1 / 26

THE FUTURE

THE FUTURE . Emerging technologies IT and e -commerce. TECHNOLOGY FUTURES. Communications Input/Output Computing. COMMUNICATIONS. Bandwidth will get much, much cheaper and more available. More people will have more decision-making power in organizations.

jafari
Download Presentation

THE FUTURE

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. THE FUTURE Emerging technologies IT and e-commerce BA 572 - J. Galván

  2. TECHNOLOGY FUTURES • Communications • Input/Output • Computing BA 572 - J. Galván

  3. COMMUNICATIONS • Bandwidth will get much, much cheaper and more available. • More people will have more decision-making power in organizations. • Will videoconferencing be as good as being there? • Wireless will be increasingly important. • There will never be enough bandwidth. • ...or will there? BA 572 - J. Galván

  4. INPUT OUTPUT • Human interfaces will improve, but less rapidly than some expect. • Speech • Written natural language • Tangible interfaces • Electronic paper • Neural interfaces • Computers will be more capable of acting in the physical world. • Vision • Robotics / Motion • Desktop fabs • RFID BA 572 - J. Galván

  5. COMPUTING • Computers will be much, much faster and cheaper. • Limits to current technologies? • Quantum computing • Nanotechnology • DNA computing/ biological computing • Computers will be everywhere. • Ubiquitous computing • Information appliances • Wearables • Computers will be smarter. • Limits to artificial intelligence? BA 572 - J. Galván

  6. POSSIBLE FUTURES AND FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS (EC) • Identify possible future scenarios • Conduct preliminary feasibility analysis • Technical feasibility • Does the necessary technology exist? • Is the necessary technology likely to exist in time? • Economic feasibility • Does the outcome promise a reasonable return? • Political feasibility • Can the task be done in the context of the existing or expected social and political environment? • Scenario not feasible if any answer is no BA 572 - J. Galván

  7. WILD CARDS • Unanticipated technological changes • Can make current scenarios of the future irrelevant BA 572 - J. Galván

  8. TIERED CLASSES INTERNET SERVICES. Is it likely that such a system for “classes of service” will become the norm? BA 572 - J. Galván

  9. POSSIBLE FUTURES • Tiered services will fade away • Tiered services will be successful but no obvious standard will emerge • Tiered services will become the new standard • Example: Consider the third possible future BA 572 - J. Galván

  10. TECHNICAL FEASIBILITY • There is no technical reason why tiered services cannot emerge in the “foreseeable” future • Tiered Internet services are technically feasible BA 572 - J. Galván

  11. ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY • Model exists • Television • Broadcast • Basic cable • Premium cable • Pay-per-view • Tiered services are economically feasible BA 572 - J. Galván

  12. POLITICAL FEASIBILITY • Tiered services will change the Internet • Preferential treatment for some • The “information should be free” credo • Winners • Service providers – fees • Higher-tier users – quality and speed • Losers • Serious, independent Web surfers • Online advertisers • The information have-nots BA 572 - J. Galván

  13. WEB SERVICES • Intermediary-supplied e-utilities • Allow incompatible applications to interact • Similar to ASP services • Software building blocks • Examples • Credit card approval • Currency conversion • Word to PDF • Airline to car rental links BA 572 - J. Galván

  14. THINK OF A WEB SERVICE AS A REMOTE SUBROUTINE. BA 572 - J. Galván

  15. WEB SERVICES: POSSIBLE FUTURES • Web services are mostly hype • They will fade away • Custom solution better option • Web services will be successful but no dominant standard will emerge • Trading partners with incompatible services • Web services will be successful and a dominant standard will emerge • Best outcome for supply chain integration BA 572 - J. Galván

  16. TECHNICAL FEASIBILITY • Web services are technically feasible • Intermediary XML applications common • Question: Will a standard emerge? • Islands, continents, planets of automation • Historically, a few firms will dominate • Lock-in attempts will abound BA 572 - J. Galván

  17. ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY • Web services look promising • CIO article – $15.5 billion by 2005 • Expect fierce competition • Risk – vaporware BA 572 - J. Galván

  18. POLITICAL FEASIBILITY • Winners if a single standard emerges • The vendor who owns the standard • Microsoft .NET • Sun Microsystems J2EE • IBM Tivoli software portfolio • Risk – monopoly, collusion • Cautions and concerns • Excessive hype • Publicly available services diminish competitive advantage BA 572 - J. Galván

  19. THE FUTURE OF WEB SERVICES • Consider the firms pushing Web services • IBM, Microsoft, Sun their track records are good • They have deep pockets • Their long-term success depends on customer lock-in • Accelerating pace of change • Web services can cut response time • Web services can cut development cost • Multiple “standards” most likely outcome • Incompatibilities with trading partners will continue to be a problem BA 572 - J. Galván

  20. TECHNOLOGY • Wireless communications • Becoming ubiquitous • Calling areas expanding • Trend toward fixed monthly fee • Short-range wireless also exploding • Bluetooth • Wi-Fi • Cautions • Exposure to radiation? • Being “always on” BA 572 - J. Galván

  21. BUSINESS • Value chain/supply chain integration • Limit – frictionless e-commerce • Will lead to intense competition • Could lead to consolidation • Physical security improvements • Disperse potential targets • Smaller offices in smaller towns • Telecommuting • Parallel to Interstate highway system • Real-time employee monitoring BA 572 - J. Galván

  22. EDUCATION • Pace of change accelerating • Need for continuous retraining • Commencement marks a beginning • Education infrastructure inconvenient • New educational models emerging • Evening, weekend, on site • Internet based • New models will be source of growth • Quality a concern – accreditation • Risk – credentialing BA 572 - J. Galván

  23. VIDEO GAME PLATFORMS ARE THE STATE OF THE ART. • Wild card • Near future source of interactive learning/training environments • Critical mass of gamers exists • May change nature of education, training or life-long learning BA 572 - J. Galván

  24. THE TOTAL EDUCATION AND TRAINING PIE. Today 2020 BA 572 - J. Galván

  25. E-COMMERCE AND YOUR FUTURE • Important to consider • Ripple effects • Unintended side effects • Lock-in opportunities and constraints • Focus on your future • Expect to see growing attention to security and privacy in EC/EB system deployments BA 572 - J. Galván

  26. IT’LL ALWAYS HAPPEN! BA 572 - J. Galván

More Related