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The Future

The Future. UWME is still in its early stages. Several active research projects involving diverse groups NOAA C-STAR (mesoscale EnKF data assimilation, gridded bias removal) DoD MURI (interactive forecast system to handle/visualize forecast uncertainty)

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The Future

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  1. The Future • UWME is still in its early stages. • Several active research projects involving diverse groups • NOAA C-STAR (mesoscale EnKF data assimilation, gridded bias removal) • DoD MURI (interactive forecast system to handle/visualize forecast uncertainty) • Considerable improvement/expansion is planned. • UWME is expanding to include both cycles and more members • UWME will also investigate a number of post-processing approaches: grid-based bias correction, Bayesian model averaging, EMOS • UW can serve as a regional testbed center for mesoscale ensembles • UW can test various mesoscale ensemble and ensemble post-processing approaches for use at NCEP and other modeling centers. • Can test the use of mesoscale ensembles in environmental prediction applications • Hydrologic ensemble (based on UWME) • Air quality ensemble (based on UWME)

  2. The Future • NOAA-UW relationship is collaborative • Experimental UWME products at NWS-Seattle • Probability and Mean & Spread data in AWIPS • UWME PoP in IFPS • Extended-run MM5 for IFPS • WRF • Would like to compare NCEP SREF with UWME • Multianalysis method may be surprisingly difficult to beat • Other methods? ETKF?

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