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Use of CHIMERE in the Transboundary Air Pollution Negociations framework Laurence ROUÏL

Use of CHIMERE in the Transboundary Air Pollution Negociations framework Laurence ROUÏL Direction des Risques chroniques. INERIS acts as a technical support of the Ministry of Ecology : Support for the definition of national environmental regulations,

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Use of CHIMERE in the Transboundary Air Pollution Negociations framework Laurence ROUÏL

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  1. Use of CHIMERE in the Transboundary Air Pollution Negociations framework Laurence ROUÏL Direction des Risques chroniques

  2. INERIS acts as a technical support of the Ministry of Ecology : Support for the definition of national environmental regulations, Participation to European normative work, Participation to European working groups devoted the definition of future policies Within the framework of air quality…. Since 1979 : Convention on Long Range Transboundary Air Pollution (CLRTAP) : UN -ECE Since 2002-2003 until july 2005: CAFE program (EU) ; definition of the « Air Quality Thematic Strategy » defining the main purposes of the future european legislation Since 2005 until July 2006: Review of the National Emission Ceilings Directive Several working groups (EU and UN-ECE) devoted to air quality monitoring (measurements) and normative aspects Introduction and Context

  3. Groupe de Travail STRATEGIES Organe Exécutif (représentants des Parties) Comité d'application Groupe de Travail sur les EFFETS Organe Directeur EMEP PIC Forêts TF Inventaires d'Emis- sions et prévisions PIC Suivi Intégré sur les écosystèmes TF Mesures et Modélisation (transferts atmosphériques) PIC Matériaux • Centres de Coordination • Substances chimiques • Synthèse météo Est et Ouest PIC Végétation PIC Eaux PIC Modélisation et Cartographie Réseau EGTEI (Technico-économique) Groupe d’Experts sur les Métaux Groupe d’experts sur les POPs Groupe d’experts sur l‘ammoniac Réseau NEBEI (Economique) TF Modélisation Intégrée (Optimisation économique des scénarios) TF Santé Humaine Centre de Coordination modélisation intégrée PIC = Programme International Concerté TF = Task Force (équipe spéciale) Pays chef de file centre de coordination UN-ECE : Convention on Long Range Transboundary Air Pollution, INERIS involvment

  4. Use of Air quality modelling….. Air quality mapping : • Acidification/Eutrophisation effects • Ground level ozone • POPs and HM • PM purposes (since 2004) Trends analysis : • As a complementary tool of measurement stations Integrated Assessment Modelling (IAM) : • Evaluation of the environmental and health effects of Air Quality Policies with respect to their cost • Sources/receptor matrices calculations all over Europe • Uncertainties analysis EMEP (MSC-West) and RAINS (IIASA) models are the « official »tools in the European framework

  5. French contribution for AQ modelling CHIMERE is used since 2001 by INERIS to develop the french expertise and involvment on the modelling aspects…. • To check the EMEP results for base cases (current situation) but also for emission reduction scenario runs (2010-2020) through models intercomparison exercises • TFMM intercomparison project (TNO) : comparison against observations • City-Delta project (CAFE) : downscaling purposes • Eurodelta Project (TFMM) : source/receptor matrices evaluation • To help to define alternative emission reduction policies • Efficiency of the national emission ceilings approach? • Relevance of sectoral approach? • Geographical heterogeneity • To contribute to the development of European tools • See City-Delta consequences

  6. Organized by the TNO (NL) • Focused on Ozone and PM 50km*50km modelling. • Models involved : EMEP, LOTOS (NL), REM3 (DE), MATCH (S), DEHM (D), CHIMERE (F) TFMM intercomparison exercise - 2003 Intercomparaison TFMM (TNO)-NMSE O3

  7. Intercomparaison TFMM (TNO)-Corrélation O3 Resultats O3….

  8. Intercomparaison TFMM (TNO) PM10 (a) corrélations (b) scatter plots/observations

  9. CITY-DELTA exercise • Organized by IIASA and JRC (Ispra) for the CAFE program • Focused on Ozone and PM 50km*50km regional modelling and 5km*5km local modelling. • Base case and emission reducion scenarios • Models involved in the « part 2 »: EMEP, LOTOS (NL), REM3 (DE), MATCH (S), CHIMERE (F) to model the situation over Paris, Milan Prague and Berlin areas • Consequences: • Model intercomparison over cities areas • Evaluation of the robustness of the modelling approach for regulatory purposes • Statistical definition of « urban signals », for PPM2.5, to be implemented in RAINS as a correction of regional EMEP results over cities areas

  10. EURODELTA exercise • Organized by the TFMM and MSC-W • Focused on Ozone and PM 50km*50km regional modelling and sources/receptor matrices computations • Models involved in the « part 2 »: EMEP, LOTOS (NL), REM3 (DE), MATCH (S), CHIMERE (F)

  11. Sensitive areas - Ozone (2000-2020) UK Italy Benelux Spain Big Cities

  12. NOx total deposition: - « hot spots » computed with MATCH - Lower values for LOTOS -CHIMERE and EMEP very similar

  13. CHIMERE - EMEP O3 - 2020 + Italian reduction NOx scen VOC scen Differences fromthe « base case » transposed to the others

  14. Further applications : french analysis of emission reduction policies • Looking for new emission reduction hypothesis (2010-2020), as an alternative solution to national emission ceilings… • French runs made with CHIMERE • ….Compared to results given by « EMEP-Unified » • Sectoral approach : cooperation with CITEPA and economists team

  15. (ktonnes) SO2 NOx COV NH3 2000 654 1441 1726 784 CLE 400 858 1100 791 461 990 953 857 Optinec 375 810 1050 780 GOT + NEC Example : National scenarios for 2010 • Pollutants : SO2, NOx, COV, NH3 • Référence : 2000 • CLE : Current Legislation Emissions ; IIASA (Autriche) • GOT + NEC : Goteborg Protocol outside EU • OPTINEC : french emission projections for 2010 (CITEPA)

  16. Mean of daily ozone peaks…. Consequences for a 2003 year like 180-190 mg/m3

  17. Could a sectoral approachbe efficient?….

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