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TNS Media Intelligence/ Campaign Media Analysis Group September 4, 2008

TNS Media Intelligence/ Campaign Media Analysis Group September 4, 2008. The “Business” of Politics The 2008 Election Forecast Update. TNS Media Intelligence/CMAG The Business of Politics. Part of a world leading market information group TNS Located in Arlington, VA

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TNS Media Intelligence/ Campaign Media Analysis Group September 4, 2008

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  1. TNS Media Intelligence/Campaign Media Analysis GroupSeptember 4, 2008 The “Business” of Politics The 2008 Election Forecast Update

  2. TNS Media Intelligence/CMAGThe Business of Politics • Part of a world leading market information group TNS • Located in Arlington, VA • Providing insights on political media research since 1997 • Track and analyze political public affairs and issue-advocacy advertising • Experienced political researchers assemble the most reliable comprehensive research and reporting  • Help clients better manage their media strategy, media buys, public relations and communications efforts • National trade associations, foundations, Fortune 100 companies, national media organizations, the political and financial press academia and hundreds of national, statewide and local political campaigns rely on CMAG data

  3. The 2008 Election Forecast UpdateThe “Business” of Politics • Review the CMAG Forecast • The Building Blocks of Our 2008 Forecast • Not a banner year • The numbers • State & Local Overview • The Race For the White House • The battleground • The landscape • Looking Ahead • 2009 and 2010

  4. Campaign 2008 Election Spending Forecast:The Political Marketplace

  5. Campaign 2008 Election Spending OverviewThe Race to Election Day • CMAG Forecast: $3 Billion on Campaign Ads • 27 percent of total and climbing • $430m more than 2004 • Over $25 million per week • Typically 70 percent of total is spent over final 60 days • Spending Drivers • Historic presidential race • Competitive down ballot races • Ballot measures • Well-funded interest groups

  6. The 2008 CMAG ForecastBuilding Blocks • Macro-Factors (wrong) • Both presidential candidates will forego public financing • Primaries will be over after February 5, 2008 • Early start to general election ads • Network TV will not be utilized beyond the primary • Similar battleground from 2000 and 2004 elections • Groups will be early and significant ad spenders • US House will become GOP “firewall”

  7. The 2008 CMAG ForecastBuilding Blocks • Macro-Factors (right) • Record primary ad spending • Early start to primary ads • Expansion of candidates using TV ads • Some network TV and more cable buys • Growth in “issue awareness” spending • The Internet will not replaced TV in 2008

  8. Internet ElectionTake Six • This Is “The Internet Election” (maybe) • 1998: Read my plan • 2000: Look what I can do! • 2002: Cool web site, bad candidate • 2004: Meet up with Howard Dean • 2006: Macaca mania • 2008: Tools in the box • Internet: Still More Questions Than Answers • Is it for selling or buying? • Can you reach undecided voters? • If yes, how? • What’s the role for web ads in 2010 and beyond?

  9. Campaign 2008 Election Spending ForecastThe Role of the Internet in the 2008 Election • Top-tier presidential campaigns • Online ads mostly used for fundraising and grassroots • $7-10 million total spent in presidential race • $3-5 million on non-presidential ads • Top sites: local and national news, ideology, demographic, sports and election • Mistakes and perception

  10. Campaign 2008 Election Spending ForecastBy the Numbers Breakdown of 2008 Forecast vs. Actual 2008 US Senate: • Candidate $220-250 million $40 million • Party $60-100 million $5 million • IE $10-20 million $9.5 million US House: • Candidate $200-230 million $41 million • Party $100-160 million $4 million • IE $20-50 million $5.4 million

  11. Campaign 2008 Election Spending ForecastBy the Numbers: The US Senate • US Senate • Sea of red • The Magic 60? • New GOP Firewall • Most Competitive States • Alaska • Colorado • Kentucky • Maine • Minnesota • Mississippi • New Hampshire • New Mexico • North Carolina • Oregon • Virginia

  12. Campaign 2008 Election Spending ForecastBy the Numbers: US House • US House • Enormous battleground • Democratic Party cash advantage • Over $50 million placed already • Cash-strapped GOP • Most Competitive States • Arizona • Connecticut • Indiana • Ohio • New York • New Mexico • New Hampshire • Florida • Pennsylvania • Virginia

  13. Campaign 2008 Election Spending ForecastBy the Numbers Breakdown of 2008 Forecast vs. Actual 2008 State and Local • Governors$90-110 million $31 million • Ballots $190-230 million $121 million • Judges/AG $50-60 million $12 million • Other $175-250 million $32 million Issue: $330-400 million $250 million

  14. Campaign 2008 Election Spending ForecastBy the Numbers • Governors • 11 states holding governor elections • Ballot Measures • 28 states • Affirmative action, abortion, healthcare, gaming, gay rights, taxes immigration, energy and unions • Over $114 million in California • Issue Ad Spending • Energy, environment, healthcare and telecom

  15. Campaign 2008 Election Spending Forecast By the Numbers 2008 Race for the White House • Primary Overview: • Over $220 million on TV ads in primary • Combined spending: Democrats $150 million vs. GOP $58 million • Majority of early IE spending on issues and not candidates • Ad spending focused on early states • $87 million spent on TV ads in IA, NH and SC • Contest-by-contest focus meant primary ad spending in 46 states

  16. Campaign 2008 Election Spending ForecastBy the Numbers Breakdown of 2008 Forecast vs. Actual 2008 Presidential Race: Candidate $400-460 million $269 million* Party $150-175 million $4.1 million Groups $100-140 million $71 million *January-August 24th 2008

  17. 2008 Forecast Update The Battleground

  18. 2004 Election Map Begin Where We Ended Bush: 286 Kerry: 252

  19. Pre-Labor Day Target States Alaska

  20. The Battleground Many Scenarios and Possibilities • Post Convention Battlefield • Minimal bounce for Obama campaign • What will the McCain Convention/Palin bounce be? • Battleground Today • 7 True Battleground states • NV, CO, NM, NH, ND, OH, & VA • 5 Lean Republican • GA, FL, IN, MO, & MT • 4 Lean Democrat • PA, IA, WI, & MI • Key Regions/States this Fall • Mountain West (CO, NM, NV and MT) • Great Lakes (MI, WI OH, MN and Western PA)

  21. 2008 Forecast Update The Race for the White House

  22. The Stretch Run The Landscape: “Most Advantages Since Watergate” • Polls Favors Democrats Nationally • Unpopular president • Right track/wrong track • Political scandals and mismanagement • Economic anxiety • War fatigued • Lopsided party ID/registration • Down ballot races leaning overwhelmingly toward Democrats • Democrats have a monetary advantage

  23. The CandidatesBarack Obama • Spending & Fundraising • Record-setting • Expanding use of media/tools • Off public financing • Strategy • Use up as much “oxygen” as possible with ads and media • Own, don’t rent, the message • National themes and local attacks • Keys to success • Expand the battleground • Prevent being “Swift-boated”

  24. The CandidatesJohn McCain • Spending & Fundraising • Finished primary strong • Taking public financing • Strategy • Go negative • Disciplined • Define the race • Keys to success • Keep battleground compact • RNC money • Rely on groups for some messages

  25. The Supporter Will they play a role? • The Party’s • Republican Party is well-funded • Support role for McCain • Democratic Party is not as well funded • Raising money now • Tapping Obama donors • 527 Groups • Late money is being raised • Disruptive • Issue-Driven Agenda Groups • Millions spent on issues focused on the general election

  26. The Presidential Race It All Comes Down to Turnout • Crucial Voting Blocs • Clinton supporters • Ron Paul supporters • Evangelicals • Hispanics • Moderate/Independents • Young voters • Tone Of the race • Negative • Personal

  27. Events: Impacting Election Spending • Political Factors • Pres. & Vice Pres. debates will be crucial • Battleground post-conventions? • Can Obama turn any red states purple? • Can McCain hold the base? • Fundraising Republican vs. Democratic • Can Obama raise $1 billion from his 2 million? • Can McCain/RNC/others keep up? • International or Domestic Events • Weather, Economy, War on Terror, Russia, Israel and Iran • October Surprises • What will they be? • Will the undecided break come early or late?

  28. 2008 Forecast UpdateLooking Ahead

  29. Looking Ahead: 2009New Beginning • Reasons to be Optimistic about spending • Start of a new political business cycle • One Political Party will need re-building and re-branding • New Federal Government • Leadership & makeup of US House and Senate • Special elections: • Arizona and/or Illinois/Delaware • Cabinet Appointments • 2008 Issues Drive 2009 Issue Ad Spending: • Energy $232 million • Healthcare $150 million • Economy $72 million • Iraq $55 million • Gas Prices $40 million • Trade $9 million

  30. Looking Ahead 2010Onward and Upwards • Early campaigning • 2010 redistricting • Target States • Arkansas • California • Ohio • Georgia • Pennsylvania • Florida • New Record Likely

  31. Thank You

  32. Past, Present, Future

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