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What Matrix Gaming is and how and when to do it.

What Matrix Gaming is and how and when to do it. 19 ISMOR 30th August Michael Young. Matrix Gaming: ISMOR 19. The need Matrix Gaming fills. How do you do a Matrix Game? Illustrated by means of example study - Unmanned Submarine selection. When we should use Matrix Gaming.

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What Matrix Gaming is and how and when to do it.

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  1. What Matrix Gaming is and how and when to do it. 19 ISMOR 30th August Michael Young

  2. Matrix Gaming: ISMOR 19 • The need Matrix Gaming fills. • How do you do a Matrix Game? Illustrated by means of example study - Unmanned Submarine selection. • When we should use Matrix Gaming. View this as a slide show

  3. The need Matrix Gaming fills • Build Scenarios • Structure Judgement • Avoiding Pitfalls Preconceived Ideas Waffling On Rank Emotions Personality Boredom

  4. Matrix Gaming: ISMOR 19 • The need Matrix Gaming fills. • How do you do a Matrix Game? Illustrated by means of example study - Unmanned Submarine selection. • When we should use Matrix Gaming. View this as a slide show

  5. “Procurement” Game.

  6. Is it militarily useful? Is this technically possible? How much does this cost?

  7. MoD Mine Warfare Expert Engineer UUV Analyst UUV Engineer Costings Expert UUV Manufacturer Costings Expert MoD Operational Analyst Naval Analyst MoD Operational Analyst Engineer UUV designer Historical and costings Expert Naval Expert Costings Expert Wargaming Expert Naval Expert

  8. Move 1 : 2002 to 2015: Suggested spend. • How would your team spend up to £200m on Unmanned Submarines over the next 12 years? • What capabilities will you be providing? • In what scenarios? • Will this be politically acceptable? • Is the spend profile plausible? • Decide on the characteristics then prepare a 5 minute presentation on the concept.

  9. Specification Spreadsheet

  10. HVR FACET Model

  11. Example Matrix Game Move: Technology Improvements. • What is the technical change that you expect to occur in the next 12 years that will have the greatest impact on the capabilities of Unmanned Subs? • State what the change is. • State 3 reasons why the change will happen.

  12. NOTICE !! • Each team says: • One thing they think would happen • Up to three reasons why it would happen

  13. Write Description • Detailed description of the single most important thing that happens. This should be specific. • “The development of Al2/O2 Fuel Cell technology will allow energy densities 3 to 4 times those possible today with Lithium Ion Batteries”. • NOT “Super Batteries appear”

  14. Supporting reasons • The three reasons are “Marked” by a judge. • 1) No reason or Stupid reason 0% • 2) Plausible Reason 10%. • 3) Good Reason 20% • 4) Very Good reason 30% • 5) Excellent reason 40% • Result between 0 and 120% • Counter arguments reduce by 0-40% • Roll the dice!

  15. Supporting reasons • Up to three reasons why this may happen. • 1) This is predicted by this document I’ve got (see page)... • 2) Existing Fuel Cells are able to perform this well in the lab. • 3) This would make an effective Unmanned Submarine, when accompanied by improvements in navigation. 30% Good reason 15% Quite good reason 0% - NOT A REASON - An effect and another action

  16. Other “Procurement Game” questions • How would your project cope with a 30% budget cut? • Would your project have “political” difficulties? • What would go wrong with the other team’s projects? • Describe a scenario where your project would do particularly well.

  17. “Combat” Game.

  18. Unclassifed Example: Minelaying? SEA SCUD

  19. “Combat” Game Map of Game in Progress

  20. Matrix arguments RED move 1 • What occurs: Between D-30 and D day, 2 ground mines are laid on each of the ten principle rig-shore oil pipelines, using SeaScuds, set to actuate at D+5 • Reason 1: Promotes objective of cutting off oil supplies + 30% • Reason 2: Covert measure- does not alert BLUE about our intentions +30% • Reason 3: Difficult to counter + 20% • Response: Pipelines are surveyed by maintenance ROVs, that may pick them up: Satellites may pick up the SeaScuds. -35% • Result: 16/45% These mines were laid, and activated. Two out of the five pipelines were severed

  21. Map at Move 2 Coins = breaks in Oil pipelines (attacked by SeaScud) SBS, frigate and helicopter brought up Fishing boats deployed to annoy BLUE and lay mines Beached Sea Scud

  22. Map at Move 3 BLUE Amphibious forces “poise” in mid Gulf Coins = breaks in Oil pipelines BLUE Semi-Submersibles used to check pipelines for mines RED frigate deploys forward and then launches SeaScuds at remaining pipeline SeaScuds attack oil terminals BLUE Exclusion zone forces RED to redeploy Fishing flotilla Marlin (RDS sensor package) deployed off oil rig to check for SeaScud movement.

  23. Matrix Gaming: ISMOR 19 • The need Matrix Gaming fills. • How do you do a Matrix Game? Illustrated by means of example study - Unmanned Submarine selection. • When we should use Matrix Gaming. View this as a slide show

  24. What we ought to model (scenario outcome sensitive) Everything that could be modelled Everything we know how to model Links to lower level OA MATRIX GAME Results

  25. Conclusions: Use Matrix Gaming • Build Scenarios • Structure Judgement • Avoiding Pitfalls Preconceived Ideas Waffling On Rank Emotions Personality Boredom Fun

  26. End of presentation

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