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Forecasting process: Severe Weather

Forecasting process: Severe Weather. Early warning. Strive to ensure that every person or organization at risk 1. Receives the information 2. Understands the information 3. BELIEVES the information 4. Personalizes the risk 5. Make correct decisions 6. Respond in a timely manner.

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Forecasting process: Severe Weather

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  1. Forecasting process: Severe Weather

  2. Early warning Strive to ensure that every person or organization at risk 1. Receives the information 2. Understands the information 3. BELIEVES the information 4. Personalizes the risk 5. Make correct decisions 6. Respond in a timely manner

  3. Early warning • Effective early warning should be: • Short, concise, understandable and actionable • What, where, when, why, how to respond • Should be presented in several different formats – text-graphics-color coded categories-audio; should include specific actions for people to take in response to the event.

  4. Process Identifying Severe Weather

  5. UKMO Model 5-7 Day Lead time

  6. NOAA Model 5-7 Day Lead time

  7. Unified Model 24 Hour fine scale lead time

  8. Web-based sources: QuickScat 5-7 Days: Issue an Advisory

  9. 24 Hour pictorial view of upcoming Severe weather >100mm in 24hour Keith Moir – Meteorologist – Cape Town Weather Office

  10. Process: Current Issuing and disseminating Warning

  11. Issuing of Warning Distribution list Desktop Warning

  12. Posted on the Internet

  13. Radio: KFM, Cape Talk, Tygerberg, CCFM, Voice of the Cape and many others Television Telephone: Direct to Forecaster Telephone: Recorded message- Vodacom Service Newspaper: Burger, Cape Times, Son, Argus, Local newspapers

  14. Process: Current Monitoring and Amending warnings

  15. Satellite images Old Tropical Cyclone - Favio Cold Front Very Cold Air Mass Extra Tropical Cyclone - Gamede Keith Moir – Meteorologist – Cape Town Weather Office

  16. Thunderstorm

  17. Thunderstorm Fog-Aviation Danger

  18. Thunderstorm Fog-Aviation Danger

  19. High Resolution

  20. Radar Lightning detection De Aar Weather RADAR Lightning Detection strikes Super impose RADAR and Lightning Detection Cape Town Weather RADAR

  21. High likelihood of large hail Severe Bottom storm

  22. Analysis of Routine observations Surface Upper air Feedback from Disaster Managers and affected people Warning Updates issued regularly until threat has passed

  23. Other Tools Webcams Independent Weather stations

  24. Process: Current After Event

  25. Keith Moir – Meteorologist – Cape Town Weather Office

  26. Any follow-up weather Rescue mission conditions Post-impact assessment: Meteorological Aspects Keith Moir – Meteorologist – Cape Town Weather Office

  27. New Severe Weather Alert System

  28. New Severe Weather Alert System

  29. New Severe Weather Alert System

  30. New Severe Weather Alert System • Way Forward: • Re-define warning criteria in conjunction with Disaster Management structures. • Educate People-Risks, Adequate Preparedness, • Keep abreast with Modern Technology- Dissemination of warnings • Keep abreast with advancements in Meteorology-, Climatology research

  31. South African Flash Flood Guidance System Delineation of River Basins Will Be Discussed Next

  32. Thank You For Your Time

  33. www.capetown.dj/people/people.html http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/a2/Mountaineers_in_High_Tatry_mountains_winter.jpg http://www.jokesy.com/images/old-lady-senior-citizens-jokes1.jpg http://happytrailsboardingkennel.com/sitebuilder/images/sick_puppy-600x319.jpg http://weathersavvy.com/windysnow_OPT.jpg http://ed101.bu.edu/StudentDoc/Archives/ED101fa06/mattwall/Weather%20Pictures/thunderstorm.jpg http://www.airliners.net/aviation-forums/general_aviation/read.main/2271578 http://www.iopara.ca/research.html

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