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COIN and Afghanistan

COIN and Afghanistan. Theo Farrell, CSI Lecture 6, 2011. JCS options (13-15 Sept). (a) cruise missile attacks; (b) longer bombing campaign; (c) large-scale invasion CIA Plan: money, SOF + airpower. US demands. Hand over leaders of al-Qaeda Close all terrorist camps

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COIN and Afghanistan

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  1. COIN and Afghanistan Theo Farrell, CSI Lecture 6, 2011

  2. JCS options (13-15 Sept) (a) cruise missile attacks; (b) longer bombing campaign; (c) large-scale invasion CIA Plan: money, SOF + airpower

  3. US demands • Hand over leaders of al-Qaeda • Close all terrorist camps • Give US full access to verify closure • Release all foreign nationals held captive • Protect foreigners (including aid workers) President Bush statement to Joint Session of Congress, 20 September 2011

  4. Balance of forces

  5. Operation Enduring Freedom • Coalition air offensive (7-19 Oct 2001). • US/UK special forces supported Northern Alliance offensive in northern Afghanistan (late Oct – Nov 2001). • US/UK-led land offensive in southern Afghanistan (Dec 2001 – July 2002).

  6. Campaign milestones • Mazar-e-Sharif (10 Nov) • Kabul (13 Nov) • Konduz (26 Nov) • Kandahar (6 Dec) • Tora Bora (17 Dec) • Paktia (March, May)

  7. Political development • UN Bonn Conference, Dec 2001 • Transitional Authority up to mid 2002 • Loya Jirga elects Hamid Karzai as President, June 2002 • Presidential elections, 2004 and 2009 • Parliamentary elections, 2005 and 2010

  8. Campaign incoherence

  9. Operational Progress • Protect the population • ANSF development • Growth of sub-national governance • Military momentum

  10. CIVCAS (2009-Oct 2010)

  11. ANSF numbers

  12. Not perfect but popular

  13. The best counterinsurgents?

  14. Goverment-in-a-box?

  15. Sub-national governance • 80+ KTD • District Delivery Prog: 14 of 80 by Sept 2010 • NSP + ASOP producing results

  16. Evidence of progress

  17. Obama’s War

  18. Main effort: the South

  19. Op MOSHTARAK

  20. Strategic obstacles • Government corruption • NATO war-weariness • Insurgent safe havens in Pakistan

  21. Fall in public support (%)

  22. The Transition Strategy

  23. Most likely scenario “Continued operational progress is most unlikely to produce desired strategic outcomes.”

  24. Relearning the principles of COIN • Political-led campaign • Population = COG • Isolate the insurgent • Operate within the law • Minimum use of force

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