Presentation Transcript

1. Learning from the energy transition in four OECD Countries Germany, Italy, Japan, Switzerland

   Dr Fulcieri Maltini Dr Jean-Roger Mercier November 2012
2. Overview Germany, Italy, Japan and Switzerland are currentlyimplementing an energy transition away from nuclear power and givingpriority to energy conservation and renewables, Motivations behind these transitions vary and so do their pace, costs and fundings, This presentation tries to distilllessons from these transitions thatcanapply to Europe and France.
3. Germany - background Historically, a divided country after WW2 reuniting in 1990 and requiringhigh power supply for itsreunification and industrial development: 4,140 TWh/year in 1990 Politically, a strongsurge of the Green party (« die Grünen ») thatmakes, from the onset, nuclear phasing-out as one of itskeytargets A strong energy efficiency policy has allowed a 10% power demandreduction, withonly 3,715 TWh consumed in 2011
4. Germany - Strategy In 2000, the socialist-green coalition puts a moratorium on nuclear power in the country The decisionisreversed by the MerkelGovernment in 2010, at a time when nuclear produces 11% of Germany’s primary energy And in 2011, the politicaldecisioncomes to phase out nuclear entirelywithseveralpotential deadlines,
5. Germany – the plan(s) Energiewende (energy transition) becomes a householdname and the world looks at Germany for guidance and enlightment March of 2011: 8 nuclear plants are closed down Summer of 2011: the legal package adoptedprojects the end of nuclear generation by 2022 Many challenges have been identified
6. Germany – objectives for 2050 GreenhouseGas (GHG) emissionreduction: 80 to 95% (ref. 1990) Renewables in the overall energy balance 60% Ditto in gross power production 80% Primary energy production (ref 2008) - 50% Electric power consumption (ditto) - 25%
7. Germany 2050 – Renewables Lion’sshare to wind 170 TWh (113 offshore) Biomass and photovoltaics 40 TWh each Hydro: stable at 24 TWh In all, 80% of domestic power production, and needingcreative network management to compensate for volatility Anotherhuge challenge: extending the transmission gridat a pace of 470 km/year vs 35 atpresent.
8. Opportunities and euros The decentralized management of the country opens up great local opportunies and several « cantons » are alreadygenerating more energy thanthey consume (« positive energy ») DIW’sprognosis: up to 800 billion € to spend over the coming 50 years. Increases of consumer prices have begun and are confrontedwithcriticism and protests.
9. Italy - Background End of WW2: Italy relies almostexclusively on hydro (88% of power generation) 1990: thermal power has taken over the lead (63%), with hydro down to 16% and electricty imports making up for the rest (12%) After a briefattempt to develop nuclear, the Italian people, in a 1990 referendum followingChernobyl, rejectfurther nuclear power development.
10. Italy – the historic referendum Under the pressure of the French, the Berlusconi governmentembarks on a new referendum in 2011, hoping to reintroduce nuclear Over 90% of the votersreject nuclear again and the Italiangovernment moves forward Targets of 17% renewables by 2020, inferior to the European average, are set
11. Italy – Local Power After the referendum, municipalities and regions are encouraged to developtheirown power generation/conservation programs By2012, over 400,000 local power generationunits of various dimensions wereoperationalacross the country and over 95% municipalities, large cities as well as small villages, wereequippedwith multiple sources of energy mix
12. Italy – Renewablepresent Growth in the number of municipalitiesequippedwithrenewable energy generationisspectacular: from 3,190 in 2008 to 7,986 in 2011, As a result, Italycomes second in Europe for solar power generation (12,750 MW vs 24,700 for Germany) Energy mixes are adapted to local resourceavailability (solar, wind, biomass, geothermal, hydro)
13. Italy – the pionneer Large solar thermal power generation plants are alsobeinginstalled and run: 30 MW in Sicily in operation, more planned in this range Wind farms are multiplying and Italyisthirdproduced behind Germany and Spain Biomass use ismaximizedwithvarioussubstrates and processes: e.g. fermentation of wine production by-products, biogas distribution in local naturalgas grids, biogas in vehicles, ….
14. Italy – more good news Energy efficiency and conservation are highlydeveloped Smart grids and smart meters (over 30 million unitssold and installed) complement the approach As of 2012, 23 municipalitieswereselling more energy thantheywereproducing Energy storageisdiversified and is putting Italyat the forefront of thiscriticalelement of Energiewende.
15. Italy – Towards 2020 - Objectives Primary energy demand - 4% (reference 2010). Stable power demand Renewables 20% of final energy demand and 38% superior of gas’s The required 180 billion € investment to beallocatedat 72% for renewables and remaining 28 % for conventionalsectors (extraction, oil & gas production and transportation, GNL regazeification and thermal power plant construction)
16. Japan – Recovering from the trauma The thirdlargest power consumer in the world, Japan started, in the late 40’s with a simple energy mix: coal 50%, hydro 33%. In the early 70’s, nuclear comes into the picture and ishailed as a miracle source for an oil importer, Nuclear share in power production grew from 4% in 1973 to 24% in 2009 in spite of activists’ protest, overheated after each nuclear accident (TMI, Chernobyl)
17. The Fukushima turning point The vastmajority of Japanese, however, werefollowing suit with the nuclear lobby, verywellorganized under the auspices of the powerfulNippon Keidanren 54 nuclear power plants were in operation in early 2011, And then Fukushima happened and, beyond the human/economicdrama, exposed the lack of preparation and the ineffectiveness of TepCo and the JapaneseGovernment
18. Eighteenmonthslater… The situation isyet to bestabilized in Fukushima and surroundings (e.g. sea pollution) The Japanesegovernment, under the pressure of the street, had to revise and deeplymodifyits energy plans All nuclear plants wereclosed and their production rapidlysubstitutedwith thermal plants
19. Prospects Japan will have difficulties meeting itscarbonemissionreductiontargets if the ban on nuclear isconfirmed The new target (- 20% by 2030 vs the previous – 25% by 2020) isheavilycritized by local activists Japan plans to spendnearly 500 b US$ on renewables in the comingtwodecades No costestimate for Energiewende seems to have been produced/discussed
20. Switzerland - background After WW2, the country wasrelyingprimarily on hydro, thenattempted to introduce nuclear The accident at the Lucens nuclear experimental power plant in 1969 killed the public sector program In parallel, between 1969 and 1984, the privatesectorbuilt five nuclear power plants that are in operation and provide 3.2 of the 20 GW national power demand
21. Switzerland after Fukushima March 25, 2011, the Federalcouncilopts out of nuclear, programming the closing of the 5 existingplants between 2019 and 2034, possiblyearlier for Mühlenbergthat has similarfeatureswith Fukushima The FederalGovernmentisactivelypreparing a national energy law to beadopted by Parliament in end of 2012 and subjected to referendum in 2014
22. Key features of the Energiewende Focus on energy efficiency, withtargets of demandreduction of 70 TWh and 20 TWh resp. for total energy and electricitydemandreduction by 2050 Priority to energy conservation measures in houses and offices Reliance on rapid take-off of a variety of renewables
23. Noteworthy 2050 targets Photovoltaics + 10 TWh Wind + 4 TWh Geothermal + 4.4 TWh Wood biomass + 1.1 TWh Biogas + 1.4 TWh Hydro + 3.2 TWh
24. Parallelprocesses Three « popular initiatives » launched Closing of all nuclear plants by 2023 Cleantech: to accelerate energy efficiency and renewables development Ecological fiscal reform Several « cantons », opposed to nuclear, have set theirown bans (e.g. Geneva whichgets 87% of energy from renewables and imports the rest)
25. Costing The Cleantech initiative has been costed by the University of Lausanne The losers wouldbeimporters (0.6 billion CHF over 2012-2030, power producers 3.1 and the FederalTreasury 2.1)… In exchange for 21-26 b CHF increase in GDP, or 2% and the creation of 15,000 jobs
26. What lessons for France and Europe? France lives in the economiccrisis mode. The Fukushima shock has largely been forgotten and the nuclear lobby isstrong as ever France is, however, increasinglyisolated in the refusal of the Energiewende In the four countries studiedhere, the Energiewende is in place and central as well as local governments are marching. France’scentralizationisalso a handicap.
27. France and Europe Adding to the French delayis the inertia of a system thattook 11 years to transpose the European Directive 2001/42 on the environmental assessment on plans and programs in the energy sector The only viable solution can come from Europe, which has the tools and mechanisms to help integratethese Energiewende into a stable and effective system. Will therebe the politicialwill?