ENSEMBLES Kickoff Meeting Hamburg - September 2004 RT6 Assessments of impacts of climate change

1. ENSEMBLES Kickoff Meeting Hamburg - September 2004 RT6 Assessments of impacts of climate change Andy Morse, University of Liverpool - WP6.3 (A.P.Morse@liv.ac.uk) Colin Prentice, University of Bristol - WP6.1 (Colin.Prentice@bristol.ac.uk) Tim Carter, Finnish Environment Institute (SKYE) - WP6.2 (tim.carter@ymparisto.fi) RT6 ENSEMBLES Kickoff Hamburg September 2004

2. WP6.1 Global changes in biophysical and biogeochemical processes – integrated analysis of impacts and feedbacks. Leader: UNIVBRIS Participants: UREADMM, PIK, ULUND, METO-HC, CNRS-IPSL WP6.2 Linking impact models to probabilistic scenarios of climate change Leader: SYKE, UEA Participants: UREADMM, ULUND, UKOELN, NOA, DISAT, PAS, FMI, SMHI, UNIK, DIAS WP6.3 Impact modelling at seasonal-to-decadal time scales. Leader: UNILIV. Participants: UREADMM, ARPA-SIM, JRC-IPSC, METEOSWISS, LSE, FAO, WINFORMATICS, IRI, EDF, DWD. 27 partners & 11 countries - 141 months in first 18 - total budget €1,962,000 RT6 ENSEMBLES Kickoff Hamburg September 2004

3. The end-to-end approach the role of impacts/application partners Consultation with impacts groups from the conception of the project and input to ongoing decision making Defining fields and interval for data archiving (within reason) Each impact or application (model) will have a required level of skill from the probabilistic driving variables to make forecasts of economic value Therefore impacts/application users will define skill targets for probabilistic forecasting systems and carry out an important part of the final validation Impacts/application partners should develop their models, where possible, to make use of ‘skill-in-hand’ of current probabilistic seasonal forecasting systems RT6 ENSEMBLES Kickoff Hamburg September 2004

4. RT6 ENSEMBLES Kickoff Hamburg September 2004

5. The integration of process models of impacts on the natural and managed global environment into Earth System Models. Linking impact models to probabilistic scenarios of climate change. Maximizing skill in the impacts models driven by seasonal-to-decadal scale forecasting. RT6 ENSEMBLES Kickoff Hamburg September 2004

6. WP6.1 Global changes in biophysical and biogeochemical processes – integrated analysis of impacts and feedbacks. Work towards fully integrated European- and global-scale assessments of the impacts of changes in CO2 and climate on vegetation structure, function and productivity, forest and arable crop productivity, terrestrial carbon cycling and freshwater supply Consider the potential for feedbacks from these changes to the atmosphere and climate. 18 month activity To set up the input data Model developments for (a) global implementation of managed forests, and (b) global implementation of crops. Perform first set of offline model runs for the recent past, present and future. RT6 ENSEMBLES Kickoff Hamburg September 2004

7. WP6.2 Linking impact models to probabilistic scenarios of climate change. Five Year Overview Modelling behaviour of systems or activities in different environments developed, tested and applied under European conditions for evaluating the potential impacts of climate change. Task 6.2.a Response surfaces and impact thresholds. Task 6.2.b Scenario impacts and risk assessment Task 6.2.c Evaluating the impacts of extreme events. 18 month plan first phase of testing climate extremes models – wind, flood, drought etc. Preparation of impact response surfaces for climate change scenarios against baseline data RT6 ENSEMBLES Kickoff Hamburg September 2004

8. 9 RCMs ~50km … A22 RCMs ~25km … A2 3 RCMs ~50km … B2 2 GCMs RT6 ENSEMBLES Kickoff Hamburg September 2004

9. WP6.3 Impact modelling at seasonal-to-decadal time scales. * Activity starting in first 18 months Maximizing skill in the impacts models driven by seasonal-to-decadal scale forecasting. Closely tied to WP5.5 – Tier-1, Tier-2 and Tier-3 validation Development of Integration Methodology includes downscaling and bias correction (working with other RTs) Downscaling and bias correction for ensemble hindcasts* Integration of seasonal-to-decadal application models within an EPS (DEMETER)* Assessment of GCM vs. RCM driven seasonal-to-decadal application models. Gaining the maximum skill from an EPS seasonal-to-decadal scale integration Quantification of EPS skill requirements at seasonal-to-decadal timescales for application models. RT6 ENSEMBLES Kickoff Hamburg September 2004

10. WP6.3 from Morse et al. 2004, CLIVAR Exchanges RT6 ENSEMBLES Kickoff Hamburg September 2004

11. Issues and Linkages arising within RT6 • Timely and easy access to data – already in discussion RT1, RT2a, RT2b, RT3 and RT5 • Effective use of downscaling tools – already in discussion with RT2B, RT3 and RT2a • RT5 for validation – with WP6.3 and WP5.5 directly linked • Interest in RT4 findings • RT7 economic impacts RT6 ENSEMBLES Kickoff Hamburg September 2004