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The Demographic Transition Model

The Demographic Transition Model. What is it?. Model of population change based on the effects of economic development Based on the experience of how development happened in the Western World All countries pass through 4 stages that lead them to a state of maturity. What does it look like?.

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The Demographic Transition Model

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  1. The Demographic Transition Model

  2. What is it? • Model of population change based on the effects of economic development • Based on the experience of how development happened in the Western World • All countries pass through 4 stages that lead them to a state of maturity

  3. What does it look like?

  4. Stage 1- preindustrial/preagricultural • Associated with pre-Modern times • Both birth and death rates are high resulting in slow population growth • What are the causes of high birth and death rates at this time?

  5. Stage 2- improved agriculture and medicine • Low death rates • Infant mortality rate falls while the birth rate remains high • Rate of natural increase is high • Why do death rates decrease?

  6. Without demographic transition, we would not have seen this pattern

  7. Stage 3 Indicative of richer, more developed countries Higher standards of living and education Crude birth rate finally falls

  8. Stage 4 • Birth and death rates have both stabilized • Population gets older • Population stabilizes

  9. Example Countries

  10. Problems with the Demographic Transition Model • based on European experience, assumes all countries will progress to complete industrialization • many countries reducing growth rate dramatically without increase in wealth • on the other hand, some countries “stuck” in stage 2 or stage 3

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