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NWS Forecast Evolution and Delivery in a Digital Era Glenn Austin

NWS Forecast Evolution and Delivery in a Digital Era Glenn Austin Office of Climate, Water, and Weather Services David Ruth Office of Science and Technology Silver Spring, MD June 6, 2006. National Digital Forecast Database.

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NWS Forecast Evolution and Delivery in a Digital Era Glenn Austin

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  1. NWS Forecast Evolution and Delivery in a Digital Era Glenn Austin Office of Climate, Water, and Weather Services David Ruth Office of Science and Technology Silver Spring, MD June 6, 2006 NOAA/NWS Digital Services

  2. National Digital Forecast Database • GOAL: Make NWS information available in digital form and available electronically. • HISTORY: NDFD has been operational since 2004. NOAA/NWS Digital Services

  3. Grid Availability • Data posted in WMO GRIB2 format at: • ftp://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/SL.us008001/... • Decoder software: • Link: http://www.weather.gov/mdl/NDFD_GRIB2Decoder • Function: Allows download and conversion to: • Shape files (compatible with ESRI) • Points, Simple polygons, Merged polygons • netCDF • GrADS • Lat/lon grids, Projected grids • Float files • Comma Separated Values files • Discussions underway with UNIDATA to host data NOAA/NWS Digital Services

  4. Experimental elements: QPF Snow Amount Sky Cover Significant Wave Height Operational elements: Maximum Temperature Minimum Temperature Temperature Dew Point Probability of Precipitation Weather Wind Direction Wind Speed Apparent Temperature Relative Humidity NDFD StatusNow available at ftp://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/SL.us008001/... ST.opnl/DF.gr2/DC.ndfd/ ST.expr/DF.gr2/DC.ndfd/ NOAA/NWS Digital Services

  5. Summer Releases • TPC Probability of Tropical Cyclone Wind Speeds (July)(TIN-xx issued June x) • Experimental Real-Time Mesoscale hourly Analysis (August)(TIN-24 issued May 2) • Day 1-3/4-7 file split (September)(TIN-30 issued May 9) NOAA/NWS Digital Services

  6. National Digital Forecast DatabaseTo be available at ftp://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/SL.us008001/... Developmental elements (from WFOs): • Hazard grids • Wind gusts • Maximum Relative Humidity • Minimum Relative Humidity ST.expr/DF.gr2/DC.ndfd/ NOAA/NWS Digital Services

  7. National Digital Forecast DatabaseTo be available at ftp://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/SL.us008001/... Developmental elements (from TPC): • Probability of Tropical Cyclone Wind Speeds >34kt (incremental) • Probability of Tropical Cyclone Wind Speeds >34kt (cumulative) • Probability of Tropical Cyclone Wind Speeds >50kt (incremental) • Probability of Tropical Cyclone Wind Speeds >50kt (cumulative) • Probability of Tropical Cyclone Wind Speeds >64kt (incremental) • Probability of Tropical Cyclone Wind Speeds >64kt (cumulative) ST.expr/DF.gr2/DC.ndfd/ NOAA/NWS Digital Services

  8. Tropical Cyclone Surface Wind Speed ProbabilityHurricane Wilma – Oct 2005 NOAA/NWS Digital Services

  9. National Digital Forecast DatabaseTo be available at ftp://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/SL.us008001/... Developmental elements (from SPC): • Probability of Tornadoes • Probability of Hail • Probability of Severe Storm Winds • Probability of Significant Tornadoes • Probability of Significant Hail • Probability Significant Severe Storm Winds • Total Probability of Severe Storms ST.expr/DF.gr2/DC.ndfd/ NOAA/NWS Digital Services

  10. National Digital Forecast DatabaseTo be available at ftp://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/SL.us008001/... Developmental elements (from CPC): • Probability of 8-14 Day Temperature Above Normal • Probability of 8-14 Day Temperature Below Normal • Probability of 8-14 Day Precipitation Above Normal • Probability of 8-14 Day Precipitation Below Normal • Probability of 30 Day Temperature Above Normal • Probability of 30 Day Temperature Below Normal • Probability of 30 Day Precipitation Above Normal • Probability of 30 Day Precipitation Below Normal • Probability of 90 Day Temperature Above Normal • Probability of 90 Day Temperature Below Normal • Probability of 90 Day Precipitation Above Normal • Probability of 90 Day Precipitation Below Normal ST.expr/DF.gr2/DC.ndfd/ NOAA/NWS Digital Services

  11. Operational Air Quality elements: 1 hour Ozone Concentration (3x) 8 hour Ozone Concentration (3x) National Digital Guidance DatabaseNow available at ftp://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/SL.us008001/... ST.opnl/DF.gr2/DC.ndgd/ ST.expr/DF.gr2/DC.ndgd/GT.mosgfs/ Experimental Gridded MOS elements: • Maximum Temperature • Minimum Temperature • Temperature • Dew Point • Probability of Precipitation 06h • Probability of Precipitation 12h • Probability of Thunderstorms 03h • Probability of Thunderstorms 06h • Probability of Thunderstorms 12h • Relative Humidity ST.expr/DF.gr2/DC.ndgd/ Experimental Air Quality elements: • 1 hour Surface Smoke • 1 hour Vertical Smoke Integration • 1 hour Ozone Concentration (5x) • 8 hour Ozone Concentration (5x) NOAA/NWS Digital Services

  12. Ozone for full CONUS NOAA/NWS Digital Services

  13. National Digital Guidance DatabaseTo be available at ftp://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/SL.us008001/... ST.expr/DF.gr2/DC.ndgd/GT.rtma/ ST.expr/DF.gr2/DC.ndgd/GT.mosgfs/ Experimental Real-Time Mesoscale Analysis elements: • Temperature • Dew Point • Wind Direction • Wind Speed • Quantitative Precipitation • Sky Cover Experimental Gridded MOS elements: • Wind Direction • Wind Speed • Wind Gusts • Sky Cover • Precipitation Type • Quantitative Precipitation – 06h • Quantitative Precipitation – 12h • Snowfall Amount ST.expr/DF.gr2/DC.ndgd/GT.slosh/ Experimental Hurricane Storm-Surge Probabilities: • Probability of Exceeding 5 feet • 10 Percent Exceedance Height NOAA/NWS Digital Services

  14. NDFD Capabilities in Development • Day 1-3/Day 4-7 file split • XML to query which grids have changed by element, projection, and WFO • Experimental grids for Alaska • Hourly grids on day 1 • 2.5 km grids • Analysis of Record • Probability grids that quantify uncertainty NOAA/NWS Digital Services

  15. Technical Workshop for Digital Product Users • PROPOSED DATE: November 2006 • LOCATION: Silver Spring, MD NOAA/NWS Digital Services

  16. Questions, Comments? glenn.austin@noaa.gov 301-713-1858 x150 david.ruth@noaa.gov 301-713-1768 x157 http://weather.gov/ndfd/ NOAA/NWS Digital Services

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