National Earth System Prediction Capability (National ESPC): Collaborative Prediction Effort for Decision Support

1. The National Earth System Prediction Capability(National ESPC)

2. Partnership Evolution NUOPC National ESPC Agreement by NOAA, Navy and Air Force Weather to explore collaborative prediction effort ESPC Interagency Memorandum of Agreement established Extended-range ESPC workshops Workshop on Extended Range Prediction for Decision Support 2016 2011 2009 2006 Formal connection to Federal Coordinating structure 2005 2010 2012 ESPC/NUOPC unification as National ESPC merger of operational and research partnerships NUOPC ensemble IOC, National ESPC working groups initiated Workshops recommend NUOPC, interim committees develop final structure and milestones 2018 2017 2019 Metrics, Products, and Post-processing Workshop on S2S NOAA/OAR, Navy/ONR, DOE, NASA, NSF partnership NWS, FNMOC, AF WX partnership

3. What is National ESPC? • An integrated National Capability meeting the U.S. Federal need for Earth System Prediction by coordinating common science and technology to accelerate the capability of operational products and services • For the protection of life and property in the US • For the economic development, aviation, maritime, shipping, agriculture of the US • National defense and homeland security (worldwide) • Strategic decision making • Includes: • Near term, medium range and extended range weather (< 90 days) • Seasonal and inter-annual climate (90 Days+) • Sub-decadal to decadal • Leveraging research and development efforts and operational capabilities • Works within mission of each agency to further national goals Effort is broadly consistent with WMO’s S2S Prediction Plan and various national reports. Strong need identified for inter-agency coordination

4. Federal Coordinating Structure FCMSSR Committee on Environment, Natural Resources, and Sustainability Information exchange Federal Committee for Meteorological Services and Supporting Research AQRS IARPC Federal Coordinator for Meteorology SDR SGCR ICMSSR SOST SWAQ Interdepartmental Committee for Meteorological Services and Supporting Research ESPC ESG USGEO Working Groups and Joint Action Groups Committees

5. ESPC Staff Organizational Structure FCMSSR CENRS ESPC Executive Steering Group Secretariat (OFCM) Agency Liaisons Associate Project Manager for Research and Demonstration (NOAA) Project Manager Deputy Project Manager (Navy/NOAA) Working Groups

6. Building a National ESPC • Develop and implement a common or coordinated prediction technology • An affiliation of existing programs, projects, laboratories, centers, etc • Cooperative effort of the participating federal environmental research and environmental operational prediction agencies • Multiple centers and laboratories within each agency • Application of significant internal and external research and development funding • Focus on meeting needs of user community through existing and planned agency operational numerical prediction capabilities through coordinated R&D and Operations Coordination of Existing and Planned Agency Capabilities

7. Agency Roles and Responsibilities National Earth System Prediction Capability Advance common science ▪ Leverage expertise ▪ Coordinate Earth system prediction strategy ▪ Provide National capability

8. The Weather Research and Forecasting Innovation Act of 2017 Title II Sec. 201 (e) Cooperation.--The Under Secretary shall build upon existing forecasting and assessment programs and partnerships, including-- (1) by designating research and monitoring activities related to subseasonal and seasonal forecasts as a priority in one or more solicitations of the Cooperative Institutes of the Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research;(2) by contributing to the interagency Earth System Prediction Capability Additional highlights • ESPC mentioned explicitly in Sec. 201 • However, vast majority of ESPC activities described in Sec. 105 • Research innovation • Development of forecast skill and technology goals and objectives • Evaluation and identification of R&D activities and performance metrics • Interagency collaboration

9. Forecast Lead Time/ Decision Timescale HIGH SHORT RANGE FORECASTS (0-3 DAYS) MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS (3-7 DAYS) FORECAST CONFIDENCE EXTENDED RANGE FORECASTS (8-14 DAYS) WEEK 3-4 OUTLOOKS MONTHLYOUTLOOKS SEASONAL OUTLOOKS LONG TERM CLIMATE PROJECTIONS LOW 3 days 1 week 2 weeks 1 month 3 months 1 year 10 years 30 years Plan evacuations & sorties Issue aviation weather alerts AVIATION PLANNING Plan hospital management Pre-stage emergency supplies Plan FEMA evacuations Issue weather watches & warnings Inform situational awareness EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT Plan pest management Purchase seed Schedule planting Irrigate, apply nutrients, manage pests Strategic business planning AGRICULTURE Anticipate renewable energy availability Plan for demand spikes and loads Managing future markets Infrastructure and business planning ENERGY Manage reservoir levels for flood control Plan water allocation during drought WATER RESOURCES Design/Develop infrastructure Manage river levels Climate-driven training; Scenarios, diplomacy. Infrastructure acquisitions/development Plan humanitarian assistance Manage force deployments Ship Routing, prepositioning Plan/conduct Navy ship sorties DEFENSE Design/construct port infrastructure, ship acquisition Plan Arctic commercial shipping Tropical cyclone preparations for commercial shipping Designate global ship routing Arctic availability/Access MARITIME PLANNING BAMS 2017: The National Earth System Prediction Capability: Coordinating the Giant http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0002.1

10. Current Status • Operational Global Weather Ensemble • Current: 63-member multi-model, > 80 variables out to 16 days, skill at 11+ days, ½ degree resolution, adding variables, evaluating • Future: evaluating extended runs to 32 days, adding AF members • Multi-model Ensemble for Sub-seasonal and Seasonal Prediction • Common Model Architecture • NUOPC interoperability layer, Earth System Modeling Framework • User tools and GUI • In-place Coordinating Structure – Project Office • Executive Steering Group • Seven working groups for improved interoperability across expertise

11. Ongoing Activities • Executive Steering Group Recent Topics • Impacts of the Weather Research and Forecasting Innovation Act of 2017 • S2S and associated ESPC-sponsored workshop • Exascale computing issues • Consider incorporating engineering community • Interagency strategy and collaborations via program manager summit • Community modeling in NGGPS and UFS • Identify Priority Research Needs for skillful prediction addressing mission requirements • Coordination of existing agency efforts • Coordinate Development and Implementation of Operational Modeling Systems • Maturation of the HPC Working Group

12. Leadership Support • HPC needs and challenges • NSCI and Industry • Legacy code modernization • Weather, water, and climate community needs • Implications: Public safety, National security, Global standing • Improved strategic program and intellectual property coordination between agencies • Coordination at longer time scale • Mostly an R&D capability • Service provider not explicitly called out beyond S2S • Relationship to US CLIVAR and USGCRP • Global observing networks • Higher resolution data needed • Support for coupled system DA

13. Backup Slides

14. Collaborations • CICE Consortium • Funded in part by ESPC • Model multi-agency collaboration • Highly productive • Recent release of CICE column physics, Icepack • Planned major update to CICE model, late 2018 • Ocean Modeling • Combining NOAA and Navy resources to assess interoperability of HYCOM and MOM6 • Model Framework - NUOPC layer, ESMF • National Ice Center and ESRL-RASM • Data sharing for mission support • Establishment of O2R feedback structure

15. Multi-Model Ensembles and Underlying Architectures • Operational • NUOPC Ensemble (NWS, Navy, CMC) • Sub-seasonal and Seasonal Prediction • Leverages NMME/SubX development • Common Model Architecture • Earth System Modeling Framework • Fostering other “unified modeling frameworks” • Presents options to meet differing/contrasting mission needs Documentation: BAMS 2016: The Earth System Prediction Suite: Toward a Coordinated U.S. Modeling Capability http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00164.1 BAMS 2017: The National Earth System Prediction Capability: Coordinating the Giant http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0002.1

16. HPC Working Group • Scientific and computational challenges in the Exascale computing era • Briefed April FCMSSR on computing challenges facing the earth science community • FCMSSR suggested the group develop an ask • Birds of a Feather session at SuperComputing 18 • Next steps • Currently considering what an earth science, Navier-Stokes-focused HPC system would consist of • Manufacturers are more flexible; customizable systems/infrastructure are more reasonable • Need interagency support from operational and research entities for relevant inputs and realistic paths to adoption

17. Bridging the Gap Operational Products Strategic Decision Support DAYS 0 100 101 102 103 104 • Research agencies: work within mission expertise to improve skill • Operational agencies: exploit the research for skill improvements • Need strategic-level coordination of issues weather seasonal decadal Skill Gap • To extend weather skill past traditional weather scales: • Fully coupled air-ocean-land-ice modeling systems needed • Multi-model ensembles • Improved data assimilation techniques, particularly for ocean-land-ice • To improve climate model skill at subseasonal scales: • Data assimilation, reanalysis/reforecast • Process representation Needed across time scales: • Improved HPC utilization, i.e. advanced architectures • Common model architectures • Multi-model ensemble management • Uncertainty depiction; metrics suited for longer time scales • Product creation

18. Project-based Policy-based

19. Working Group Participants

20. National ESPC Working Groups: Participants (CMA) Iredell, Dr. Mark (NWS/EMC) McCarren, David (NUOPC/Nat. ESPC DPM) Black, Tom (NOAA/NWS/EMC) Brown, Bonnie (OAR/NUOPC/Nat. ESPC) Campbell, Dr. Tim (NRL SSC) Carson, Laurie (UCAR/NCAR/RAL) Carman, Dr. Jessie (OAR/NUOPC/Nat. ESPC) Cobb, Mark (FNMOC) Considine, Dr. David (NASA/ESD) DaSilva, Moraes Arlindo (NASA/GSFC) DeHann, Christopher (FNMOC) DeLuca, Cecelia (OAR, CIRES) DeWitt, David (NOAA/NWS/CPC) Doyle, Dr. James (NRL MRY) Dunlap, Rocky (OAR/ESRL) Eleuterio, Dr. Daniel (ONR) Ferraro, Robert D. (NASA/JPL) Giraldo, Frank (NPS) Gochis, Dave (UCAR/RAP) Goodall, Jon (Univ. of SC) Jacob, Robert (DOE, ANL) Jacobs, Gregg (NRL SSC) Johnson, Brad (OAR/NUOPC/Nat. ESPC) LaCroix, Kevin (CNMOC) Lawrence, Dr. Bryan (NCAS/NCAM, UK) Liang, Zhi (NOAA/OAR/GFDL) Manchester, Rupert (STFC, UK) Montuoro, Raffaele (NOAA/OAR, CIRES) Peckam, Scott (Colorado University) Rosinski, Dr. James (OAR, ESRL) Sandgathe, Dr. Scott (NUOPC/Nat. ESPC) Schneider, Timothy (NOAA/NWS/OSTI) Skamaroc, Bill (UCAR/NCAR, NESL) Skupniewicz, Chuck (Navy) Sedlacek, Daniel (AFWA) Theurich, Gerhard (ESMF/NCAR) Toepfer, Frederick (OSTI PM) Vertenstein, Dr. Mariana (UCAR/NCAR, NESL) Whitcomb, Dr. Tim (NRL MRY) Wood, Kelly (Navy) Rutherford, Steven (Navy)

21. National ESPC Working Groups: Participants (CSC) Chen, Sue (NRLMRY) Montuoro, Raffaele (NOAA/OAR, CIRES) Barton, Neil (NRLMRY) Brown, Bonnie (National ESPC) Campbell, Dr. Tim (NRLSSC) Chen, James (SAIC) DeHann, Christopher (FNMOC) DeLuca, Cecelia (NOAA/OAR/ESRL/GSD) Dunlap, Rocky (NOAA/OAR/ESRL/GSD) Jacob, Robert (ANL/MCS) Johnson, Brad (National ESPC) Li, Bin (NOAA/NWS/NCEP) Mariotti, Annarita (NOAA/OAR/CPO) Marx, Larry (GMU) McCarren, David (National ESPC) McGuinness, Terry (NOAA/NWS/EMC/VPPPGB) Meixner, Jessica (NOAA/NWS/EMC/MDAB) Peckam, Scott (Colorado University) Rivin, Ilya (NOAA/NWS/NCEP) Rosinski, James (NOAA/OAR/ESRL/GSD) Skupniewicz, Chuck (FNMOC) Theurich, Gerhard (NOAA/OAR/ESRL/GSD) Trahan, Samuel (NOAA/NWS/EMC/GCWMB) Tripp, Patrick (NOAA/NWS/COO) Vertenstein, Mariana (NCAR/CSEG) Zadeh, Niki (NOAA/OAR/GFDL) Rutherford, Steven (Navy)

22. National ESPC Working Groups: Participants (MCL) DeLuca, Cecelia (NOAA/OAR/ESRL/GSD) Bailey, Dave (UCAR/NCAR/CESM/PCWG) Balaji, V (NOAA/OAR/GFDL) Bozec, Alexandra (FSU) Campbell, Tim (NRLSSC) Chen, Sue (NRLMRY) da Silva, Arlindo (NASA) Dunlap, Rocky (NOAA/OAR/ESRL/GSD) Kinter, Jim (GMU) Kumar, Sujay (NASA) Marx, Larry (GMU) Maruyama, Naomi (NOAA/NWS/SWPC/SWSB) McCarren, Dave (Navy) Meixner, Jessica (NOAA/NWS/EMC) Metzler, Christopher (NRL) Montuoro, Raffaele (NOAA/OAR/ESRL/GSD) Schoonover, Joseph (NOAA/NWS/SWPC/SWSB) Theurich, Gerhard (NOAA/OAR/ESRL/GSD) Underwood, Seth (NOAA/OAR/GFDL) Vertenstein, Mariana (UCAR/NCAR/CGD/CESM) Wallcraft, Alan (FSU) Whitcomb, Tim (NRLMRY) Worthen, Denise (NOAA/NWS/EMC)

23. National ESPC Working Groups: Participants (PI) Doyle, Dr. James (NRL MRY) Adimi, Farida (NOAA) Benson, Dr. Rusty (OAR/GFDL) Bernadet, Dr. Ligia (OAR/GMTB) Caldwell, Peter (LLNL) Carman, Dr. Jessie (OAR/NUOPC/Nat. ESPC) Carson, Laurie (NCAR) Brown, Dr. Bonnie (OAR/NUOPC/Nat. ESPC) Cook, Dr. Benjamin (NASA/GISS) Donahue, Aaron (LLNL) Dudhia, Dr. Jimy (NSF, UCAR) Gill, Dave (UCAR) Goldhaber, Steven (UCAR) Grell, Georg (OAR/ESRL/GSD) Infanti, Dr. Johnna (OAR/Nat. ESPC) Iredell, Dr. Mark (EMC) Johnson, Brad (OAR/NUOPC/Nat. ESPC) Kain, Jack (NWS/EMC) Lei, Dr. Hang (EMC) McCarren, David (NUOPC/Nat. ESPC DPM) Michalakes, John (UCAR/NRL) Moorthi, Shrinivas (NOAA/NWS/EMC) Rideout, Dr. James (NRL MRY) Rosinski, Dr. James (OAR/ESRL/GSD) Rugg, Dr. Steven (AFWA) Schneider, Timothy (OAR, OSTI-Acting PM) Selin, Rebecca (AFWA) Toepfer, Fred (OSTI PM) Tripp, Dr. Patrick (EMC) Vasic, Ratko (NOAA/NWS/NCEP) Warren, Steve (NWS/OSTI/NGGPS) Whitcomb, Dr. Tim (NRL MRY) Zhu, Dr. Yuejian (NWS)

24. National ESPC Working Groups: Participants (CGM) Allard, Rick (NRL/SSC) Barton, Neil (NRL/MRY) Bleck, Rainer (NOAA) Brown, Bonnie (NOAA/OAR/OWAQ/ESPC) Chawla, Arun (NOAA) Danabasoglu, Gokhan (NCAR) Doyle, Jim (NRL/MRY) Eleuterio, Dan (ONR) Fairall, Chris (NOAA) Fioreno, Michael (NOAA) Frolov, Sergey (NRL/MRY) Gelaro, Ron (NASA) Griffies, Stephen (NOAA) Harris, Chris (UKMO) Janiga, Matthew (NRL/MRY (UCAR Visiting Sci.) Johnson, Brad (NOAA/OAR/OWAQ/ESPC) Jones, Phil (DOE/LANL) Kurkowski, Nicole (NWS/OSTI) Lewis, Huw (UKMO) Lin, Hai (EC) Mehra, Avichal (NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC) Penny, Steve (UMD) Putman, Bill (NASA) Renolds, Carolyn (NRL/MRY) Richman, Jim (NRL) Ridout, Jim (NRL/MRY) Rutherford, Steven (Navy) Saha, Sura (NOAA) Suarez, Max (NASA) Sun, Shan (NOAA) Swenson, Mark (FNMOC) VanderWesthuysen (Andre, NOAA) Whitcomb, Tim (NRL/MRY)

25. National ESPC Working Groups: Participants (HPC) Govett, Mark (NOAA/ESRL) McCarren, David (National ESPC) Kamrath, Anke (UCAR) Laviolette, Randall (DOE) Michalakes, John (UCAR) Ruggiero, Frank (AF) Cole, David (Navy) Lee, Tsengdar (NASA) Whitcomb,Tim (NRL-MRY) Clune,Tom (NASA) Michalakes, John (NOAA) Giraldo, Frank (Navy/NPS) Michaud, David (NOAA) Duffy, Daniel (NASA) Wallcraft, Alan (NRL-SSC) Jones, Philip (DOE/LANL) Ringler, Todd (DOE) Cuicchi, Christine (DOD HPC) Carman, Jessie (National ESPC) Indiviglio, Frank (NOAA/GFDL) Gross, Brian (NOAA) Powell, Charles (NOAA) Farrar, Michael (AF/Chief Scientist) Klotz, Stephen (FNMOC) McMillen, John (AF) Hart, Leslie (NOAA)

26. National ESPC Working Groups: Participants (Program Manager) Anderson, Nick (NSF) Avallone, Linnea (NSF) Bamzai, Anjuli (NSF) Barrie, Dan (NOAA OAR) Carlis, DaNa (NOAA OAR) Coe, Tom (Air Force) Considine, David (NASA) Cortinas, John (NOAA OAR) DeWeaver, Eric (NSF) Eleuterio, Dan (Navy) Ferek, Ron (Navy) Gabriel, Chris (Navy) Harper, Scott (Navy) Huang, Jin (NOAA OAR) James, Sim (OFCM) Ji, Ming (NOAA NWS) Joseph, Renu (DOE) Koch, Dorothy (DOE) Lee, Tsengdar (NASA) Legler, David (NOAA OAR) Lindstrom, Eric (NASA) Lu, Chungu (NSF) Lucas, Sandy (NOAA OAR) Mariotti, Annarita (NOAA OAR) Mathis, Jeremy (NOAA OAR) Schneider, Tim (NOAA NWS) Starkweather, Sandy (NOAA OAR) Stieglitz, Marc (NSF) Toepfer, Fred (NOAA NWS) Uz, Mete (NSF) Wagner, Thomas (NASA)

27. National ESPC Working Groups: Participants (Liaisons) Carman, Dr. Jessie (OAR/Nat.ESPC/S2S Portfolio) Considine, Dr. David (NASA/ESD, Science Mission Directorate) Ferek, Dr. Ron (Navy/ONR) Koch, Dr. Dorothy (DOE/CESD BER) Schneider, Tim (OAR/OSTI) LaCroix, Kevin (Navy/CNMOC) Lu, Dr. Chungu (NSF) Watson, David LCDR (Navy/NRL Mil Dep) Moore, T.C. (Air Force/Director of Weather Staff) Renu, Dr. Joseph (DOE/CESD BER) Mansour, LCDR Jason (Navy/N2N6E5) Bonadonna, Michael (OFCM, Nat. ESPC Exec. Secretariat) Mike Farrar (Air Force/AFWA Chief Scientist)

28. Community Engagement • Recent conferences • AAAS 2018 - Building a national Arctic prediction capability • AMS 2018 - Verification and validation on the S2S time scale to support the National ESPC • AGU 2018 • Supercomputing 2019 – HPC needs for Earth System Prediction • Upcoming conferences • AMS 2019 – Exascale HPC and predictability sessions • Workshop on metrics, post-processing, and products for subseasonal to seasonal (Feb 2018) • Efforts to Engage with National Strategic Computing Initiative