Results of the SWOT-Analysis for the PV Sector Recommendations for Action Plans

1. Results of the SWOT-Analysis for the PV SectorRecommendations for Action Plans Dr. Murray Cameron EPIA Vice-President I. Weiss, J. Baumann, R. Gisler and J.Stierstorfer WIP Renewable Energies 19th European Photovoltaic Solar Energy Conference and Exhibition PARIS, 9 June 2004

2. Objectives and Approach • Analysis of existing data and informatione.g. EPIA roadmap, PVNet, • Close cooperation with stakeholders and facilitating exchange of information • Interactive work, brainstorming and workshops 19th European Photovoltaic Solar Energy Conference and Exhibition PARIS, 9 June 2004

3. Results • Analysis (SWOT) as basis for strategic planning • Alternative strategies for the European PV Industry Creating a vision to foster strengths, to overcome weaknesses, to capitalize on opportunities and to avoid threats 19th European Photovoltaic Solar Energy Conference and Exhibition PARIS, 9 June 2004

4. Strategy development based on SWOT Analysis Strengths Weaknesses Pursue opportunities fitting the strengths Overcome weaknesses to pursue opportunities Opportunities Using the strengths to reduce vulnerability of threats Defensive plan:Prevent the weaknesses from suffering by threats Threats 19th European Photovoltaic Solar Energy Conference and Exhibition PARIS, 9 June 2004

5. Supply Side (Industry) Demand Side (Market) Solar GradeSilicon Crystalline Si Wafer Cells Thinfilm Technology Thinfilm a-Si, Cd-Te, CIS Modules Systems Feed-in Tariffs PV application Other Materials BOS Analysis III PV Components: PV Modules, BOS and PV Systems Innovative Concepts Analysis I Fundamentals Recycling Innovative Materials Analysis II Production of Wafers, Solar Cells and Modules Innovative Concepts 19th European Photovoltaic Solar Energy Conference and Exhibition PARIS, 9 June 2004

6. Recommended Actions 1. Solar Grade Silicon 1.1 Assure and solve availability issues for SGS at acceptable cost until 2005/06 • Priority on a well defined support framework programme for solar grade silicon (SGS) • Common standards development and quality specifications • R&D support, e.g. optimizing manufacturing process • Support for start-up plants (European, National, International) (financing schemes or finding new investors) • Define and agree binding roadmap with SGS producers at EU/National levels, including R&D & investment support • Arrange Industry Workshop ØSolution oriented to fix the problem (availability + price) 19th European Photovoltaic Solar Energy Conference and Exhibition PARIS, 9 June 2004

7. 1. Solar Grade Silicon cont‘d 1.2 Monitoring of the semiconductor industry • Assessment of price fluctuations, trends of demand etc. 1.3 Creation of a procurement consortium • To provide more negotiating power with the semiconductor industry, hence securing better and more stable prices • Possibly, to assist start-up SGS plants by committing to procurement volumes and prices 1.4 Optimized recycling processes for Si modules 19th European Photovoltaic Solar Energy Conference and Exhibition PARIS, 9 June 2004

8. 2. Thin Film 2.1 Tackling the perception-problem of customers  Possible measures: • Reliable long-term test-results by independent institution(s) • Improved communication/marketing  highlight the advantages (aesthetics, flexibility, BIPV) • Standardisation/certification 2.2 Monitoring of the legislation (e.g. the use of certain hazardous materials will possibly be prohibited) 2.3 Further support of R&D (fundamental research) • Development of solutions/applications together with other industries • Performance issue, (long-term) 2.4Closer co-operation with other industriesOrganizing roundtable events in order to discuss the possible advantages co-operation. • Glass- and construction-industry (market side)  standards for BIPV  easy solutions for architects (aesthetics, function etc.) • Display- and equipment-industry (supply side)  R&D 19th European Photovoltaic Solar Energy Conference and Exhibition PARIS, 9 June 2004

9. 2. Thin Film Cont‘d 2.5 Support for high level demonstration projectsThat help to underline the advantages of thin film technology and increase visibility (e.g. BIPV) 2.6 Prepare targeted information for financial institutions (FI)In order to convince FIs of the reliability of thin film technology – invitation to targeted high level PV events 2.7 Focus on off-grid applications with thin-film in developing countries • Lessons-learnt from regions in which thin film has already made an impact (e.g. Kenya) and transfer to other areas • Closer co-operation with international institutions (e.g. World Bank and other ODAs) to promote thin film in multi- and bi- lateral funded PV projects • Mobilisation of political support in developing countries for thin film through forging contacts with regional political bodies (African Union, ASEAN etc.) 19th European Photovoltaic Solar Energy Conference and Exhibition PARIS, 9 June 2004

10. 3. Feed-in Tariffs 3.1 Closer co-operation with utilities/understanding of behaviour of electricity industry (roundtables with utilities and related stakeholders) 3.2 Promotion in other EU countries • Development of an adaptable feed-in tariff concept incorporating elements such as initial feed-in tariff followed by net metering regulation over a lifetime of 10-25 years • Lobbying, energy-mix with solar electricity as a key element of a realistic future energy policy 3.3 Monitoring of results of feed-in tariffs • Success of feed-in tariffs? • Development in Japan and other regions? • Possible other instruments? • How is public acceptance developing? • Changing governments, policies, tools - be prepared!! 3.4 Development of other financing instruments 19th European Photovoltaic Solar Energy Conference and Exhibition PARIS, 9 June 2004

11. 4. General Recommendation Market/economical issues 4.1 Optimize small marketing budgets – Form Alliances • PV industry should form alliances with utilities, environmental groups, building developers, etc. • Consultation on the creation of an industry-wide advertising pool for PV 4.2 Prepare ‘Best Practice Stories’ (e.g. Brochure) Achieve awareness and public perception for BIPV incl. thin film technology, off-grid applications + financing instruments by using results from RTD projects (DG TREN) and commercial applications from the PV industry 4.3 Integration of PV systems at an early stage For planning of pre-fabricated and mass manufactured houses 4.4 Focus on the export markets for solar systemsRural areas in Africa, Asia and South America are of particular importance 4.5 Considering specific market segments Customer segmentation criteria: ecology, technology, status, ethic investment, return on investment 19th European Photovoltaic Solar Energy Conference and Exhibition PARIS, 9 June 2004

12. 4. General Recommendation Technical issues 4.6 Harmonization across EUStandards, guidelines and training are essential for successful market deployment 4.7 Do not Forget: Education and trainingArchitects, designers and installers of PV systems need education and training are essential 4.8 Improve research efforts in the area of hybrid systems PV array, wind generator, diesel generator mounted in one independent system for remote areas, hotels (tourism) and houses, water pumping systems, weather forecasting stations 19th European Photovoltaic Solar Energy Conference and Exhibition PARIS, 9 June 2004

13. Conclusions • Challenging Actions on Short-, Medium and Long-term for the PV Sector • Many weaknesses can be overcome by the PV sector itself (inside), but also support from outside needed, such as closer collaboration with other industrial sectors (building and glas) • Set priorities of actions and consider available budget!!! 19th European Photovoltaic Solar Energy Conference and Exhibition PARIS, 9 June 2004