pack See http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

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