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The Future

The Future. May 2, 2013. Opportunities to discuss course content. Today 11-2 No Office Hours Tomorrow or During Finals Week Turn papers in by 11:59AM to Doyle 226B. Learning Objectives. Discuss the Electoral College and the strategy of presidential campaigns

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The Future

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  1. The Future May 2, 2013

  2. Opportunities to discuss course content • Today 11-2 • No Office Hours Tomorrow or During Finals Week • Turn papers in by 11:59AM to Doyle 226B

  3. Learning Objectives • Discuss the Electoral College and the strategy of presidential campaigns • Identify and describe the formal and informal institutions involved in the electoral process

  4. Changes for the Future

  5. It will Survive The Electoral College

  6. The Map Favors the Democrats

  7. District Plan • Maine and Nebraska use this system • Popular with the party that Controls the House of Representatives • Could pass without an amendment

  8. National Popular Vote Interstate Compact • Would provide a back door to 538 • Popular after 2000 • Momentum has Slowed • Now largely partisan

  9. Why No Change • To Difficult to Amend the Constitution • More hits than Misses • The Fear of Unanticipated Consequences

  10. What of the Primaries and Conventions

  11. The Republicans • Didn’t Like their 2008 Rules • Didn’t Like their 2012 Rules • Will Reevaluate for 2016

  12. The Conventions • The late convention is no longer a financial positive • Low Ratings, Low Excitement • 3 Days and earlier Dates

  13. Big Money • Outcome • Corporations have stayed quiet • Develop new strategies • Big $ likely to stay

  14. Was 2012 part of a realignment?

  15. Short Term Deviations • Congressional Elections • Weaker partisan ties • Poor challengers • These can result in a landslide for one party

  16. What is a Realignment • A Durable shift in voting Patterns • The New Party Kills the Old • Majority Parties become minorities

  17. Who Switches in a Realignment • Hard Cores do not switch • Independents do • New Voters • Weak partisans become strong Partisans

  18. What Causes a Realignment • Economic or social crisis • Failure of the party to interpret change • A changed electorate

  19. The Policy Implications • A mandate for change • Major New Policies • Continued electoral success

  20. Options for the Losers • Ignore the issue • Try to absorb it • Change

  21. Kinds of Realignments • Secular Realignments- happen over time • Regional Realignments • Critical Elections

  22. VICTORY Defeat same Maintaining Deviating Converting Realigning change Types of Election Majority Party

  23. A Realigning Election • The Actual Critical Election • 1800 • 1860 • 1896 • 1930 • High Intensity • High Turnout

  24. A Maintaining Election • A boring election • The party in power remains in power • 1936, 1940, 1944, 1948, 1960

  25. Deviating Election • The Out party does well • No shift in long term partisanship • Caused by short-term factors • 1912, 1916, 1952, 1956

  26. Converting Election • The out party is gaining seats • The precursor to a realignment (1930) • The majority party keeps control.

  27. Was 2008-2012 a Realignment?

  28. Supporters of A Realignment • 2006 • 2008 • 2012 Does it meet the criteria?

  29. Criteria • A realignment gives rise to new dominant voter cleavage over interests ideological tendencies or issues • A realignment is preceded or contemporaneous with a good showing by a third party

  30. Criteria II • Voter Turnout is higher in a realigning election • Electoral Realignments bring about long spans of unified party control of the government

  31. Voter Turnout Went Down

  32. Criteria III • A realignment brings about sharp and durable changes in the electorate Realignments do not take vacations

  33. A Shrinking margin of Victory • Obama’s margin shrank from 2008 by 2% • Only 1.3% higher than Bush’s Re-election

  34. The Parties have been Competitive Republicans Democrats President- 76, 92, 96, 08,12(20 years) Senate- 1973-1980, 1989-1994, 2007-2015 (22 years) House- 1972-1994, 2007-2010 (26 years) • President- 72, 80, 84, 88 2000, 2004 (24 years) • Senate- 1981-1986, 1995-2006 (18 years) • House- 1995-2006, 2011-2015- 16 years

  35. Bad and Good News The Republicans

  36. Bad News • Republican Policy wars • The lack of New Ideas • The Demographic Bubble

  37. Outreach does not need to be massive • They do not need to win all the votes • They may benefit from an increasingly diverse democratic Party • Can use State legislators as a farm team

  38. Good and Bad News The democrats

  39. The Durability of the Obama Coalition • It weathered a slow economy • A bad midterm • Divisive policy initiatives

  40. Advantages • Demographics • African Americans • Latinos • Asian-Americans • The Movement of Professionals to the Democrats • In 2012 • Women moved Iowa and New Hampshire • Latinos Moved Colorado, Florida and Nevada • African Americans moved Ohio and Virginia

  41. Advantages • Better Ground Game • The Need for Big Government

  42. Problems • The Absence of President Obama • Is it a Democratic Coalition, or an Obama Coalition?

  43. Disadvantages: the 2014 Election • Democrats are facing the 6-year itch • The President’s Party Loses Seats in the midterms • A referendum on the president • A referendum on the economy

  44. How You Know it is going to bad • Exposure and Coattails • Presidential Approval • Economic Growth

  45. Looking ahead to 2016

  46. The Electoral College

  47. The Role of History • The Third Term is increasingly rare • 11 Wins and 12 Losses since Washington • 2 Wins and 6 Losses in the past 100 years

  48. The Problem of an 8-year President • Personal Popularity does not Carry-over to the new nominee (Unpopularity does) • The Democratic Candidate’s Fate is Tied to Obama’s • He/She will Held Responsible for His Policies

  49. Presidents Tend To Decline

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