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Predicted Probability of Policy Change

Predicted Probability of Policy Change. Preference/Policy Link when Preferences Across Income Levels Diverge. Preference/Policy Link by Income by President. Preference/Policy Link by Income by President (when preferences across income levels diverge). Johnson Administration Policies.

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Predicted Probability of Policy Change

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  1. Predicted Probability of Policy Change

  2. Preference/Policy Link when Preferences Across Income Levels Diverge

  3. Preference/Policy Link by Income by President

  4. Preference/Policy Link by Income by President (when preferences across income levels diverge)

  5. Johnson Administration Policies

  6. Predictors of presidential approval during July / August of first year in office

  7. Broadly Popular G.W. Bush Administration Policies - No Child Left Behind - Medicare drug benefit - Faith based initiative - Compromise on stem cell funding - Income tax cuts and estate tax repeal - Afghan and Iraq wars - War on terror

  8. Systematic Influences on Policy Responsiveness - Electoral cycle - Gridlock - Change in presidential partisan regime - Majority party seat advantage

  9. Summary of the Preference/Policy Link by Political Conditions (when preferences across income levels diverge) “positive conditions”“negative conditions” 10th50th90th10th50th90th Pres. Congr. High New Small Election year None Gridlock Low Party regime Old Seat advantage Large

  10. Preference/Policy Link Under GW Bush

  11. Preference/Policy Link Under GW Bush

  12. Conclusions: - Representational inequality is enormous - Responsiveness to the affluent has increased - Parties act as policy maximizers - Political circumstances matter

  13. Why do the affluent have more influence? - Policymakers are affluent ? - The affluent vote, volunteer, contact their representatives, etc. ? - The affluent provide the money ? - They don't: it’s really the 99th ptile that matters ?

  14. Political Behaviors by Income

  15. Why do the affluent have more influence? - Policymakers are affluent ? - The affluent vote, volunteer, contact their representatives, etc. ? - The affluent provide the money ? - They don't: it’s really the 99th ptile that matters ?

  16. What can be done? - Campaign finance reform - Electoral reform to increase competition - Focus on policies favored by affluent and poor alike

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